Seven best win total bets ahead of the 2025 MLB season
Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Garrett Crochet, and Max Fried headlined an enthralling MLB offseason. The rich got richer for the most part, yet there were some interesting moves from smaller-market teams, including the Athletics splashing the cash to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.
There’s a lot to think about with this season’s MLB win totals. Projections from PECOTA and FanGraphs are informative. It’s also useful to look at how teams have fared in this market previously.
Here are our seven best win total bets for the 2025 season.
Pittsburgh Pirates over 76.5 wins — +106 at FanDuel
Spencer Horwitz, Adam Frazier, Caleb Ferguson, and Tim Mayza were not the most exciting of winter acquisitions for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh didn’t bring in much high-upside MLB talent, yet this line is still harsh.
Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, and Bubba Chandler could form one of the top five rotations in baseball. Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, and Ke’Bryan Hayes are breakout candidates in a lineup which was only just below league-average in xwOBA in 2024.
The Pirates won 76 games last season. The National League Central has got weaker.
Bettors will rightly be wary of backing the perennial non-contenders to hit the over here, but it’s an excellent value bet given the talent on the roster, even if you don’t fancy them to end their playoff drought.
Miami Marlins under 63.5 wins — -120 at DraftKings
PECOTA tabs the Miami Marlins for the third-worst record in 2025. Miami won 62 games in 2024 and has lost Trevor Rogers, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Luis Arráez, and Jake Burger over the last 12 months. Yes, Sandy Alcantara returns from injury, but Braxton Garrett and Eury Pérez will miss most or all of 2025.
The Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox are the only teams projected for less fWAR. Alcantara is a trade candidate if he performs at close to his pre-injury.
In a division with three of the four best NL teams and an improving Washington Nationals, the Marlins are staring down the barrel of another 100-loss season.
San Diego Padres over 85.5 wins — -110 at FanDuel
Being in the same division as a juggernaut doesn’t matter as much as it used to thanks to the balanced schedule. The San Diego Padres only play the Los Angeles Dodgers 13 times in 2025, giving them ample opportunity to rack up wins elsewhere.
After slumping to 37-40 in mid-June, San Diego went on a tear to finish with 93 wins. They had the best record in the big leagues from July 1.
Ownership conflicts led to a quiet offseason. Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, and Tanner Scott left as free agents. The Padres have more than enough talent to compete for a wild-card spot, however, even with Joe Musgrove ruled out for the year.
San Francisco Giants to win 80+ games — +112 at FanDuel
The San Francisco Giants have won 81, 79, and 80 games over the last three seasons. Their record-breaking 107-win haul in 2021 was the ultimate anomaly amid a period of sustained mediocrity in San Francisco.
Replacing Blake Snell with a 42-year-old Justin Verlander doesn’t indicate the Giants are going to be much better in 2025. San Francisco also added Willy Adames to form an elite shortstop-third base combination with Matt Chapman, though, and Jung-Ho Lee is expected to be healthy for opening day.
Buster Posey should handle the development of Marco Luciano, Bryce Eldridge, and Luis Matos better than the previous regime did. Logan Webb, Verlander, and Robbie Ray could be an impressive front three of the rotation, accompanied by some exciting young arms.
The Giants aren’t going to tear it down. They should get into the eighties in wins, even if they’re a long way off the final wild-card place.
Tampa Bay Rays over 79.5 wins — -115 at Caesars
The Tampa Bay Rays won 80 games last year, despite Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Shane McClanahan combining for 21 starts. They still ranked 11th in xwOBA against.
Springs has been dealt to the Athletics. McClanahan and Baz are healthy, though, forming an impressive rotation with Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot. The offense isn’t stacked, but Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Brandon Lowe could all be in the 120 wRC+ range.
Carson Williams should make the big leagues in 2025. The bullpen, as always, will be elite. Danny Jansen is a solid upgrade at catcher, and projections are high on Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda.
Baltimore Orioles under 88.5 wins — -110 at DraftKings
The American League East is the deepest division in the majors. All five are trying to compete. Baltimore went 42-46 from June 20 onwards last season, finishing their campaign with a 2-0 wild-card loss to the Kansas City Royals.
Their offseason has been underwhelming. Corbin Burnes left as a free agent with Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton as the only adds to the rotation. Tyler O’Neill is a decent replacement for Anthony Santander, but no one should be concerned about the offense.
Baltimore was 10th in xwOBA allowed last season. They have removed a Cy Young contender in Burnes, leaving Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop the rotation. Only seven teams are projected for less fWAR from their starting pitchers than the O’s.
The pitching staff as a whole is below average. Their offense is likely to be in the top five in the majors, but that doesn’t guarantee an 89-win season.
New York Mets under 91.5 wins — -110 at DraftKings
Adding Juan Soto to an 89-win team results in a 91.5 line for the New York Mets. From 11 games below .500 in June, the Mets’ season was the opposite of the Orioles’, finishing with an NLCS appearance.
New York was 17th in xwOBA conceded. Kodai Senga being healthy for a full season should improve the rotation, and it’ll be interesting to see how Clay Holmes adapts to being a starter. Holmes, Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and David Peterson is a pretty mediocre group, though, which ranks in the bottom 10 in projected fWAR.
Soto and Francisco Lindor might be the sport’s best duo. Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo provide lineup depth.
There’s a lot to like about this Mets team, but this line is on the high side. Their rotation makes them far more likely to be a wild-card team than to finish ahead of the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
Want to learn more about wagering on win totals? Check out my Guide to Betting MLB Win Totals.
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