
10 key storylines to follow when betting on the 2025 MLB season
The 2025 MLB season is packed with intriguing storylines. Juan Soto has moved across New York. Roki Sasaki has joined a super-team in Los Angeles. The Houston Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs.
Elsewhere, the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Boston Red Sox made marquee free-agent additions. The New York Yankees bounced back from Soto’s departure with a string of big-name acquisitions.
Here are the Top MLB Storylines to follow as spring training heats up.
Aces On The Shelf
Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, Kodai Senga, Blake Snell, Brandon Woodruff, and numerous other All-Star caliber pitchers missed considerable time in 2024. Strider and Woodruff are not expected to be healthy for opening day.
Multiple Cy Young-contending pitchers are bound to see their chances disappear due to injury list stints.
Shane Bieber, Patrick Sandoval, Alek Manoah, Braxton Garrett, Cristian Javier, Gavin Stone, and Joe Musgrove are among the arms with no timetable for return. Alex Cobb, Paul Blackburn, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Nestor Cortes, and Lucas Giolito are questionable at best for opening day.
It’s not only Cy Young betting that will be impacted by injuries. Pitchers missing time can derail a team’s season.
Small-Market Minor League Parks
Another one of this season’s top MLB storylines has to be the temporary changes in venue for several teams. The Tampa Bay Rays and the Athletics are calling minor-league ballparks home in 2025. Using George M. Steinbrenner Field and Sutter Health Park, respectively, the two franchises are taking a leap into the relative unknown.
While they got here for very different reasons – Hurricane Milton for the Rays, John Fisher’s desire to relocate for the A’s – the two small-market teams are facing the same uncertainty in 2025.
No one really knows how these parks will play as full-time MLB venues. Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is going to be scorching in mid-summer. George M. Steinbrenner Field has been used in spring training since 1996, but we haven’t seen how it plays when the weather heats up.
It’s expected both parks will be more hitter-friendly than the stadia they’ve replaced. Only time will tell how true that proves to be. Bettors should also keep an eye out for the Rays and A’s adapting to their new surroundings. This could perhaps increase their homefield advantage.
Lively Midseason Trade Market
Some difference-makers could be available at the trade deadline and that will certainly be one of this season’s top MLB storylines. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, Mike Yastrzemski, and Kyle Schwarber are set to become free agents at the end of the 2025 campaign.
Not all of them will be on the market, of course, and some will inevitably sign extensions. All it takes is for a team to underachieve, though, and some high-level talent could be on the move.
It’s not far-fetched that the Astros drop-off. Valdez would be a huge pickup for any team this summer. Maybe the Toronto Blue Jays never work out an extension with Guerrero, forcing a bidding war from contenders.
How Good is the AL Central?
Despite three teams making the playoffs and the Minnesota Twins competing for a postseason berth deep into the campaign, the American League Central once again projects to be MLB’s weakest division.
The Twins are the only AL Central team – per Depth Charts – to rank in the top 10 in fWAR. They are 10th. The Detroit Tigers are 17th, ahead of the Kansas City Royals (18th), and Cleveland Guardians (21st).
The Chicago White Sox probably won’t be the worst team ever again. Yet they are still ranked 29th in projected WAR. Even if the ChiSox improve by a handful of games, it will make that bit more difficult for their divisional foes to take two of the three wild-card spots.
Keep an eye on how Central teams perform against non-division opponents. FanDuel and DraftKings have set the line between 82.5 and 84.5 wins for the Twins, Guardians, Royals, and Tigers.
Mired in Misery
PECOTA projects the Colorado Rockies to lose over 106 games. Depth Charts also has the Rockies producing the least fWAR among all 30 MLB teams. Colorado’s 101-loss 2024 was overshadowed by the historically awful White Sox.
Chicago isn’t going to take a jump forward, yet their -220 price (FanDuel) to finish with the worst record still seems too short. The Rockies are up against the Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres in the NL’s strongest division.
