Bierman’s Best Bets: Masters Edition
The Masters is here, and like every year, I’ve got a few names circled — and a few I’m steering clear of. Whether you’re betting the outright, a top 10, or looking for a guy to put in your pools lineups, here’s who I’m riding with at Augusta this week… and who I’m avoiding.
Two I’m Backing
Collin Morikawa
Current Odds on Draftkings: +1800 to win, +280 Top 5, +130 Top 10
I love this pick.
Morikawa’s been sharp this season, with runner-up finishes at both The Sentry and The Arnold Palmer. He’s quietly playing really well, and Augusta just fits his game.
He finished third here last year, and his iron play is tailor-made for this course. That’s always been his calling card, but this year he’s also:
- 4th in driving accuracy
- 9th in greens in regulation
- 5th in putting average (!!)
- And he’s made 22 straight cuts
The putting stat surprised me the most — he’s been inconsistent in the past with the flat stick and that can be a killer in this tourney. But if that part of his game holds up this week, I think Morikawa has a legit shot to win his first green jacket.
Russell Henley
Current Odds on Draftkings: +5500 to win, +700 Top 5, +300 Top 10
If you’re looking for a value play, Henley is it.
He finished T4 here in 2023, so he’s shown he can contend at Augusta. He’s also 3rd on Tour in greens in regulation and 10th in putting average, which is a dangerous combo for this track. Add in a bounce-back ranking of 21st and 19 consecutive cuts made, and you’ve got one of the more underratedly consistent players on Tour.
Henley’s not flashy, but this is a guy who quietly checks every box. If the putter gets hot, don’t be surprised to see him hanging around the leaderboard come Sunday.
Two I’m Avoiding
Rory McIlroy
Believe me… I want to be wrong on this one. Every year I talk myself into Rory……and virtually every year I walk away disappointed. Well not this time.
While Rory has had a very solid season thus far and he did finish second here in 2022, he’s also missed the cut twice in the last four years and can be extremely inconsistent on the big stage.
This feels like another year where he’s coming in with momentum, people are jumping on the bandwagon… and I just can’t do it again. Rory is one of the best in the world, and I want him to get his elusive green jacket. But I just don’t trust him to close the deal this year.
Ludvig Åberg
I don’t have any deep personal bias here — in fact, Åberg’s an incredible talent and had a breakout moment with his runner-up finish in last year’s Masters debut.
But since then? It’s been up and down. He won at The Genesis in February, which was great, but then missed the cut at The Players and again at the Valero Texas Open just last week. Not exactly the trend you want to see heading into Augusta.
Even Åberg himself has admitted his approach play hasn’t been where he wants it, and on this course, that’s not a minor issue.
There’s a lot to like about his future, and he may even notch a major later this year, but I’m not backing him this week.
Final Thoughts
Morikawa and Henley feel like smart, well-rounded plays with value. McIlroy and Åberg are great players I often root for, but there just are too many question marks in my mind this week for both of them.
Augusta’s not the kind of place where you can fake your way through 72 holes. You have to be sharp tee-to-green, confident with the putter, and mentally locked in. If you’re missing any of those pieces — even just a little — Augusta will expose it.
So with that… let’s tee it up. Let’s listen to the iconic voice of Jim Nantz. And let’s win some bets.
