Sandman Nation, we’re riding a nice wave after a solid few weeks, capped off by last week’s perfect 3-0 record. We’re now sitting at 7-6 for the season and ready to keep the momentum going. While there aren’t many games we’re feeling strongly about this week, we’ve identified three matchups we believe will deliver. Let’s keep it rolling!
Bills (-1) at Texans
The Bills had a rough showing against the Ravens on Sunday night, but I don’t see them putting together back-to-back poor performances. This offense, while different from years past, may actually be more balanced in the long run. James Cook has added consistency to the running game with his versatility, while Josh Allen remains the dynamic force he’s known to be—explosive and tough to defend. The Bills rank 2nd in turnover margin and average only 5 penalties per game, demonstrating their discipline.
On the other hand, the Texans, while entertaining on offense, have been highly inconsistent and are prone to mistakes. They lead the league in penalties, committing nearly 10 per game, and that lack of discipline could hurt them in critical moments. The Texans also have yet to cover a spread this season, and I expect that trend to continue. While it may be a tight contest, I believe the Bills, motivated and looking for redemption, will pull out the win and cover the spread.
The Pick: Bills -1
Cowboys (+2) at Steelers
Last week, I backed the Colts against the Steelers, and that paid off. I’m following the same strategy here by taking the Cowboys with the points. Despite the Steelers’ 3-1 record, I remain unimpressed. Their defense is solid, but their offense has been mediocre at best. Justin Fields has shown a tendency for mistakes, which the Cowboys’ defense can capitalize on. Coming off a strong performance against the Giants, Dallas seems to have regained some confidence. While their run game is still a concern, as long as they keep getting the ball to CeeDee Lamb, they should be in good shape. I continue to think the Steelers are overachieving, and I expect the Cowboys to come out on top in this one.
The Pick: Cowboys +2
Saints (+5) at Chiefs
After a hot start, the Saints have cooled off, dropping their last two games. They fought hard in a back-and-forth contest against the Falcons but ultimately fell short. Despite the losses, I still like what I’m seeing from their offense, with veteran Derek Carr providing leadership and consistency. Alvin Kamara, defying his age, continues to be a major contributor, ranking 4th in the league in rushing yards. On the other hand, the Chiefs are sitting at 4-0, but they haven’t looked as dominant as expected. While Kareem Hunt has stepped up in Isiah Pacheco’s absence and Mahomes is still delivering, Travis Kelce has been unusually quiet. I think this could be a letdown game for the Chiefs, and the Saints with their 8th-ranked offense are in a good spot to cover the spread.
The Pick: Saints +5
