Sandman Golf Crush & Fade: Waste Management Open + TGL

Welcome to v4 of Crush & Fade on Enter Sandman Sports. We’ll reflect on last week’s performance before turning our eyes forward to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Open.  We have found our groove playing some classic Sandman baby fades aka some “Fairway Finders” [Top20 plays].  This week we are back with our TGL pick, looking to go to 3-1 on the season.

TGL

Last week’s match between Tiger Woods’ Jupiter Links squad & Rory McIlroy’s Boston Common was the first competitive contest in TGL history.  It was really entertaining.  I still have no idea why they decided to have the biggest match in the young league’s history on a Monday afternoon at 3:30PM Pacific?  Dumb.

2025 Sandman Golf Crush & Fade TGL Record – 2-1

Boston Common (-110) vs LA GC (-120) (*All lines are from ESPN BET)

Will Rory have a Pebble Beach hangover?  On paper, this is a fantastic match.  Boston’s team of Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy & Adam Scott is rock solid and is now a bit more familiar with the rhythm of TGL’s pace of play.  They will have the nerves worked out and I expect will play better than they did versus Jupiter Links…especially on the greens.  LA has three guys that just finished in the Top25 at Pebble – Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose & Tommy Fleetwood.  Fleetwood steps in for their 2^nd match replacing Sahith Theegala.  LA boat raced Jupiter Links in their first match and I expect them to keep things rolling this week.

SLIGHT CRUSH: LA GC GC -120

Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Congrats to Rory McIlroy who picks up his 27^th win on Tour.  He led the field in driving distance at 336.7 yards and picked up a massive 6.173 strokes on the field off the tee.  Rory is one of my favorite players on Tour and when he is rolling like he was this week he can’t be beat.  It was incredible to see Rory & fellow countryman Shane Lowry both get aces on Thursday during the 1^st round…Rory at Spyglass and Shane on the infamous 7^th hole at Pebble Beach.  They went on to finish 1^st & 2^nd as well.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

After the elevated event on the Monterey Peninsula the Tour heads east to TPC Scottsdale.  This tournament has garnered a reputation as the biggest party atmosphere on the PGA Tour schedule.  The famous 16^th is the craziest scene in professional golf. 

The defending champion is Canadian & UW Husky golfer Nick Taylor who won in a playoff in 2024 besting Charley Hoffman.  The setup will be tougher this year as the Tour has let the rough grow to a thick 3.5” more than an inch longer than in past years in hopes that missing fairways will be a lot more penal.

I have my eyes on a few guys this week who have shown the ability to master the insane scene in Scottsdale the past few years.

Sandman Top Bets

Last week, I struggled with the Top20 plays as only Jason Day delivered.  Did you see his sweats outfit on Sunday?  I am all for being comfortable, but that was pushing it.  Good for Jason for continuing to redefine dress code on the PGA Tour.

A reminder that each week I will highlight some players I think might be good plays in this category. I might stretch to find the value and steer clear of the chalky plays in some tournaments.

I am a golf picker that loves recent form and course history more than anything.

So with those themes in mind and looking to get back on track, I am focused on cashing tickets this week with my “Fairway Finder” Top20 plays and really like Tom Kim, Nick Taylor, Billy Horschel and a longer play with Andrew Novak this week.

• Tom Kim is one of the most entertaining players in golf.  The 22-year-old showman was on full display during his 1^st TGL match last week and he carried it over to Pebble Beach where he topped drives, chipped in, drained long putts and just kept fighting until the 72^nd hole.
• Nick Taylor has all the mojo working right now.  He has been playing well and comes in as the defending champion.  While that can quite often lead to more pressure I think he has nothing but great vibes this week.
• Billy Horschel has been in great form and loves this kind of atmosphere.
• Andrew Novak has been on a roll. The American has been hot early this year and finished T8 last year.  Give me this as my favorite play of the week!

CRUSH: Tom Kim Top20 +130 CRUSH: Nick Taylor Top20 +220 CRUSH: Billy Horschel Top20 +250 CRUSH: Andrew Novak Top20 +260

Picking guys to FADE can be a bit trickier given there isn’t a bet you are playing but rather looking at some of the chalkier picks that I think might struggle this week.

Sepp Straka has been playing so well, but you have to wonder if he has a bit of a hangover after being the 36 & 54-hole leader at Pebble and then ultimately falling back on Sunday.

Matt Fitzpatrick seems like he hasn’t been Matt Fitzpatrick in quite a while.  I would avoid Matt until he shows he can be consistent over 4 rounds again.

FADE: Sepp Straka Top10 +360 FADE: Matt Fitzpatrick Top10 +500

Good luck this week!

The Sandman