Bierman’s Bowl Bets: CFP Semi-Finals (Jan 9-10)
We’re keeping the momentum going this bowl season with an impressive 27-16 record so far. Only a handful of games remain, but they’re shaping up to be absolute thrillers! Say what you will about the first year of the expanded CFP playoffs – whether it’s the seeding, the selections, or the format – but the semifinals have delivered two incredibly enticing matchups that I can’t wait to watch.
For these games, we’re rolling with both underdogs. These are tight matchups, and I fully expect the outcomes to come down to the final minutes.
As I’ve done during bowl season, each pick is assigned confidence points with one football signifying low confidence and five for extreme confidence.
While it is bittersweet knowing the season is coming to a close, there’s still plenty of incredible football left. So settle in, Sandman Nation, and enjoy the action this weekend!
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Thursday, January 9th at 7:30 PM
Miami, Florida
Notre Dame vs. Penn State (+2)
In the first of two highly anticipated semifinal matchups, I’m sticking with my preseason pick to win it all: the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve looked dominant so far, cruising past SMU in the first round and dismantling Boise State in the quarterfinals with a convincing 31-14 win.
While QB Drew Allar was serviceable against Boise, he’ll need to step up with a few big plays for Penn State to advance. However, the Nittany Lions’ real strength lies on the ground. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combined for over 220 yards against Boise State, and I expect them to lean heavily on their ground game against Notre Dame’s solid, but not spectacular, rush defense.
Both defenses in this matchup are exceptional. Penn State’s unit was suffocating against Boise State, limiting star RB Ashton Jeanty to a season-low 104 rushing yards. Notre Dame’s defense is also top-five caliber and will likely give Drew Allar and company plenty of headaches, making the running game even more critical for Penn State.
On the other side, Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has been impressive, and coach Marcus Freeman has shown his ability for great game preparation and in-game adjustments. The Irish handled Indiana easily in the first round and then knocked off Georgia 23-10 in the quarterfinals. While their defensive performance against Georgia was strong, it’s worth noting that the Bulldogs were without their starting QB and have been inconsistent all year.
At this stage of the playoffs, every team is elite, and there are no glaring weaknesses to exploit. While Notre Dame is a fantastic team, there’s something about this Penn State squad that feels destined for a title run. In what should be a tight and evenly matched game, I’m sticking with the Nittany Lions and taking the 2 points.
The Pick: Penn State +2
CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Friday, January 10th at 7:30 PM
Dallas, Texas
Ohio State vs. Texas (+6)
What a game this is shaping up to be. These two teams, both ranked in the AP preseason top 4, have overcome significant challenges to earn their spots in this semifinal matchup.
A few weeks ago, the mood in Columbus was bleak, with fans calling for Ryan Day’s firing. But the Buckeyes have since transformed into arguably the best team in the nation. They dominated Tennessee at the Shoe, 42-17, and followed it up with one of the season’s most impressive performances, dismantling the #1 seed Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl, 41-21 – a game that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests.
Ohio State’s defense, ranked #1 in the nation, has been relentless, playing with an intensity that’s only grown stronger in recent weeks. Defensive End Jack Sawyer looks like he is on a mission, leading a unit that appears determined to deliver a championship. On offense, QB Will Howard has rebounded from a rough outing against Michigan and is now playing with confidence and precision. His 319-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Oregon was masterful, and with stud WR Jeremiah Smith (187 yards and 2 tds last week) and a backfield featuring TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (180 rushing yards combined last week), this offense looks nearly impossible to stop.
Texas, on the other hand, enters this game with a different narrative. After a deflating loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Longhorns handled Clemson, 38-24, but didn’t look dominant. Their next game, however, was an instant classic – a double-overtime thriller against Arizona State. While Longhorn QB Quinn Ewers has faced criticism and there continues to increasing calls for Arch Manning, his late-game heroics against Arizona State, including a game-saving 4th-and-long touchdown pass, showed he’s capable of rising to the moment. Facing his former team in Ohio State adds an intriguing wrinkle to this matchup, and I believe Ewers will be ready to deliver.
Texas’ defense, despite giving up 31 points to Arizona State, remains the team’s strength. They’ll look to disrupt Will Howard, neutralize star WR Smith and contain the Buckeyes’ rushing attack. While Ohio State is favored by nearly a touchdown and has looked nearly unstoppable in recent weeks, I still have questions about Ryan Day in high-pressure games.
The Buckeyes might ultimately prevail, but this is a lot of points to lay against a super talented Texas team. I’ll take the Longhorns to cover in what should be an epic battle.
The Pick: Texas +6
