Bierman’s Bowl Bets: Wave 3 (Dec 30 – Jan 4)
We’re nearing the home stretch of our bowl predictions, and so far, things have gone well with a solid 19-11 record in our first 30 games. This wave features nine more matchups, and I’ll be publishing my picks for the four CFP quarterfinal games in a separate column.
This wave has been one of the tougher ones to predict, with very few games standing out. The sheer number of opt-outs and questions surrounding team motivation make these matchups more unpredictable. That said, we’ve identified a few gems we feel good about.
As always, I’ve assigned confidence points to each pick. The fewer footballs you see, the less confident I am. Games with five footballs, on the other hand, are the ones we absolutely love.
Happy New Year, Sandman Nation! Enjoy the games as we wind down an exciting bowl season!
TransPerfect Music City Bowl Bowl
Monday, December 30th at 2:30 PM
Nashville, Tennessee
Iowa vs. Missouri (-2.5)
These teams have a combined 17 wins, but neither has a signature victory to boast about – arguably their best wins were against 7-6 Nebraska or 7-6 Arkansas. While neither squad stands out, Missouri does have the edge in terms of the quality of their losses, as all three came against strong competition: Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina.
Missouri QB Brady Cook is expected to play, but he’ll be without star WR Luther Burden, who’s opted out to prepare for the draft. On the Iowa side, starting QB Cade McNamara has entered the transfer portal, but backup Brendan Sullivan, who saw significant playing time this season, is back from injury and should be capable under center.
One interesting stat is that both offenses average 27 points per game. However, Missouri ranks 60th in the nation in total yards gained at 382 per game, while Iowa sits at 119th with just 317 yards per game. This disparity is largely due to Iowa’s heavy reliance on defense and special teams to create scoring opportunities.
While Iowa’s defense is solid, Missouri’s defense isn’t far behind, and their offense is clearly more productive. In what should be a low-scoring affair, I’ll lean toward the team with the better offensive unit. The Tigers should win by at least a field goal, so we’ll give the points – though it’s not a high-confidence pick.
The Pick: Missouri -2.5
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st at 12:00 PM
Tampa, Florida
Alabama (-13.5) vs. Michigan
This game is a rematch of last year’s thrilling CFP semifinal, but the rosters look drastically different this time around. Michigan has lost a significant amount of talent from last year, and even more key players are opting out ahead of this matchup. Among those sitting out are DT Mason Graham, DL Kenneth Grant, RBs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, and TE Colston Loveland – all critical contributors.
Alabama is also dealing with some opt-outs, but QB Jalen Milroe has confirmed he’ll play, which is a big boost for the Crimson Tide. If you’ve followed my columns or listened to the podcast, you know I’m a diehard Michigan fan. But objectively, I don’t see how the Wolverines can keep up in this game.
This isn’t one of the old Nick Saban glory years Alabama teams, but they still boast more talent than Michigan’s current roster. While the Wolverines looked incredible in their victory over Ohio State, many of the stars from that game will be absent here. Plus, Michigan’s offense, which ranked near the bottom of all D1 teams during the regular season, will struggle to keep pace against Alabama.
It pains me to say it, but the Crimson Tide have the edge. We’ll take Alabama and lay the points.
The Pick: Alabama (-13.5)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st at 2:00 PM
El Paso, Texas
Louisville vs. Washington (+2)
This is the third game in a row where I’m pivoting away from my original Legends pick. With the holiday rush, those selections were made quickly without the deep dive they deserved. Now that I’ve had time to dig into the details, I’m leaning toward the Huskies to cover the small spread.
Let’s start with the ACC’s abysmal bowl performance this season. They’re 1-9 so far, with their only win coming from Syracuse against a completely gutted Washington State roster. That’s not exactly a confidence booster for Louisville.
Washington head coach Jedd Fisch made waves by benching season-long starting QB Will Rogers in the finale, and he’s confirmed that freshman Demond Williams will start in the bowl game. Williams has the kind of electricity and upside that could produce some exciting moments here. Meanwhile, Louisville will be without starting QB Tyler Shough, who’s opted out. Backup Harrison Bailey, who has only played in four games since 2020, will get the nod. That lack of experience doesn’t instill much confidence, especially against a strong Washington defense.
This game is likely to be a tight one, and while I’m not overflowing with confidence, I like the Huskies with the points. With a solid Big Ten team and a dynamic new QB at the helm, Washington feels like the right side in this matchup.
The Pick: Washington +2
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st at 3:00 PM
Orlando, Florida
South Carolina vs. Illinois (+10)
Let’s start by giving credit where it’s due: Head Coach Shane Beemer and the South Carolina Gamecocks have had an impressive season. Finishing 9-3, their only losses came against top-tier teams LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss. Along the way, they secured quality wins over Texas A&M and Clemson. This is a well-rounded team, particularly on defense, where they rank 15th nationally in yards allowed per game.
Illinois, under Head Coach Bret Bielema, has also had a solid 9-3 season. While their offensive and defensive stats don’t jump off the page, they’re a gritty team that typically seems to hang around in games. Neither team is dealing with significant opt-outs, which makes this close to a full-strength battle. However, I do wonder about South Carolina’s motivation. After being mentioned as a potential CFP contender earlier in the season, this bowl might feel like a letdown for them.
