NFL Divisional Round Breakdown & Predictions
-by Tyler Hedmann, January 16th, 2025
The NFL’s wildcard weekend proved to be a surprising one, with multiple underdog victories balanced on the backs of overperforming defenses. The Rams were the biggest surprise, with a stonewalling of the Vikings that played way above their season’s defensive statistics. Meanwhile, Houston’s beatdown of the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers and Washington’s narrow defeat of Tampa Bay were both reminders of the old-and-proven adage: defense wins championships.
It looks to be the theme of the 2024 playoffs, and we’ll see if it continues in the Divisional Round.
With that in mind, looking ahead to this weekend’s matchups, we have a slate of games that range from likely-one-sided affairs to all-out brawls. Let’s take a look at the schedule and see what’s in store:
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Sat. Jan 18th, 4:30pm EST)
The Houston Texans, fresh off a big win over the AFC West Los Angeles Chargers, now square up against LA’s bigger, scarier divisional counterpart in the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have had what many would call a successful but uninspiring season, winning games in less impressive and even flat-out lucky ways, a far cry from the dominant seasons that have built the dynasty reputation of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s tenures in Missouri. The question is, does that translate to a potential early round exit for the Super Bowl regulars?
The answer is likely no. CJ Stroud has had to deal with significant issues around the offensive line all year, with the third highest rate of dropback pressure (38.9%) and allowing 52 sacks in the regular season. Now, Kansas City doesn’t have an incredibly strong team-wide pass rush, with a pass rush win rate of only 37%, good for 19th in the league. But with Chris Jones, the top pass rush win rate DT in the NFL this year, there’s a strong chance CJ Stroud will find himself pressured straight up the middle throughout the game, and that down-the-middle pressure will undoubtedly create broken pockets, timing issues, and ultimately, drive killing sacks.
Houston’s best chance to combat the issue is to continue to utilize their own pass rush, which ranks number one in the league, led by Danielle Hunter. Unfortunately, Kansas City’s O-line has held strong throughout the year, and Patrick Mahomes is among the best in pocket manipulation, pocket escape, and throwing on the run.
In the end, Houston’s defense will fight to keep the game in range, but CJ Stroud and the Houston offense will fail to keep things competitive.
PREDICTION: Houston 10 – Kansas City 24
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Sat. Jan 18th, 8pm EST)
This game projects as the biggest blowout of the weekend, and it’s tough to see how it will play out any way other than a Detroit win.
The Detroit Lions, the top team in the NFL’s undisputed top division, have been on an absolute tear all year, rolling out an insanely effective and entertaining offense led by Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson and QB Jared Goff while surviving countless injuries on the defensive side of the ball through the strong scheming of league-wide head coach target Aaron Glenn. With a week of rest and players like linebacker Alex Anzalone and David Montgomery back in the mix, the Lions project to be a favorite in every matchup.
And the Commanders, while exceeding expectations by a mile this year, are a flawed team with a greater-than-likely chance of being exposed by a team that is 3 or 4 years further along in the rebuild and development process. Starting a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels, the Commanders can’t afford to fall behind much at any point if they hope to achieve another upset, but there are multiple factors working against them.
Detroit’s tag team rushing duo of Gibbs and Montgomery will be heavily used against a below-average Washington rushing defense, and if Detroit can control the clock and methodically drive down the field, it will create two issues. One, Washington will struggle to get into a groove on offense, and with a young quarterback and inconsistent offensive output, Washington can’t afford to have their rhythm stunted. Two, if Detroit is able to wear down Washington’s defense, it will begin to open up considerable passing opportunities, which will be tough enough to contain with the Lions’ numerous talent pass catchers (St. Brown, LaPorta, and Wiliams) and criminally-underrated quarterback in Goff.
There’s no doubt that Washington will come out fighting hard at the start, but this game will likely be decided before the end of the 3rd.
PREDICTION: Washington 14, Detroit 38
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sun. Jan 19th, 3pm EST)
This is likely to be the toughest game to predict this weekend, and it’s all tied directly to the LA Rams complete domination of the Minnesota Vikings last weekend. Are the Rams better than everyone thought? Is Sean McVay the type of head coach that can scheme his team to big wins over more talented teams? Or were the Vikings frauds all along? A team led by a quarterback in Sam Darnold who played well until the lights got too bright?
The reality is it’ll be hard to tell until we see how the Rams match up against the Eagles. The Vikings being a fluke is entirely possible, but the Eagles have had a strong year, beating out the Ravens and potential-MVP Lamar Jackson, and holding the Cincinnati Bengals, one of the NFLs most prolific offenses, to a mere 17 points.
So what is the best indicator of who will take this game? Well, the best bet is that this game comes down to the rushing attack of the Eagles vs. the passing attack of the Rams.
The Eagles boast the (arguably) best running back in the NFL in Saquon Barkley, who runs behind a large, nasty offensive line led by Lane Johnson. Averaging 4.9 yards per rush in the regular season, the Eagles pose a massive threat to a Rams defense that has struggled to contain the run throughout the season.
And if the Eagles are able to establish the run, the Rams will likely need to lean on veteran QB Matthew Stafford to keep them in step with Philly. Unfortunately, the Eagles passing defense has been incredibly strong this year, largely on the back of two high-achieving rookies in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, along with veteran stalwarts Darius Slay, CJ Gardner-Johnson, and Reed Blankenship.
Ultimately, this is likely to be an ugly game. The Eagles will pound the rock, the Rams will desperately fight to stay competitive, and things will end with a well-earned Eagles win.
PREDICTION: Rams 10 – Eagles 21
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Sun. Jan 19th, 6:30pm EST
The game that everyone is excited for, and the one that many feel is the actual AFC Championship game, is our final of the weekend, and it is packed full of narratives. Which MVP-hopeful QB will seize the moment? Can the Bills contain Derrick Henry? Can the Ravens push past their inconsistent play? Is this the year the Bills finally push through to the Super Bowl?
All good questions, some of which will be answered Sunday, some of which may take longer. However, what is almost guaranteed is a fireworks display of passing, with two quarterbacks known for running and slinging who have become true, complete players this year.
But who wins? That’s the million dollar question. The Ravens have the perceived advantage of having won their last encounter this year, and in convincing 35-10 fashion. However, Buffalo has been the stronger team down the stretch, with huge wins over the Chiefs and the Lions.
The stats between the two teams are strikingly similar in many regards, and make it difficult to ascertain who will ultimately be victorious. But there is one X-factor that is likely to decide the game: Derrick Henry.
Baltimore and Buffalo sport incredibly similar passing attacks and defenses from a statistical standpoint, but Baltimore’s rushing attack and defense are both stronger, with Derrick Henry having an incredible season in his first year next to Jackson. Buffalo’s rushing offense, while strong, will be going up against a very strong Baltimore defense, one allowing only 3.6 yards per attempt on average. Now, Josh Allen and James Cook are not your average rushing attack, and that needs to be taken into account, but Buffalo’s middle-of-the-pack defense projects to be much less of an issue for Jackson and Henry than Baltimore’s solid rush defense and high sack rate will be for Allen and Cook. So who wins? It should be a close one, but my money’s on the Ravens.
PREDICTION: Baltimore 34 – Buffalo 31
