Why Alex Bregman Could Be the Tigers’ Game-Changer – and a Futures Bet Worth Watching
The Detroit Tigers are currently +3000 to win the 2025 World Series with FanDuel. Signing Alex Bregman won’t see them join the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles as the American League favorites, but it will markedly improve their projections.
Bregman reportedly turned down a six-year, $156 million deal from the Houston Astros, which would have kept him in Space City through his age-36 campaign. Scott Boras has been looking for a deal in the region of $200 million for the two-time All-Star. As the start of spring training nears, Bregman is one of the top remaining free agents.
It’s been a slow-moving market for Bregman. He turns 31 on March 30. The Tigers’ negotiations are ‘at a standstill’, according to the Detroit Free Press. Houston is out of the running. The Chicago Cubs are looking in-house for their third base solution. The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox are the Tigers’ only reported rivals for Bregman’s signature.
Has Boras misjudged the market again? This time last year, the most powerful agent in baseball shifted to shorter deals for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman.
Detroit is right to be wary of a six- or seven-year deal for Bregman. The organization is still burdened by their last free agent overpay — Javier Báez is owed $73 million over the next three seasons.
Solid Foundation in Detroit
The Baez error shouldn’t deter the Tigers from committing to a high-AAV, two- or three-year deal for Bregman. He’s a much better all-around player with a skillset that should age better. If Boras blinks in his staring contest with front offices, it’s a perfect opportunity to add another proven veteran to their solid young core.
Detroit was third in xwOBA (expected weight on-base average) allowed last season, led by AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Reese Olson also performed to a high level, and a deep bullpen produced the fifth-best ERA in the majors.
Top prospect Jackson Jobe has a big role to play in 2025 after pitching four regular-season innings last season. Casey Mize and Alex Cobb slot in as solid third and fourth starters.
Despite some promising position players, the offense was the weakness, with a 95 wRC+ and the 23rd-ranked xwOBA.
Only six Tigers, per OOPSY, are projected for a league-average or better wRC+. That includes underachieving former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who is projected for 217 plate appearances. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres are the only players projected to be more than 7% above league average at the plate.
Carpenter is a platoon bat — .588 career OPS against lefties – and subpar defender. Torres is coming off the second-worst offensive season of his career and posted -4 outs above average.
Greene and Torres are the only guaranteed everyday players. Jace Jung struggled in his first 34 games as a big leaguer after an .831 OPS in AAA. Colt Keith is a platoon candidate with a 22nd percentile hard-hit rate and a 26th percentile walk rate.
Top position player prospects Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, and Bryce Rainer aren’t expected to reach the big leagues until 2026 at the earliest.
Bregman’s High Floor
Detroit has a clear need for Bregman. Per Fangraphs’ Depth Charts, the Tigers are going to split third base between Jung, Matt Vierling, and Zack McKinstry for all but 91 plate appearances.
Current projections have the Tigers generating 2.5 fWAR from third base. When Bregman has played more than 91 games, he averages 5.8 fWAR per season. He produced 2.1 fWAR in 91 games in 2021, which is the only season (other than the pandemic-shortened 2020) when he has played fewer than 145 games.
This can be seen as durability or a lot of wear and tear. Bregman’s glacial-paced free agency has also been impacted by decreasing production, with his fWAR returns dropping from 5.4 to 4.5 and to 4.1 over the last three years.
A career-worst 6.9% walk rate in 2024 is a concern. He had the best hard-hit rate of his career, however, and his maximum exit velocity has stayed in the same range. Notably, the 2024 campaign was his best defensively according to outs above average, and his speed has held at a similar level.
There aren’t any major warning signs among the early indicators of decline.
A deal running into the second half of Bregman’s thirties would be a mistake for a team like the Tigers. His value will plummet when his glove inevitably declines. He’s been a very good offensive player (122 wRC+) over the last two seasons rather than an MVP contender like we saw in 2018 and 2019.
Signing a contract for two, three, or even four years at between $25 million and $30 million AAV would be a great outcome for Detroit. The money would come off the books when their young core are getting towards free agency, and they would secure one of the sport’s best third basemen.
Tigers Become Intriguing Futures Option
Bregman is 34th in projected fWAR for the 2025 season, tied with Greene. Only four third basemen have a better projection.
Barring a breakout season from Jung, third base looks set to be a weakness for the Tigers. They were 24th in wins above average at the position last season, and risk ranking in the bottom seven against this year.
Durable with a high floor, and above average on both sides of the ball, Bregman is an ideal fit.
FanDuel has the Tigers as second favorites in the American League Central at +250. Their 83.5 win total is reasonable following an offseason with Cobb and Torres as the only two additions.
Bregman would take Detroit’s third base production from a projection of 18th into the top 10. His arrival alone wouldn’t make the Tigers favorites for the Central ahead of the Minnesota Twins, but they become a much more interesting option in the division. With another guaranteed everyday position player, it becomes easier to take the over on 83.5 wins, too.
