Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 15
Sandman Nation, last week brought a loaded slate, and we rolled out 7 picks. While we finished a modest 3-3-1, we hit our LOCK OF THE YEAR with Tennessee -10.5 over Vanderbilt – hope you cashed in on that one! For the season, we’re now sitting at 39-36-1 overall with our college picks (slightly better in the NFL).
This week, it’s all about the excitement of Conference Championship Week. While these matchups bring plenty of drama, they also present a tougher challenge for picking games, as we’re now looking at strong teams going head-to-head instead of finding value against weaker squads. As a result, fewer games really jumped off the page, but I’ve identified three that I feel confident about.
It’s hard to believe the season is winding down. But don’t worry, there’s still plenty of football ahead. Enjoy Championship Week, Sandman Nation, and let’s get ready for an incredible bowl season and the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. The best is yet to come!
Iowa State (+2.5) vs Arizona State *Big 12 Championship in Dallas
Iowa State was my preseason pick to win the Big 12, and I’m sticking with that prediction. Kenny Dillingham has done a phenomenal job leading Arizona State to a 10-2 record both overall and against the spread this season, but Matt Campbell has been building toward this moment for nine seasons with the Cyclones. This could be his first conference championship, and he has the team to make it happen.
Statistically, these teams are nearly identical—both average around 425 yards and 32 points per game, while giving up about 330 yards defensively. This matchup has all the makings of a nail-biter that could be decided in the final minutes. With Iowa State getting nearly a field goal, I’m backing the Cyclones. QB Rocco Becht has what it takes to lead them to the finish line. Take the points and Iowa State.
The Pick: Iowa State +2.5
Georgia vs Texas (-2.5) *SEC Championship in Atlanta
We’ve mentioned in this column before that when a line looks too good to be true, it often is, so I always make these picks carefully. That said, Georgia has looked shaky all season, barely escaping an 8-OT thriller against Georgia Tech last week. On the flip side, Texas was dominant in their statement win over Texas A&M and might be the team to beat heading into the CFP.
While Georgia beat Texas by 15 earlier this season, taking down the same team twice in one year is always a tall order. The Longhorns come into this game focused, fired up, and ready to take control. Statistically, they’re superior, with a top-10 offense and the #2 defense in the nation. I like Texas here giving less than a field goal. Hook ’em!
The Pick: Texas -2.5
Marshall at Louisiana (-4.5)
Louisiana has been a reliable pick for us this season, and we’re riding with the Ragin’ Cajuns once again in this week’s Sun Belt Championship. Not only is this a rare conference title game played at home, but Louisiana looks dominant in nearly every key statistical category. They boast a top 15 offense and a top 40 defense, compared to Marshall’s underwhelming performance on both sides of the ball.
Since QB Chandler Fields took over for the injured Ben Wooldridge, the Cajuns haven’t missed a beat. Add to that their incredible ball security with just six turnovers all season and this team is primed to roll. Playing in front of a home crowd, with the conference chmapionship on the line, we’re confidently backing Louisiana to cover. Lay the points and enjoy the show.
The Pick: Louisiana -4.5
