A Look at MLB Awards One Month In: Early Favorites

There might be several months and over 100 games (per team) left in the 2025 MLB season, but the end of April seems like a good time to check in on the major award races.

Jacob Wilson and Kristian Campbell have surged in the AL Rookie of the Year contest, while Roki Sasaki’s slow start has given others a chance in the National League. The Cy Young battles are fascinating, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hunter Greene among the big early-season movers.

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, the two defending MVPs, remain the betting favorites, but how realistic is it that both players go back-to-back? Kyle Tucker, Corbin Carroll, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have surged in the NL, while Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. have ground to make up in the AL.

AL MVP

Aaron Judge – -600
Bobby Witt Jr. – +800
Mike Trout – +3500
Gunnar Henderson – +4000

Witt might be the best shortstop in baseball, but that’s not enough to be AL MVP favorite with a month of the season behind us. After a historically great runner-up campaign, Witt is again left in Judge’s wake.

A wager on anyone other than Judge is effectively a bet on Judge missing a significant period of time. Witt is unlikely to replicate his spectacular 2024, and even if he does, a full season from Judge is going to be more valuable.

Trout has morphed into a low-contact, high-power slugger. His MVP-winning days are over. Henderson has a lot of ground to make up after a slow start.

Corey Seager and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have elite expected metrics. Seager is unlikely to play enough games and Guerrero has an OPS+ 125 points behind Judge. The pair – both priced at +5000 – are worth consideration if you’re after a longshot, but Witt is the most realistic beneficiary if Judge is sidelined.

Best bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+800)

NL MVP

Shohei Ohtani – +290
Kyle Tucker – +350
Fernando Tatis Jr. – +450
Corbin Carroll – +500
Pete Alonso – +700

Ohtani’s return to the mound has been delayed until the middle of the season. While still one of the best players in baseball, the NL MVP race is far from a foregone conclusion if Ohtani is a DH.

Tatis, Alonso, Carroll, and Tucker are ahead of Ohtani in the xwOBA leaderboard. Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Oneil Cruz are just behind the two-way phenomenon.

Tatis and Carroll provide significant value with their gloves in the outfield. They are also excellent baserunners with the potential to lead the NL in homers and stolen bases. Tucker is perhaps the best overall hitter of the chasing trio, but he’s a weak defender.

A compelling case can be made for any of Tucker, Tatis, or Carroll. It’s not often Ohtani will be at this price, either, and he could run away with this award if his return to pitching goes as planned.

Juan Soto might be the pick of the bunch, however. Soto has drifted all the way to +2800, yet he might have the highest offensive ceiling in the National League. It won’t be long before his OPS starts with a nine and he’s in the top five in NL MVP betting.

Best bet: Juan Soto (+2800)

AL Cy Young

Garrett Crochet – +250
Tarik Skubal – +250
Max Fried – +600
Hunter Brown – +650
Cole Ragans – +1800

Brown is the most surprising name in the top five, despite pitching to a 2.31 ERA over his final 22 starts of the 2024 regular season. Crochet, Skubal, Fried, and Ragans were among the preseason favorites, with all four pitching at a high level to start this year.

Fried is the option to steer clear of due to the chasm between his outcomes and his underlying metrics. Crochet has shown brief command issues, which could undermine his candidacy and limit his workload. Skubal, meanwhile, looks just like the Triple Crown winner we watched in 2024.

Logan Gilbert (+5500) and Shane Baz (+2500) are names to keep an eye on. The pair have the two lowest xERA marks in the AL.

Best bet: Tarik Skubal (+250)

NL Cy Young

Paul Skenes – +190
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – +500
Hunter Greene – +600
Zack Wheeler – +900
Logan Webb – +1200

Greene was the second Hunter included in our preseason Cy Young longshots. Like Brown, Greene has excelled in his first few starts of the year, elevating himself into the NL Cy Young mix behind Paul Skenes and Yamamoto.

Possessing unhittable stuff, Greene’s 124 stuff+ is miles clear of any other NL pitcher, including Skenes. Yamamoto has pitched at an elite level, but his odds might lengthen in the coming weeks when he inevitably experiences some regression (his 1.06 ERA is not going to sustain for a full season).

It feels like it’s Skenes’ award to lose. Greene has the stuff to post similar numbers over 160+ innings, though, and the duo of Wheeler and Webb could have enough extra volume to give them a real shot at topping the voting.

Best bet: Hunter Greene (+600)

AL Rookie of the Year

Jacob Wilson — +145
Kristian Campbell — +150
Jasson Dominguez — +900
Nick Kurtz — +1300
Jackson Jobe — +1600

The low-walk, low-strikeout approach of Wilson has made him the AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Betting markets have Wilson narrowly ahead of Campbell, who has demonstrated good plate discipline and power while enduring some difficult moments with the glove.

It’s too early to evaluate Kurtz after being promoted to the big leagues last week. Domínguez has an OPS+ just above 100, but he’s striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances and has a 7.1% barrel rate. There’s no value backing Domínguez at his current price, particularly with his continued struggles in the outfield.

Jobe is an intriguing option at +1600. He’s got a wipeout slider and high-90s fastball. His results this year are better than his underlying numbers, but there’s a significant uptick in his stuff+. Already in the Tigers’ rotation, there’s a world where Jobe ends up getting Cy Young votes and cruising to this honor.

Way out at +10000, this is a good time to back Coby Mayo. The Baltimore Orioles need an offensive boost, and Mayo has an OPS of .832 in Triple-A. The highly regarded prospect has plenty of time to play his way into the mix.

Best bet: Jackson Jobe (+1600)

NL Rookie of the Year

Dylan Crews – +240
Roki Sasaki – +320
Agustin Ramirez – +330
Bubba Chandler – +1000
Drake Baldwin – +2500

Sasaki’s command issues have opened up the conversation around NL Rookie of the Year. Unlike the AL, no one has really impressed in the National League, with Crews enduring a brutal cold streak to start the year and Chandler spending all the season to date in the minor leagues.

Sasaki’s stuff hasn’t been as dominant as expected, and he’s been walking more than a batter every other inning. Ramirez has quickly made an impact for the Miami Marlins, but will a catcher with a so-so hitting record in the minors really compete for this award into August and September? Probably not.

Crews has been crushing the ball (15.7% barrel rate) and has the speed to post a 30-30 season. He’s the rightful favorite right now, but Chandler’s elite stuff makes him a good option. The Pittsburgh Pirates need all the help they can get, so he should get called up soon.

Best bet: Bubba Chandler (+1000)

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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