Sandman Crush & Fade: CJ CUP Byron NELSON
Welcome to Crush & Fade – your weekly look ahead to the current PGA Tour event, including some Byron Nelson Predictions, along with a quick look back at the last tournament.
Zurich Classic Recap (Team Event)
Andrew Novak & Ben Griffin captured their first career PGA Tour victory at TPC Louisiana. Just a week ago, Novak lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage. And now he’s a champion.
The Zurich Classic stands out as the Tour’s only team event, demanding strong performance in best ball (Rounds 1 & 3) and especially in alternate shot (Rounds 2 & 4). Novak has quietly climbed into the Ryder Cup conversation with his consistent 2025 play, and this win adds momentum.
This Week: CJ CUP Byron Nelson
The Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Canada’s Taylor Pendrith defends his title, but all eyes are on hometown favorite Scottie Scheffler — still seeking his first win of 2025 and installed as the heavy favorite at +280.
Jordan Spieth, another Texas native, is the second choice at +1700 — but spoiler alert: I’m fading Greller’s man this week.
Sandman Top Bets
This week sets up for value if you’re willing to fade the chalk. TPC Craig Ranch rewards aggressive play and strong putting. Even with Scottie’s elite ball-striking, he’ll need a hot putter to win.
Crush Picks
- Si Woo Kim – Top 10 (+375)
Aggressive driver who can thrive here. Si Woo is streaky-hot and sets up well to crack the Top 10. - Jake Knapp – Top 20 (+300)
Long off the tee and confident. He played well here last year and has the game to land in the 11–20 range again. - Ryo Hisatsune – Top 10 (+700)
One of the hottest players coming in. Quirky putting routine aside, he’s in elite form and a great value play. - Ben Griffin – Top 10 (+450)
It’s tough to win back-to-back, but I love his mindset. The confidence and putting stroke are dialed in. After hearing him on Foreplay, I’m convinced he’s locked in. - Scottie Scheffler – Win (+280)
No surprise here. He’s the class of the field, and if you want action on him, this is the play. Don’t get cute — just bet the win line.
CRUSH: Si Woo Kim Top 10 (+375)
CRUSH: Jake Knapp Top 20 (+300)
CRUSH: Ryo Hisatsune Top 10 (+700)
CRUSH: Ben Griffin Top 10 (+450)
CRUSH: Scottie Scheffler to Win (+280)
Sandman Fade of the Week
Picking fades is tougher — you’re not betting against someone directly, but highlighting players who are overvalued.
This week’s fade is:
Jordan Spieth
- Top 10: +250
- Top 20: +130
- Win: +1700
Jordan’s game lacks consistency right now. Sure, everyone loves a Texas guy in Texas. But he’s been leaning too much on his short game to cover up weak ball-striking. That’s not a formula for winning.
FADE: Jordan Spieth Top 10 (+250)
FADE: Jordan Spieth Top 20 (+130)
FADE: Jordan Spieth to Win (+1700)
Good luck this week!
— The Sandman
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