Alright, Sandman Nation, last week we had a big slate of 10 games, and while we started strong at 4-3, we stumbled in the night games and finished 4-6. That puts us at 12-11 for the season. This week, we’ve got six more games on tap, and we’re ready to bounce back.
Before we dive into this week’s picks, let’s take a look at the ATS (against the spread) season alerts. There are 7 teams currently sitting at 4-0 ATS: BYU, Eastern Michigan, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, San Jose State, Tennessee, and Texas. On the flip side,7 teams are 0-4 ATS: Kansas, Kent State, LSU, Middle Tennessee State, North Carolina State, TCU, and Wyoming.
We are betting that LSU stops the bleeding and finally wins one ATS. Read below to see the rest of our picks.
Virginia Tech (+19.5) at Miami (FL) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Hokies put up a strong fight, rallying back against a very good Rutgers team on Saturday but ultimately came up just short. On the flip side, Miami is looking like a true National Title contender, dominating South Florida with a 35-point victory. The Hurricanes are currently ranked second in both points and yards per game, showcasing their offensive firepower. That said, Virginia Tech has been making steady progress, and I think they can get their running game going enough to slow the pace and limit Miami’s explosiveness. While Miami is the clear favorite to win, a 19.5 point spread feels steep for this conference matchup. Virginia Tech, despite a 2-2 record, is a solid team, and I like the Hokies to cover the spread.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +19.5
Maryland (+7) at Indiana
I’m really excited about the Hoosiers this year and what Coach Curt Cignetti is building in Bloomington. This isn’t the same Indiana football team of the past—I see hints of what Wisconsin was developing in the early 2000s. They’re disciplined, well-prepared, and boast a top-12 offense in points scored along with a top-5 defense in yards allowed. That said, don’t overlook the Terrapins. Despite a tough home loss to Michigan State in Week 2, QB Billy Edwards has been impressive, completing 28 of 32 passes for 328 yards last week. Maryland leads the nation in turnover margin per game, and if they can maintain that advantage, they’ll keep things close. While I expect Indiana to win, I like the Terrapins to cover the spread in this matchup.
The Pick: Maryland +7
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-5)
Is there a more frustratingly inconsistent team than the Wildcats? One week they look great, handling a solid Arizona team, and then they get completely dominated in Provo. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State put up a fight against Utah but ultimately fell short. The Cowboys may be 3-1, but I’m not impressed by what I’ve seen. Pre-season Heisman hopeful RB Ollie Gordon has struggled to find his rhythm, with only 42 rushing yards last week. Their defense is even worse, ranked 119th in the nation, giving up an average of 485.3 yards per game. After the embarrassing loss to BYU, I expect Kansas State to come out angry, and with the support of their home crowd in Manhattan, I see the Wildcats winning this one fairly easily.
The Pick: Kansas State -5
Ohio State (-25) at Michigan State
Aside from Miami, Texas, and Tennessee, few teams have been as impressive this year as the Buckeyes. While the competition hasn’t been top-tier and they’ve had some slow starts, Ohio State’s sheer athletic talent allows them to dominate as games wear on. Now heading into Big Ten play with a trip to East Lansing, I see no signs that Michigan State can keep up. While Aidan Chiles is improving, the Spartans’ offense still ranks 90th nationally, which won’t cut it against a vastly improved Ohio State defense that ranks 3rd overall. Additionally, the Spartans have averaged more than 3 lost turnovers per game. Combine all that with the Buckeyes’ top-ranked offense, and this game is set up to be a complete blowout.
The Pick: Ohio State -25
South Alabama at LSU (-20.5)
I’m hoping for LSU to break a trend here, as the Bayou Bengals are one of seven teams that are 0-4 against the spread this season. They’ve struggled to put together a full, consistent game. Enter a confident South Alabama team that just obliterated Appalachian State as 8.5-point underdogs. However, I believe this is the game where LSU finally breaks out. QB Garrett Nussmeier looked sharp last Saturday, going 32-44 for 352 yards, and South Alabama’s defense, allowing over 450 yards per game, won’t be able to handle LSU’s firepower. While LSU’s defense isn’t elite, it has shown improvement and should keep the Jaguars off balance. With a Saturday night home game in Death Valley, I expect LSU to win comfortably, so I’m giving the points in this one.
The Pick: LSU -20.5
Oregon (-26) at UCLA
The Ducks finally looked like the Big Ten contender everyone expected as they dominated in-state rival Oregon State on Saturday. QB Dillon Gabriel was in full control, going 20-24 for 291 yards, and their running game shined with RB Jordan James leading the charge. Meanwhile, the Bruins kept it close in Baton Rouge, but I still believe they’re one of the weakest teams in the Power 4. They rank 111th in the nation in total yards per game, struggling to move the ball, and their defense hasn’t been much better. The Ducks’ explosive offense should take over at the Rose Bowl, running away with this early-season Big Ten matchup.
The Pick: Oregon -26