As with many of the games on this slate, I don’t have a super strong read, but ten points is a big spread against a competent Big Ten team. We’ll take the Fighting Illini and the points in this one.
The Pick: Illinois +10
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st at 3:30 PM
Houston, Texas
Baylor vs. LSU (+3.5)
This is my favorite game in this wave of bowl matchups. While LSU is dealing with more significant opt-outs and has some concerns about offensive line depth, they still return starting QB Garrett Nussmeier, and this roster remains highly talented. Motivation is always a question in bowl games, and I do believe Baylor will come ready to play, but both teams feature top-20 offenses, so there’s no major edge there. The difference lies in the defenses, where LSU holds a clear advantage.
Baylor’s only win this season against a bowl-eligible team came in early November when they narrowly beat TCU 37-34. While the Bears have had a solid season, LSU is simply the better team overall. Getting the Tigers at more than a field goal feels like a late Christmas gift, and I’m happy to take it. Geaux Tigers
The Pick: LSU (+3.5)
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Thursday, January 2nd at 7:30 PM
Jacksonville, Florida
Duke vs. Mississippi (-17)
I’ve been picking against Duke all season, and I’m sticking with that trend here. Despite their 9-3 record, this team doesn’t stack up well, and now they’re without some key contributors for the bowl game, including starting QB Maalik Murphy, who’s transferring to Auburn. On the other hand, Ole Miss might be upset about missing the CFP, but I believe this will fuel them rather than deflate them.
Head coach Lane Kiffin has a point to prove, and I fully expect him to go all out in this matchup. Unlike some other teams in bowl season when the game is in hand, Ole Miss won’t take their foot off the gas, which bodes well for covering this hefty spread. The 17-point line is high – actually the largest of the bowl season – but it’s justified for a team boasting the #3 offense and a top-25 defense.
Duke is simply outmatched in every facet of this game. While they may keep it respectable in the first half, I see Ole Miss pulling away late and winning by a wide margin, potentially more than 30. We’re confidently rolling with the Rebels to cover.
The Pick: Mississippi (-17)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Friday, January 3rd at 4:00 PM
Dallas, Texas
North Texas vs. Texas State (-14)
In our Bowl Bold Predictions segment a couple of weeks ago, I predicted this game could break the 100-point mark. Both teams have top-tier offenses and shaky defenses, which seemed like a recipe for a shootout. However, significant opt-outs on both sides have shifted the dynamic, and the over-under has dropped from 68.5 to 60.5 as a result.
As for the spread, I’m always cautious when a team loses its starting QB, as is the case with North Texas. Chandler Morris has transferred to Virginia, leaving the Mean Green to start true freshman Drew Mestemaker. While North Texas should still be able to move the ball, their defense ranks among the bottom five in the country and is unlikely to hold up.
Texas State isn’t exactly a juggernaut, but they’ve retained more key players, providing offensive continuity that the Mean Green lacks. Additionally, North Texas struggles with ball security, and a couple of turnovers could make this game get out of hand quickly. We’ll give the points here, as the Bobcats should roll in this one.
The Pick: Texas State -14
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Friday, January 3rd at 7:30 PM
Charlotte, North Carolina
Minnesota (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech
This is yet another game that’s tough to gauge. Virginia Tech is a team in turmoil, dealing with a slew of opt-outs and injuries, including their top two quarterbacks from the regular season. That leaves third-stringer Pop Watson to face a Minnesota defense that finished the season ranked in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed. Moving the ball against this stout unit will be a major challenge for the Hokies.
On the flip side, Minnesota’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. They’ve struggled to generate consistent production all season but will face a relatively average Hokies defense in this matchup. However, the bigger factor here is the ACC’s woeful performance in bowl games this year, sitting at 1-9 so far. With that in mind, it’s hard to back Virginia Tech, even with the 7.5 points.
While I don’t feel overly confident about this one, I’ll side with Minnesota to cover. The Gophers’ defense should be enough to keep the Hokies in check, and we’ll lay the 7.5 points.
The Pick: Minnesota -7.5
Bahamas Bowl
Saturday, January 4th at 11:00 AM
Nassau, Bahamas
Buffalo vs. Liberty (+2.5)
This is yet another matchup where one team has been hit hard by the transfer portal while the other remains relatively intact. In this case, Liberty has been significantly affected, most notably losing QB Kaidon Salter, who transferred to Colorado to play under Deion Sanders. Buffalo, on the other hand, has experienced minimal roster disruptions.
Despite Liberty’s losses, I’m still backing the Flames in this game. This team averaged over 430 yards and 30 points per game with Salter, and I believe their backup QB, Ryan Burger, is talented enough to keep the offense moving effectively.
Buffalo, even with a full roster, struggles on both sides of the ball. Their deficiencies make it hard to envision them covering this spread. Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell has a solid track record of preparing his teams for bowl games, and I expect the Flames to be motivated and ready to prove themselves.
We’ll confidently take Liberty and give the points in this one.
The Pick: Liberty +2.5
