Bierman’s Best Bets – NFL Week 17
Sandman Nation, we’re keeping the momentum rolling! Another perfect 3-0 week brings us to a strong 29-18-1 record for the NFL season. We’ve got three more games we love this week, so let’s stay hot and keep the wins coming.
From all of us at Sandman Sports, we wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and a joyous holiday season! And may all your bets cash this weekend – let’s make it a festive one! ??
Broncos at Bengals (-3) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last week, we backed the Bengals against a dreadful Browns team, laying 7 points, and it cashed with ease. This week, we’re sticking with Cincinnati, this time giving just a field goal to the Broncos.
While I gave Denver plenty of credit on our recent podcast for their impressive turnaround under Sean Payton—positioning themselves for their first playoff appearance since 2015—the Bengals have other plans. Fighting for their postseason lives, Cincinnati has been red-hot, winning three straight games. Joe Burrow is having an incredible season, leading the league’s #1 passing offense with weapons like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown making plays all over the field.
The Broncos’ defense has been strong overall but ranks in the bottom half against the pass, making them vulnerable to Cincinnati’s aerial attack. With the Bengals in a must-win situation and playing at home, I expect them to handle business and cover the 3-point spread. Let’s roll with Cincinnati again this week.
The Pick: Bengals -3
Chargers (-5.5) at Patriots
The Chargers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and giving less than a touchdown—even with the cross-country travel—feels like a gift. I predicted the Patriots would finish under 4.5 wins this year, and they’re on track for that, though I’ll admit I’m impressed with Jerod Mayo, Drake Maye, and the flashes of potential they’ve shown. The future might be bright for New England, but for now, this is still a struggling team with nothing to play for.
Enter the Chargers, who are fighting for their playoff lives and finding their rhythm under Jim Harbaugh. This team looks dangerous as they hit their stride, featuring the #1 ranked scoring defense to complement their offensive firepower behind QB Justin Herbert. All of the Chargers’ losses this season have come against playoff-caliber teams, and they’ve easily taken care of struggling squads like the Patriots.
New England’s offense is among the league’s worst (and their defense isn’t much better), which makes this an easy call. I’ll happily take the Chargers giving the points—consider it a belated Christmas present!
The Pick: Chargers -5.5
Jets at Bills (-10)
I firmly believe the Bills are destined to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl. That said, they didn’t look the part last week, barely scraping by with an uninspiring win over a struggling Patriots team. To make matters worse, Josh Allen delivered one of his worst offensive performances of the season – breaking plenty of fantasy hearts across the nation, mine included. But don’t expect that to happen two weeks in a row.
The Jets, on the other hand, are completely lost. Aaron Rodgers needs to officially call it a career, and this offense looks like it’s just going through the motions. While New York’s defense is surprisingly solid, ranking in the top 10 for yards allowed, it’s not enough to stop the Bills’ firepower, especially in Buffalo.
The Bills will come out hungry, looking to fine-tune their game as they gear up for the playoffs, while the Jets are simply limping toward the finish line. I’m usually wary of double-digit spreads in the NFL, but in this case, the trend of big favorites covering this season looks set to continue. I’m rolling with Buffalo to win big on Sunday.
The Pick: Bills – 10
