Well, Sandman Nation, we hit a bit of a snag last week with our worst showing of the season, going 1-4. Disappointing for sure, but we know rough weeks are bound to happen. We now sit at 19-17-1 for the season and the good news is we’re bouncing back with a vengeance—this week we’ve got six games and I feel a hot streak coming!
As for our ATS (Against the Spread) alerts, BYU and Army remain undefeated against the spread, while North Carolina State, Kansas, North Carolina, and Air Force are still winless. We’re betting that two of these streaks come to an end this weekend—check out the picks below to see which teams we’re backing to break the trend!
Oklahoma State (+9.5) at BYU (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
BYU has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, standing undefeated at 6-0. They’ve also been perfect against the spread (ATS), one of only two teams – alongside Army – to achieve that. However, I think that streak could end this weekend. Oklahoma State has struggled recently, losing their last three games to Utah, Kansas State, and West Virginia, and their defense has been particularly poor, allowing over 500 yards per game. That said, they’re coming off a much-needed bye, which likely gave head coach Mike Gundy a chance to make adjustments. With a talented running back like Ollie Gordon, if the Cowboys can control the tempo, take pressure off QB Alan Bowman, and grind out sustained drives, they have a good shot to keep this game close. This number feels like too many to give a team with this much potential—grab the points.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +9.5
Michigan (-3) at Illinois
It’s surprising to see Michigan ranked 110th in total offense, but fortunately for Wolverines fans, their defense has been stellar and has kept them in contention. After some inconsistency at quarterback, Michigan has settled on journeyman Jack Tuttle, who I believe is a significant upgrade over Davis Warren and Alex Orji. While Tuttle isn’t a game-changer, he’s steady enough to make the necessary throws and keep drives alive, allowing the running game, led by Kaleel Mullings, to thrive. Illinois, sitting at 5-1, handed Nebraska their only loss, but their defense looked shaky last weekend against Purdue. I’m expecting Michigan’s offense, with Tuttle under center, to finally click in this game at Champaign. With only a small spread, I’m confident Michigan takes this one.
The Pick: Michigan -3
Louisiana (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina
This is my top pick of the week. Louisiana sits at 5-1, boasting a well-rounded team with a top 45 offense and a top 20 defense. They are disciplined and efficient, ranking 8th in the nation in turnovers (less than one per game) and 11th in penalties, with just 4 per game. They’re well-coached and balanced, heading into a matchup against Coastal Carolina, who is reeling from a blowout loss to James Madison. Louisiana should cover comfortably, winning by at least a touchdown—give the points with confidence.
The Pick: Louisiana -3.5
Auburn at Missouri (-4.5)
Despite their rough loss to Texas A&M two weeks ago, Missouri remains a solid team. Their narrow win over Vanderbilt looks better in hindsight. With QB Brady Cook and the dynamic Luther Burden, Mizzou’s offense can be unstoppable when they’re clicking, and I expect them to hit their stride at home in Columbia this Saturday. Impressively, Missouri has committed just one turnover all season, so they won’t give Auburn any extra opportunities. Auburn’s only wins this season have come against Alabama A&M and New Mexico, and their season seems to be heading downhill fast. Hugh Freeze is feeling the pressure, and it won’t ease up this weekend. Missouri’s well-rounded offense, combined with their underrated Top 20 defense, leads the way for a decisive victory. The Tigers should win comfortably by double digits.
The Pick: Missouri -4.5
Houston at Kansas (-6.5)
Previously, I called for BYU’s unbeaten ATS streak to end, and now I’m turning my attention to Kansas. Winless against the spread this season, the Jayhawks are due for a bounce back. Three of their losses were to tough teams with a combined 15-3 record (Arizona State, UNLV, and Illinois), showing they’ve faced some serious competition. Lance Leipold remains one of the top coaches in college football, and Kansas still has talent on both sides of the ball, led by dynamic quarterback Jalon Daniels. Meanwhile, Houston has been abysmal offensively, barely averaging 300 yards per game. Back at home in Lawrence, expect Kansas to make a statement and rout the Cougars.
The Pick: Kansas -6.5
UCF (+14) at Iowa State
Iowa State has been excellent this season, remaining undefeated and emerging as a strong contender to win the newly expanded Big 12. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve only secured one victory over an FBS team with a winning record—a narrow 20-19 win against in-state rival Iowa back in Week 2. On the other hand, UCF has lost three consecutive games and hasn’t looked sharp, but they still boast a good offense capable of scoring quickly and a decent defense. Despite the challenge of traveling to Ames, I like the Knights getting nearly two touchdowns, so I’d take the points in this one.
The Pick: UCF +14
