Bierman’s SUPER BOWL best bets

Super Bowl LIX is almost here and so are our Super Bowl Best Bets! If the line of this game is any indication, we’re in for a tight one. As I mentioned in my latest Six Pack article, Super Bowls have become far more competitive in recent years – 15 of the last 25 have been decided by one score, and each of the last three finished with exactly a three-point margin. It is time to preview some of our best Super Bowl Bets!

I expect another close one this year. While betting on the game itself is always fun, one of the best parts of the Super Bowl is the sheer volume of prop bets available. I always enjoy mixing in a few of those, but before diving in, it’s crucial to start with a strong read on how you think the game will unfold.

For me, I see this one playing out as a lower-scoring, grind-it-out battle, and I like the Eagles to win a close one with a heavy dose of the run game. That said, I also expect a few big plays and some surprises along the way.

Game Pick: Eagles +1.5 vs. Chiefs AND Under 48.5

If you’ve followed me all season, you know I’ve been anti-Chiefs (no shame there) and have picked against them several times in the playoffs. But don’t get it twisted – I care about winning bets more than I care about any team’s downfall.

And after plenty of thought and research, I’m rolling with the Eagles.

Yes, the Chiefs are insanely talented and deserve credit for their current dynasty, but this Eagles team has impressed me all season, particularly the way they demolished Washington two weeks ago with more than 220 rushing yards and SEVEN rushing touchdowns.

Now, let’s be real—the Chiefs’ run defense is much stronger than Washington’s, so I don’t expect another ground-game massacre. Jalen Hurts will need to be more involved, both with his legs and his arm, and I think he’ll do just that against a Kansas City pass defense that is vulnerable.

Statistically, these teams are similar in key areas:

• Both rank high in sacks, takeaways, and penalties—no shocker, they’re in the Super Bowl.
• Both have solid defenses, with Philly ranked #1 overall and KC still inside the top 10.
• But here’s where they differ: Philly has the #2 rushing attack in the NFL, while the Chiefs rank just 23rd.

That’s the separator for me. The Eagles will run the ball, control the clock, and dictate the tempo. Saquon Barkley might not go off like he did against Washington, but he will grind out tough yards, extend drives, and wear down the defense.

I also love Philly’s defense to disrupt Patrick Mahomes all night. Consider this:

In five games this season against top-10 pass defenses, Mahomes:
▪ Was sacked 12 times
▪ Threw only 4 total touchdowns (never more than 1 in any of those games)
▪ Tossed 3 interceptions

Those numbers tell me Mahomes won’t light up the scoreboard, and if the Eagles can generate pressure, they can contain him just enough to pull off the win.

Final Prediction: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21

The Picks: Eagles +1.5 and Under 48.5

Let’s now get into more of our Super Bowl Best Bets, including some of our favorite props!

Jalen Hurts to win MVP (+360)

Given my projected game script, I expect the Eagles to rely heavily on the run game. However, with the Chiefs boasting a strong run defense, Hurts will still need to make plays both with his arm and his legs.

History tells us that Super Bowl MVP usually goes to the winning team’s quarterback, and while Saquon Barkley could certainly make a case if the Eagles win, Hurts at +360 offers great value. If Philly comes out on top – and I believe they will – Hurts will likely have a few signature moments that seal the deal. At these odds, it’s a smart risk-reward play.

AJ Brown to Score a Receiving TD AND Jalen Hurts longest pass over 39.5 yards (+800)

While I expect the Eagles to lean on the run game, the Chiefs’ rush defense is no pushover. Their biggest vulnerability is through the air, where they rank in the bottom half of the league, allowing over 220 passing yards per game.

Enter A.J. Brown. He averages 86 yards per game and has seven touchdowns this season – and I’ve got a gut feeling he’s about to put on a show. I fully expect him to find the end zone, and with Jalen Hurts’ deep-ball ability, I see at least one long touchdown strike happening, whether to Brown or another Eagles weapon.

At +800 odds, this feels like a great value bet.

1^st Eagles Drive – Yes to successful 4^th down conversion +900

The Eagles have a well-earned reputation for going for it on fourth down, though it’s a bit overstated—they actually rank 10th in total attempts this past year with 27 (about 1.5 per game). However, when they do go for it, they deliver, ranking third in the league in conversion percentage, thanks in large part to the unstoppable Tush Push.

I can easily see them rolling the dice early, especially if they’re deep in Chiefs territory and want to keep a drive alive. At +900 odds, this is a high-upside bet worth taking a shot on.

Harrison Butker over 7.5 points (-110)

Butker has a big leg and a proven track record of delivering in big games. Hitting this bet only requires two field goals and two extra points or three field goals, both of which feel very doable. With the Eagles’ defense likely to slow down the Chiefs’ offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas City has to settle for points a few times. This one feels like a strong play to me.

Nolan Smith O .5 Sacks (+125)

As I mentioned earlier, Mahomes struggles against top-tier pass defenses, and the numbers back it up – he was sacked three times against the 49ers’ fourth-ranked defense. Now, he faces Philly’s top-ranked unit, which thrives on getting after the quarterback. Nolan Smith is one of the Eagles’ best pass rushers, and needing just one full sack to cash this bet feels very doable – especially at plus odds.

We hope you enjoy the Super Bowl Sandman Nation! ANd just as importantly, we hope you cash on all of these Super Bowl Best Bets!