Bierman’s Best Bets: NFL Championship Weekend
What a weekend of football! The divisional round games delivered nonstop excitement, with every matchup decided by single digits and the outcomes hanging in the balance until the final moments. Now, it’s time to shift focus to the Conference Championship games, where each team will fight to secure their spot in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. With both lines sitting under a touchdown, Sunday promises to be another thrilling day of football.
We kept the winning streak alive last weekend, going 2-1-1 and improving our season record to an impressive 38-21-2. There’s no slowing down now – let’s keep the momentum rolling and make these last few weeks count. Enjoy the action, Sandman Nation, and let’s keep cashing in!
Commanders at Eagles (-5.5) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Was there a more shocking win this season than the Commanders dismantling the Lions on Saturday? A #5 seed with a rookie quarterback went into Detroit against the NFC’s top seed, a team widely favored to win the Super Bowl, and walked out with a dominant 45-31 victory. Jayden Daniels, proving yet again he’s no ordinary rookie, threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns while adding another 51 yards on the ground. The Commanders’ defense stepped up in a big way as well, forcing five turnovers and keeping the Lions’ #2-ranked offense off balance all night.
Now, the Commanders aim to keep their Cinderella season alive as they travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. The Eagles secured their spot with a gritty 28-22 win over the Rams in snowy conditions. Saquon Barkley was unstoppable, putting up a monster performance with 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts’ stat line was modest – he threw for 157 yards and no touchdowns – but he avoided mistakes and managed the game effectively despite being sacked seven times.
This sets up a classic NFC East battle with plenty of intrigue. Jayden Daniels has been sensational, and the Commanders feel like a team destined for greatness. However, there are concerns about their defense, which, despite forcing turnovers against Detroit, still allowed 31 points and ranks just 18th in points allowed per game. The Eagles, on the other hand, boast the NFL’s #1 defense in both yards and points allowed, and that could prove to be the difference.
Look for Hurts to take over on the ground against a Commanders run defense ranked 30th in the league. Barkley and Hurts together could exploit this weakness and control the tempo. While Daniels and the Commanders won’t go down without a fight, the Eagles have the edge in talent and experience. With the spread at a manageable 5.5 points, we’re confidently backing Philadelphia to cover and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
The Pick: Eagles -5.5
Bills (+1.5) at Chiefs
Before the line was released, I told a friend that if the Bills were underdogs in this game, I’d bet the house. Well, here we are: Buffalo heads to Arrowhead as slight underdogs against the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. If you’ve followed my columns this season, you know my skepticism about the Chiefs. Somehow, they’ve managed to win 15 games with a roster that doesn’t scream dominance, but credit to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as they’re two of the best to ever do it.
That said, this Chiefs offense is far from its usual juggernaut status. Rookie WR Xavier Worthy is their top receiving option, and against Houston last week, he was the only wide receiver to record a catch, finishing with just five receptions for 45 yards. TE Travis Kelce remains a game-changer, and Buffalo’s defense will need to contain him. However, the Chiefs’ run game, led by Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, doesn’t pose much of a threat to the Bills’ solid run defense.
On the flip side, Josh Allen continues to make his case for league MVP. While he likely won’t win it, every dropback feels like a moment of magic. Whether it’s a pinpoint throw to WR Khalil Shakir or a determined scramble for extra yards, Allen commands the field with confidence. RB James Cook adds another layer to this offense, which should find ways to score even against a respectable Chiefs defense.
The Bills’ biggest challenge is playing on the road. All four of their losses this season came away from home, and outside of their thrilling 48-42 win against the Lions in December, they’ve struggled to deliver marquee road victories. However, Buffalo handed Kansas City their only meaningful loss this season (Week 18’s defeat to the Broncos doesn’t really count) and I believe they’re poised to do it again.
The Bills have the tools, the confidence, and the momentum to handle business, even in the electric atmosphere of Arrowhead Stadium. Take Buffalo and the points with confidence.
The Pick: Bills +1.5
