Jaw-Dropping Dončić and Davis Trade Completely Transforms NBA Futures Picture
Yes, that trade really happened. Anthony Davis is a Dallas Maverick. Luka Dončić is a Los Angeles Laker.
Neither Davis nor Dončić had any pre-warning about the trade, according to reports. Neither did LeBron James.
Players around the league were caught reacting to the news on benches and in locker rooms. Their astonishment was matched on X. NBA fans around the world were left checking if Shams Charania had been hacked when notifications popped up.
Trade Details
The full, three-team trade was:
Los Angeles Lakers get
Luka Dončić
Maxi Kleber
Markieff Morris
Dallas Mavericks get
Anthony Davis
Max Christie
2029 first-round pick
Utah Jazz get
Jalen Hood-Schifino
2025 second-round pick (via LA Clippers)
2025 second-round pick (via Dallas)
Immediate Odds Movement
Dallas has moved from +2000 to +3000 to win the NBA title at BetMGM. Los Angeles is +1700 at the same sportsbook, having been +4000 a matter of days ago. The tandem of James and Dončić is tantalizing.
These changes are reflected in the widespread response. The Lakers have been on a good run but did not have a Finals-winning ceiling. Their roster needs work – especially in the frontcourt – yet the tandem of James and Dončić is terrifying for the rest of the Western Conference.
Dallas has shed some salary. Davis is an elite defender. This team construction is not going to win the title, though, with spacing issues in the frontcourt and a massive offensive dependence on the shot creation of Kyrie Irving.
Irving’s response to this trade will be fascinating, too. He signed with the Mavs to play with Dončić. So did Klay Thompson. Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford have made a living off Dončić’s lobs.
The Mavericks’ fanbase will not be the only ones in shock as they hear about this trade, which is certainly the most shocking of the 21st century, and perhaps the most surprising in the NBA’s history.
What Happens in LA?
In the aftermath of this deal, there were murmurs the Lakers could look to move LeBron. His no-trade clause makes that difficult, and it seems unlikely given the respect he has for Dončić.
Instead of being a playoff team without a shot at going all the way, the Lakers have flexibility and a top-three player. Dončić is going to be the face of the Lakers for the next five years at the very least. He’s had the best start to an NBA career since LeBron, with five First Team All-NBA selections and three top-three MVP finishes. He’s led the Mavericks to the Conference Finals and NBA Finals with some trademark moments along the way.
With none of the players involved even mentioned among our top trade candidates, this completely reshapes the market.
The Lakers’ need for a big man is huge — Jaxson Hayes the nominal starting center at the time of writing. The perimeter defense is a major weakness, too, with Dončić, Austin Reaves, and LeBron all players teams will target.
This was a no-brainer for the Lakers, though. This was a trade you don’t think twice about. In fact, you probably check the Mavs were serious before accepting.
Suggestions Dallas was concerned about Dončić’s conditioning are nothing new. It’s not enough to trade a player of his talent for this return, unless there’s a major long-term injury worry they wanted to get out in front of. There has been no reporting that has even suggested such an issue.
Nic Claxton, Robert Williams III, and Walker Kessler are names to keep an eye on for the Lakers. Don’t be surprised if they make a big swing for a 3-and-D player, too.
Their odds shortening to +1700 at BetMGM – still +2100 at FanDuel – seems like a bit of an overreaction given their flaws. This team as constructed still isn’t beating the Oklahoma City Thunder. Bettors could benefit from waiting for the market to readjust and see if their price drifts towards +2500.
What are Dallas’ Titles Chances?
The Mavs trading Dončić is like the Buffalo Bills dealing Josh Allen or the Kansas City Royals trading Bobby Witt Jr.. It’s an unfathomable move. It’s harder to fathom when only one other team was supposedly contacted about Dončić’s availability.
How did they only get one first-round pick and an injury-prone center little over a month away from his 32nd birthday?
Dallas, given their offensive firepower and impressive defense at the end of last season, was an interesting title bet at +2000 before this trade. Their odds to make the playoffs have lengthened to -176 despite a 26-23 record.
Such optimism for this season has vanished. The offense will be clunky when Davis is at the four. On defense, the perimeter remains a problem, even with Davis on the backline.
Irving has played well this year. He’s also 32 years old and has been dealing with back and shoulder issues. A 34-year-old Thompson is scoring under 14 points per game.
The only upside in this trade is in this year or next, which should set off alarm bells when they’re eighth in the west. Their chances of winning the title in 2025 or 2026 have not improved.
This deal is only going to age poorly, too. Dallas is not in control of its 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030 first-round picks. Even if the Davis, Irving, and Thompson post-peak Big Three is a ‘success’, all three will either be at the end of their careers or have retired by the time those picks are conveying. The downside is enormous.
The teams with potential access to those picks – Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets/Brooklyn Nets, and San Antonio Spurs – banked on Dončić’s future belonging outside of Dallas. This trade is a huge win for them.
To say this was a lose-lose for the Mavs is an understatement. They have not helped their chances now or in the future. To trade a player like Dončić without getting a haul of picks and several high-upside young players in return is a franchise-ruining mistake.
February Duel
The teams meet on Feb. 25. It was already an interesting matchup between two good teams. Now it is the most extraordinary of grudge matches as Davis and Dončić face their former teammates having been traded out of the blue.
FanDuel has released early markets, including player specials, for the game, with the Lakers a 4.5-point favorite. Dončić to score 50+ points is a tempting bet at +1500.
Dončić returns to Dallas on April 9. These two teams could be fighting for playoff position with less than a week of the regular season to go – will the Mavericks already be regretting the trade by then?
