Bierman’s Best Bets – NFL Week 12
Another strong 2-1 week brings us to 18-14 on the season, and watching the Chiefs fall in Orchard Park made it all the sweeter. This week, we’re rolling with two home underdogs. As we stroll into the final third of the season the stakes are rising, and the matchups are only getting better. Stay tuned, Sandman Nation, and enjoy the action!
Patriots at Dolphins (-7) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Dolphins are clearly a different beast with QB Tua Tagavailoa back under center, riding high on two consecutive wins. Meanwhile, the Patriots, despite some progress, remain a bottom-tier team. Their offense ranks 31st in yards gained, and while their defense is respectable, Miami’s arsenal of weapons will prove too much to handle. On the flip side, Miami’s top 10 defense is primed to give rookie QB Drake Maye fits, likely forcing some costly turnovers. The Dolphins are in must-win territory and understand the stakes – they need a serious win streak to stay in playoff contention. With their key playmakers nearing full strength, I see Miami dominating this divisional clash.
The Pick: Dolphins -7
Eagles at Rams (+3)
The Rams have won three of their last four and, with most of their key players back to full health, are positioning themselves as legitimate contenders for the NFC West despite their 5-5 record. The Eagles, at 8-2, are undeniably strong and seem poised for a deep playoff run, but this matchup feels like a potential trap. Coming off a grueling six-game win streak and a physical divisional showdown against the Commanders, they now face a cross-country trip to take on a rejuvenated Rams team. Getting a field goal at home for a solid squad like the Rams feels like too much value to pass up, thus I’m taking the points.
The Pick: Rams +3
Lions at Colts (+7.5)
It feels strange to even write this, but yes, I’m going against the Lions – and not even with double-digit points on the table. Detroit is the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC and make their first Super Bowl, and if I had to pick a team to win it all this year, it would be them. That said, the Colts are far from a terrible team, and in the NFL, getting more than a touchdown at home is hard to ignore. I expect a high-scoring game here and even considered taking the over (which I rarely do). These two teams have great ATS records with Detroit at 8-2 and Indy at 8-3 so something will have to give. With an improved Anthony Richardson, a dynamic running back in Jonathan Taylor, and a capable receiving corps, I like the Colts to put up enough points to stay within the number.
The Pick: Colts +7.5