The Miami Marlins have leaked more talent over the last 12 months, trading away Jazz Chisholm, Luis Arraez, and Jake Burger. Several of their pitchers are hurt.
Both the Marlins and Rockies are a better option than the White Sox to finish with the worst record. Look out for the Los Angeles Angels at +3800 if Mike Trout gets hurt again, too.
Prospect Impact
Beyond top prospect Roki Sasaki adding yet more firepower to a stacked Dodgers team, there are plenty of prospects who could have an immediate impact on contending teams in 2025.
After years of hype, injuries, and high rankings on the annual prospect charts, Jasson Domínguez is finally ready to fill the Soto-shaped hole in the Yankees outfield. How good can he be in his age-22 season? New York’s offense could do with Domínguez stepping up in Soto’s absence.
On the other side of the sport’s fiercest rivalry, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer could elevate the Red Sox from fringe wild-card team to serious contender.
Look out for Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler bolstering the Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotations, respectively. Jordan Lawlar could take an already deep Diamondbacks lineup to another level. Meanwhile, Bryce Eldridge might be the big bat the Giants have been looking for.
Burnes Pains For Baltimore
Baltimore is home to another of this season’s top MLB storylines. The Orioles lost Corbin Burnes in free agency. Veteran Tomoyuki Sugano, with no MLB experience, is the replacement. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are unlikely to pitch in 2025. This leaves the O’s with a Grayson Rodriguez, Sugano, Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, and Dean Kremer rotation.
None of those pitchers are projected for an ERA better than 3.70. Baltimore’s rotation is 23rd by Depth Chart’s projections.
That’s a big drop in fWAR after ranking eighth last season. The loss of Burnes is massive. There’s upside with Rodriguez, but this group could hold the Orioles back. It’s not a rotation that’s going to win 100 games. Baltimore is +160 to miss the playoffs.
Star-Studded NL East
Soto, Bryce Harper, and Ronald Acuña Jr.are reunited in the National League East. Preseason odds have the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves at -300 or shorter to make the postseason.
All three teams are stacked with talent. The Phils won 95 games last season yet went 28-28 over the last 56 regular season games. They lost to the Mets in four games in the NLDS. Atlanta was swept in the wild-card round but has its two best players returning from injury. New York rode a late-season surge to make the playoffs and reach the NLCS. They then signed Soto on a record-breaking contract.
This division is impossible to call. Atlanta are the narrow favorites at FanDuel, but all three teams are in the top five in projected fWAR.
Mariners Ready To End Division Drought
While it may sound surprising, this could be one of the fun top MLB storylines to follow this season. The Seattle Mariners are projected for the ninth-best offense. They underachieved their Pythagorean win-loss by four wins last season and have retained all of their rotation. This occurred despite some brief offseason trade rumors.
This is a very talented Mariners team. They led the majors in xwOBA allowed last season. Their offense certainly has top 10 upside if Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena enjoy bounce-back seasons.
The AL West is weak on paper. Houston has taken a step back. This is an opportunity for the Mariners to win their first division title since 2001 – jump on their futures if the offense gets rolling early.
Returning and Emerging Stars
Mike Trout, Jacob deGrom, and Clayton Kershaw are returning from injury in 2025. Paul Skenes is embarking on his first full season as an MLB pitcher and enters the campaign as the NL Cy Young favorite.
Both into their forties, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are taking on new challenges with the Giants and Blue Jays, respectively. Roki Sasaki will be playing his first MLB campaign with the highest of expectations.
Will Trout and deGrom stay healthy? How much will the Dodgers need from Kershaw? Could Verlander have one last great season in the hitter-friendly confines of Oracle Park?
Enjoy reading about this season’s top MLB storylines? Then be sure to check out Our Best Win Total Bets, Our Guide to Betting MLB Win Totals, and The Biggest Winners and Losers of the MLB Offseason.
1 Comment
Comments are closed.