Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 13
Last week’s slate was small, with only a few games standing out, but we made the most of it, going 2-1 and bringing our season record to 34-30-1. This week, we’re back to a full picksheet with five games we’re confident in. We’re backing four favorites and one big underdog – the Army Black Knights to cover in South Bend. As the college football season winds down, we’re gearing up for another fantastic weekend of action on the gridiron!
Northwestern at Michigan (-12) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Both teams are abysmal on offense, but Michigan has the edge defensively and plays with discipline, averaging just four penalties per game. While Davis Warren might rank among the worst starting quarterbacks Michigan has fielded since the Rich Rod era, he’s shown signs of becoming more comfortable in the offense. I think he can do just enough to keep the Wolverines moving. With this game at the Big House and Michigan fully aware they need this win to stay bowl-eligible ahead of their Ohio State showdown, I expect them to take care of business. I’m confident they’ll win by multiple touchdowns, so I’m comfortable laying the points here.
The Pick: Michigan -12
Ole Miss (-9.5) at Florida
Credit to Billy Napier and Florida for a convincing win over LSU last week – they were the better team from start to finish and earned it. But this week, I don’t see the Gators keeping it competitive. Ole Miss comes into the Swamp with the nation’s #2 offense, racking up 513 yards per game, and a top-20 defense to back it up. Meanwhile, Florida’s offense and defense are both ranked outside the top 90, and their only win over a team with a winning record was last week. With the Rebels coming off a bye, rested and motivated to stay in the CFP hunt, I love Ole Miss in this spot. I expect them to win comfortably by multiple scores.
The Pick: Ole Miss -9.5
Illinois at Rutgers (-1.5)
The past two weeks, my “gut picks” have come through – calls made less on stats and research and more on instinct. Both hit, and I’ve got another one this week. Illinois has three losses, but two were against powerhouses Oregon and Penn State, though they weren’t remotely competitive in either. Rutgers, on the other hand, doesn’t have any standout wins on their résumé and had a rough stretch midseason, losing four straight in ugly fashion. However, they’ve turned things around with two solid wins, including a strong showing against rival Maryland last week. This one feels like a tight battle, but I’ll take the Scarlet Knights at home to cover the small number.
The Pick: Rutgers -1.5
Troy at Louisiana (-11.5)
This one feels like an early Christmas present – I had to triple-check the numbers, and I love it even more after doing so. Louisiana sits at 8-2, though they’re coming off a disappointing loss to a mediocre South Alabama team. That setback should fuel their fire heading into this matchup against a 3-7 Troy squad whose only win over a team with a winning record came last week against 6-4 Georgia Southern. Louisiana boasts a top-12 offense, a top-40 defense, and exceptional ball security, with only six turnovers all season. Playing at home, atop the Sun Belt West, and with a conference title game on the horizon, I expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to dominate and cover easily.
The Pick: Louisiana -11.5
Army (+16) at Notre Dame
Backing an “America’s darling team” against a powerhouse blue blood always makes me hesitant – history often favors the big boys. But there’s something different about this Army squad. They face Notre Dame every year, so they won’t be intimidated walking into this matchup. These teams are evenly matched, with Army and Notre Dame ranking 41st and 42nd in offense and 5th and 6th in defense, respectively. Their ATS records are nearly identical: Army is 7-1-1, while Notre Dame is 7-2-1. Army has only turned the ball over four times all season, and their ability to control the clock and grind out drives will keep this game close. While I expect the Irish to win, the spread feels too large, and I like Army to cover.
The Pick: Army +16
