After a solid 4-2 week and some good momentum, I was a bit let down by this week’s limited slate of games. As a result, we’re featuring our smallest lineup of the season, spotlighting only three games. I’m confident in these picks but would’ve liked more options to pad our pockets. Still, it’s shaping up to be another fun college football weekend—enjoy, Sandman Nation!
Houston at Arizona (-1.5) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here’s why this might seem like a questionable pick. Houston has won 3 of their last 4 games, including last week’s win over a ranked Kansas State team. Meanwhile, Arizona is on a five-game losing streak and holds a disappointing 1-8 ATS record this season. Despite all this, I’m sticking with my anti-Houston stance, as I have zero confidence in their offense, which ranks among the worst in the country. Their defense is respectable, but Arizona’s QB, Noah Fifita, is capable and should be able to move the ball effectively, even with limited weapons around him. In a week where I’m not sold on many games, I’ll back the Wildcats to grab a much-needed win and cover the small spread.
The Pick: Arizona -1.5
LSU (-4.5) at Florida
Even after the Tigers got crushed by Alabama on Saturday, I’m backing them to handle business in the Swamp. Led by QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU’s offense is still dangerous, averaging over 440 yards per game, and their defense is solid. They now face Billy Napier’s team that just got steamrolled by Texas. Despite their 4-5 record, all of the Gator wins this season have come against teams with losing records. This line feels small, even in a tough environment. Expect the Tigers to bounce back and take out some frustration on the Gators in a strong showing.
The Pick: LSU -4.5
Syracuse (+7) at California
Much like my analysis on Florida, California’s record has been padded by wins against teams with losing records (though one of their victories was over a strong 9-1 FCS team, UC-Davis, in Week 1). These teams are fairly evenly matched across the board, so getting a full touchdown feels generous for the Orange. Syracuse QB Kyle McCord struggled a few weeks back in their blowout loss to Pittsburgh but has since bounced back, racking up nearly 700 yards combined in games against Virginia Tech and Boston College. I like the Orange to keep this one tight, with a chance at a road win, so I’ll gladly take the points here.
The Pick: Syracuse +7
