Five MLB Teams worth betting to miss the playoffs
Just over a month into the 2025 MLB season, some teams are looking to build on hot starts, while others are trying to claw out of early-season slumps. With more than 100 games still left to play, there’s plenty of time for standings to shift.
But that also means betting markets are still ripe with overreactions.
Even sizable leads can vanish in a week. And for the most part, the teams projected to make the playoffs before Opening Day still have short odds to get there — which can offer sneaky value if you’re willing to bet against them.
Here are five teams worth betting to miss the playoffs, with odds via DraftKings:
New York Yankees – +310
Yes, they’re leading the AL East and rank top 10 in both offensive and pitching xwOBA. Yes, Aaron Judge is still maybe the best right-handed hitter alive. But that doesn’t mean the Yankees are a lock.
If Judge misses any time, this offense suddenly looks a lot more ordinary. Gerrit Cole’s injury is still a dark cloud, and this rotation is relying heavily on Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Carrasco, and Will Warren.
The AL East is brutal. The Rays are surging, the Blue Jays are quietly competitive, and Boston added pieces and has three elite prospects on the rise. This isn’t a division you cruise through.
Also — can we really count on star turns from Trent Grisham and Ben Rice all season? Or a late-career revival from Paul Goldschmidt? The rotation could easily bottom out, especially if Cole has a setback.
This is a great price on a team with real flaws.
Baltimore Orioles – -295
Only the Marlins and Rockies have a worse rotation ERA than the Orioles. They’re already 6.5 games back in the division, and their offseason refusal to re-sign Corbin Burnes or land another top-tier starter looks like it may cost them the year.
Even at -295, there’s value in fading this team.
The rotation’s a mess, and the lineup — which was supposed to be elite — has underperformed. Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Tyler O’Neill have all fallen short of expectations. If the offense doesn’t rebound in a big way, Baltimore could spiral fast.
Atlanta Braves – +135
It’s wild to see Atlanta here, but the case is real.
They rank 20th in xwOBA allowed, and their offensive struggles from 2024 are lingering. Yes, they’re heating up and climbing the NL East standings, but this might be the perfect moment to sell high.
The rotation is thin. Chris Sale looks like a shell of his 2023 form. Spencer Strider is hurt again. Spencer Schwellenbach is suddenly their most reliable starter — not great.
Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return helps, but with the Mets surging and the Phillies looking solid, Atlanta is going to be fighting for a wild card spot — and they’ll have to outpace San Diego, Arizona, and others. This price is tempting for a team with more questions than answers.
Detroit Tigers – +260
The Tigers lead the AL Central and are 18–11 — but this might be the best price you’ll get to fade them.
One bad week and their wild card cushion could disappear.
The Central likely won’t send three teams to the playoffs like it did last year, and if the East and West each grab a wild card spot, Detroit could be left out. The Twins were seen as the most complete team pre-season, and the Guardians are, once again, overachieving.
Is this Tigers lineup actually good enough to be a playoff team? They’ve been clutch so far, but that might not last.
San Francisco Giants – -110
The Giants were projected to finish fourth in the NL West — and despite a hot start (15–8 vs. teams above .500), the questions remain.
Their rotation behind Logan Webb is shaky. Verlander has looked average, Jordan Hicks is inconsistent, and who knows how long Robbie Ray can stay healthy.
Offensively, regression is coming. Wilmer Flores won’t stay this hot, and while Jung Hoo Lee has been a revelation, it’s still early. The Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs are all stronger on paper — and in a full 162-game grind, that matters.
Even with Buster Posey back and some splashy offseason signings, the implied 50/50 shot of them making the playoffs feels generous.
Final Thoughts:
It’s early, but that’s exactly when the best betting value exists — when teams are outperforming reality, and the market hasn’t fully corrected.
Keep your eyes on the rotations, injury news, and run differentials. There’s still a long road ahead, and plenty of opportunities to fade teams that are flying just a little too close to the sun.
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