Bierman’s Bowl Bets: CFP Quarterfinals
We’ve got four highly enticing CFP quarterfinal matchups ahead, Sandman Nation, and I’m thrilled to dive into these games! Unlike the first four CFP games that went chalk and weren’t close, I’m banking on these matchups bringing the excitement. In fact, I’m rolling with all four underdogs to cover the spread.
As has been the case during bowl season, I’ve assigned confidence levels to each pick, represented by football icons. Fewer footballs indicate less confidence, while closer to five footballs means we really love the pick.
Enjoy the action as this promises to be an incredible couple of days of playoff football!
CFP Quarterfinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl
Tuesday, December 31st at 7:30 PM
Glendale, Arizona
Penn State vs. Boise State (+11.5)
I’ve predicted Penn State to win the national championship, so I’m confident they’ll take this game, but I like Boise State to cover the spread. This matchup should be fascinating, especially when the Broncos have the ball. RB Ashton Jeanty is on the brink of history—if he rushes for more than 123 yards, he’ll break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record. Boise State ranks sixth in the nation in rushing yards per game, but they’ll face a massive challenge against Penn State’s defense, which boasts the seventh-best rushing defense in the country.
While Boise will look to lean on their ground game, QB Maddux Madsen is capable in the passing game and won’t be intimidated by the Nittany Lions’ vaunted defense. The Broncos have been consistent all year, with their only loss coming in a narrow 37-34 game at Autzen Stadium against CFP top seed Oregon.
Penn State’s offense, led by Drew Allar, should move the ball effectively, but I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. Boise State is a strong team, and with their grit and ability to keep things close, I like them to cover the spread. Take the Broncos with the points in this one.
The Pick: Boise State +11.5
CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st at 1:00 PM
Atlanta, Georgia
Texas vs. Arizona State (+12.5)
Arizona State is being completely overlooked in this matchup, as reflected by the massive spread for a CFP quarterfinal game. But that’s exactly where head coach Kenny Dillingham thrives – he’ll use the underdog narrative to fire up his squad. In fact, I believe the Sun Devils have a legitimate chance to pull off the outright upset.
Arizona State’s offense is explosive, led by standout RB Cam Skattebo, who’s amassed 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. He’s the heartbeat of this team, but QB Sam Leavitt provides steady leadership under center and knows how to keep the offense balanced.
Texas boasts a stout defense, and it won’t be easy for the Sun Devils to move the ball consistently. However, Arizona State has the playmakers to mix things up, capitalize on big plays, and force key turnovers. On the other side of the ball, I continue to have concerns around Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers as he’s prone to costly mistakes, and I expect him to make a few in this game.
The Sun Devils will keep this one close and might even have a shot to win it late. With a line this big, I’m all in on Arizona State and the points.
The Pick: Arizona State +12.5
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st at 5:00 PM
Pasadena, California
Ohio State vs. Oregon (+2.5)
Ohio State rebounded impressively from their stumble against Michigan, delivering a dominant performance against Tennessee. QB Will Howard looked sharp, and LB Jack Sawyer continues to prove he’s one of the most fiery and impactful defenders in college football. With one of the most talented rosters in the nation, the Buckeyes are a formidable and dangerous team to face.
That said, Oregon stands as the only undefeated FBS team in the country and has already beaten Ohio State once this season, albeit in a nail-biter. Both teams boast elite offenses and defenses, and this rematch is shaping up to be another close battle that could genuinely go either way. While I believe Oregon will pull off the win, what I love about the Ducks here is twofold.
First, Dan Lanning is a significantly better coach than Ryan Day, and having that edge on the sideline in such a high-stakes game matters. Second, Oregon is getting points in this matchup, which is baffling to me and I think is due solely to recency bias. Even if the Ducks lose, it’s hard to imagine the margin being by a field goal or greater.
While I’m not as confident in this pick as some others, I’ll gladly take Oregon and the points. Quack quack!
The Pick: Oregon +2.5
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Wednesday, January 1st at 8:45 PM
New Orleans, Louisiana
Notre Dame (+1.5) vs. Georgia
This pick makes me uneasy, primarily due to the absence of Georgia’s starting QB, Carson Beck. I expected the line to shift more dramatically, potentially even favoring Notre Dame, but Georgia remains a slight favorite, which is a bit perplexing. Backup QB Gunnar Stockton deserves credit for managing the win against Texas, but facing a full game on a grand stage against a strong Irish defense will be a much bigger challenge.
Georgia’s running game, anchored by Trevor Etienne, will still be effective, but I’m leaning toward Notre Dame in this matchup. Despite my mixed feelings about the Irish throughout the season, QB Riley Leonard is a seasoned leader who won’t get rattled under pressure. Coach Marcus Freeman has done a commendable job steering the team back on track after their shocking loss to Northern Illinois early in the year. Their dominant win over Indiana showed how well-prepared and capable they are.
Adding to my concern for Georgia is the extended layoff since their last game on December 7th, which could result in a sluggish start. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has momentum and a small point spread in their favor. I’ll take the Irish in this spot.
The Pick: Notre Dame +1.5
