5 Key tips for betting on mlb player props

Player props are an immensely popular option for baseball fans looking to place wagers on MLB games. The player props available vary slightly between sportsbooks, which makes betting on MLB props an exciting prospect.

Certain markets are commonplace, including hits, RBIs, home runs, total bases, pitcher strikeouts, and pitcher outs recorded. Other variations are sometimes available like hits, runs, and RBIs combined, earned runs allowed, and whether a player will have an extra-base hit. Betting on MLB props covers all these options.

Player props require bettors to have a different approach from the usual moneyline, runline, and game total markets. It’s also a long way from the MLB win totals strategy we have discussed previously.

So, here are five key tips for anyone keen to bet on MLB player props: Understanding these tips will help in betting on MLB props effectively.

Examine Splits

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference should be your first destinations when looking to research splits. Splits are important whether you’re looking at pitchers or hitters.

This isn’t just about lefty on lefty or hitting opposite-handed pitching. You want to find out how a player has pitched on the road compared with at home, and whether a hitter has been much more productive against starters than relievers. Thorough research is key when betting on MLB props.

There is a catalogue of splits to consider when looking to place MLB player props. Over years, experienced bettors work out which splits are most useful to inform their decisions, but we would suggest it’s worth taking in as much information as possible.

Perhaps a hitter has struggled with RISP throughout his career. It might not be a good idea to take his over on RBIs. Maybe the starting pitcher has a tendency to start seasons lowly before getting into rhythm, meaning he goes under his strikeout line in most of his April and May starts.

Trust Underlying Numbers

It goes without saying that it’s a good idea to look at traditional statistics. If a pitcher has 10 strikeouts in four starts, it’s probably not sensible to bet on over 4.5 strikeouts in their next outing.

Beyond the results-based numbers, bettors should also expand their research by diving into underlying metrics. Baseball Savant and FanGraphs are the places to go for this. You can look at quality of contact, launch angles, sprint speeds, strikeout rates, velocity, and much, much more. These statistics are essential for betting on MLB props successfully.

For a starting pitcher, it’s worthwhile to look at the statistical profile of the lineup he’s facing. If they excel at controlling at the strikezone and rarely swing at pitches outside, it might be a good day to bet on over 1.5 walks.

Similarly, you might notice a player has an excellent barrel rate without great production. This could mean the sportsbooks have given him worse odds than he deserves to hit a homer.

Look For Trends

Has a player recorded an RBI in five consecutive games? Maybe they’ve been crushing the ball but haven’t hit a homer in a couple of weeks. Has a pitcher tweaked his pitch usage and hit this strikeouts over in every start since? Identifying trends is crucial when betting on MLB props.

Trends are the foundation of player props betting. With 162 games in the regular season, fans have reams of data to work their way through.

Look at how the player has performed over the last couple of weeks. See how they’ve fared in similar matchups, and check if there is a significant head-to-head record between the starting pitcher and the hitter (if you’re betting on a hitter’s prop).

Combine this with team-wide trends. If an offense has been white-hot over the last few weeks, RBIs are a better wager than they might have been earlier in the season. If an offense has been ice-cold, there could be value taking the pitcher to give up under 1.5 earned runs.

Compare All Lines

The lines offered for MLB player props can vary substantially between sportsbooks. It’s vital any bettor compares across different platforms before committing to a player prop bet – this could get you a longer price or a bit more margin for error on your wager. This step is essential for anyone betting on MLB props.

BetMGM might have a pitcher’s strikeout line one lower than FanDuel and DraftKings. This will often be a better option, even if the odds are slightly different. It could be Caesars having a slugger at +400 to hit a homer compared with +350 at their rival sportsbooks.

Comparing odds should be part of your pre-bet process whatever market you’re betting on. It is especially important for player props given the range of markets on offer and the likelihood of variance.

Use Park Factors

Head to Baseball Savant for in-depth park factors. It goes far beyond the ball carrying further at Coors Field or the deep right-center field at Oracle Park.

Park factors, courtesy of Statcast, show how different types of hits, walks, and strikeouts are influenced by the ballpark. It’s not all about the dimensions or wall heights, either, with batters’ eyes, weather conditions, and altitude all playing a part, and they all need to be considered when betting on MLB props.

Weather is always a factor to research if you’re betting on an outdoors game. The direction of the wind in San Francisco or Chicago can have a huge impact on a game. If it’s an icy early-season game in Detroit, you’re not going to expect a runfest. Pitchers might be in for a tough time if it’s a heatwave, plus the ball is likely to carry further.

Games played abroad are a leap into the unknown in this category, which can play into a bettor’s advantage given that sportsbooks don’t have data to go on.