10 Best MLB home run season prop bets
We are spoilt for choice with preseason home run prop bets. Alongside the standard most home runs market, we can bet on over/unders for big names, and pick players to hit over 20, 30, 40, 50, or 60 homers in the 2025 regular season.
DraftKings even offers five-homer intervals to wager on. You can take your favorite hitter to hit 15 or more bombs. Maybe you are more confident and want to back them to get into Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge territory with 50 or more.
Here are our 10 best home run season props:
Marcell Ozuna to lead the majors in home runs — +5500 at DraftKings
Only three hitters had more expected homers than Marcell Ozuna in 2024. Ozuna was admittedly a fair distance behind the leading trio of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto, but his expected number of 42.7 put him ahead of some truly elite power hitters.
A 114.8 mph maximum exit velocity shows the peak power is still there. The last two seasons have been the highest barrel rates of Ozuna’s career, with 79 home runs hit in the process.
Still in the 81st percentile in bat speed, Ozuna has the power to hit 45+ home runs. Only Ohtani, Judge, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber have hit more since the 2021 campaign.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit 40+ home runs — +300 at FanDuel
Walk year Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is more than a dark horse for MVP. Guerrero’s 2024 would have got more praise if the Toronto Blue Jays had been at least semi-competitive.
The first baseman enters 2025 after placing in the 95th percentile in bat speed, the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. He led the majors with 48 homers in 2021.
Guerrero doesn’t need to return to the 15.1% barrel rate and 25.2% fly ball rate to break this threshold. He clubbed 16 homers after the break last season – maintain that rate for a full year and he’s got his second 40-homer campaign.
Kerry Carpenter to hit over 20.5 home runs — -110 at FanDuel
Kerry Carpenter hit 18 home runs in 296 plate appearances last season. Comerica Park is the fifth-hardest park for lefties to hit homers in, but that didn’t stop Carpenter.
The lefty also had 20 homers in 118 games in 2023. For his career, he’s got an .897 OPS against right-handers, and he had a 17.7% barrel rate in 2024. Pair that with a 37.5% fly ball rate and you’ve got a home run machine (against opposite-handed pitching, at least).
This line is a couple of home runs too low, even with an unfavorable home park.
Fernando Tatis to hit 40+ home runs — +255 at FanDuel
This is the second time in this article we are backing the son of a former MLB player to hit 40+ home runs. The argument is similar, too, with Fernando Tatis Jr. building up to replicate his 2021 performance (42 bombs).
Availability – both injury and suspension – has been a problem for Tatis. In 2023, he was a shadow of his former self. In 2024, he amassed 2.6 bWAR in 102 games and hit 21 regular season home runs.
Tatis was even better at the plate than those numbers suggest. He was in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 96th percentile in expected slugging, and posted the highest exit velocity of his career. If he plays 150+ games, this bet is very much within reach.
Christian Walker to hit 30+ home runs — -102 at FanDuel
Christian Walker hit 36 home runs in 2022, 33 in 2023, and 26 in 2024. His tally dropped last season due to playing only 130 games. Walker was still in the 89th percentile in bat speed, the 90th percentile in barrel rate, and his 42.6% pull rate over the last three seasons is in the top 50 among right-handers.
Walker is also an expert at elevating. His flyball rate over that period is higher than Jorge Soler, Pete Alonso, and Salvador Perez.
The majority of his home runs last season were pulled down the left field line. Assisted by the Crawford Boxes, we are expecting a massive year from the veteran first baseman.
Oneil Cruz to hit 30+ home runs — +235 at FanDuel
Oneil Cruz has 40 career homers in 244 games, so this might seem a bit ambitious.
The tools, though, are undeniably there for Cruz to be a 30-homer hitter (and, if we’re honest, he could climb into the 40 or 45 range). He was seventh in hard-hit rate and third in average exit velocity last season.
Lifting the ball has been the problem. Of the top 21 in hard-hit rate, Cruz was in the bottom five in launch angle. Of players with a 39% or better hard-hit rate over the last three seasons, Ronald Acuña Jr. is the only player with a higher groundball rate.
Hitting over 20 homers last season despite hitting the ball into the ground so often shows his raw power. If he elevates a bit more often, he could have 30 homers before the trade deadline.
Austin Riley to hit over 30.5 home runs — -110 at FanDuel
Twelfth in hard-hit rate and 10th in exit velocity last season, Austin Riley had much better underlying numbers than his final stats indicated. He was a long way below his xSLG, for example, and the sportsbooks have overreacted.
Injury played a part, keeping him to 110 games. The Atlanta Braves third baseman had missed a total of eight games over the previous three seasons, however, averaging 35 homers per 162 games over that span.
We would take the over even if this was up at 32.5, and maybe at 33.5. Riley is a truly elite hitter however we look at it, and half of his games are played in the homer-friendly confines of Truist Park.
Michael Toglia to hit over 23.5 home runs — -122 at FanDuel
The irrelevance of the Colorado Rockies means breakouts like Michael Toglia are often overlooked. Not only is Toglia a player to target in fantasy baseball, but he’s also a great player to back for this home run prop.
Toglia has 25 home runs in 458 plate appearances last season. He plays half his games at Coors Field, where a player in the 91st percentile in exit velocity and the 98th percentile in barrel rate can effortlessly hit dingers.
The price has shortened since these markets went live, so we’d recommend jumping on this as soon as possible. Toglia is a candidate to hit 35+ bombs.
Marcus Semien to hit 25+ home runs — -105 at DraftKings
Globe Life Field is the fourth-best park for right-handers to hit home runs. Marcus Semien – due to luck rather than skill – only had 23 home runs from 26.2 expected homers last season.
In non-COVID seasons, Semien has missed four games since 2018. He is the ultimate ironman, making him a reliable option for season-long props. The 2024 campaign was the first time since 2018 that we’ve had a full season where Semien hasn’t hit 25 homers.
Ageing is inevitable for a player going into his age-34 season. Semien has never smoked the ball, yet his numbers haven’t significant decreased over the last couple of seasons. His maximum exit velocity in 2024 was actually the highest of his career.
Brent Rooker to hit 50+ home runs — +750 at FanDuel
Brent Rooker and the Athletics are taking a step into the unknown with their move to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The Oakland Coliseum was the fifth-hardest place for right-handers to hit homers over the last three seasons, but that didn’t stop Rooker notching 39 bombs in 2024.
Sacramento is considerably warmer than Oakland. The ball should carry further. It is also part of the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League where big-time offensive numbers are posted.
Rooker – who embraces analytics as much as any hitter in the majors – has downplayed the impact the park change will have. He’s probably right that it’s not going to be Coors Field 2.0, but it’s bound to be a better place to hit than the Coliseum.
Reaching a half-century of homers is certainly plausible for a hitter with a 16.6% barrel rate, 18.9-degree launch angle, and 34.7% fly ball rate in 2024.
2 Comments
Comments are closed.