Welcome to Sandman’s Crush & Fade. This weekly article series previews the current PGA Tour event while taking a quick look back at the previous tournament. This week, we will dive into the Crush & Fade picks for the PGA Championship.
Recap: The Truist Championship
There were plenty of questions heading into last week’s Truist Championship after the venue change. With Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship, the event shifted to Philadelphia Cricket Club. Despite the switch, the course delivered. The classic Par 70 layout looked incredible on the broadcast and was well received by the players.
After a low-scoring Thursday, the course held up beautifully thanks to wind and weather changes, plus creative Sunday pin placements. Sepp Straka outlasted Shane Lowry in a tight final-round battle, earning his second win of the season. The Georgia Bulldog by way of Austria looks like a serious piece of Europe’s Ryder Cup puzzle heading into Bethpage later this year.
Preview: PGA Championship at Quail Hollow
This week, the Tour heads to Charlotte for the second major of the 2025 season. Quail Hollow is set up as a beast, stretching to 7,626 yards on a Par 71 track that should play much tougher than in previous years when it hosted non-major events.
Xander Schauffele is the defending PGA champion after holding off Bryson DeChambeau in a dramatic finish last year. He has been rounding into form after a slow start to 2025.
Rory McIlroy is the defending champion at Quail Hollow, having dominated the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship by five strokes. His history at this course is borderline absurd, with four wins and players jokingly calling it the Rory McIlroy Open.
This year’s setup will be a true test. The infamous stretch known as The Green Mile (holes 16 through 18) will challenge even the most composed players. The Par 3s stand out as a major obstacle, with hole 4 being the only one under 200 yards. Holes 6, 13, and 17 all play over 200 yards and could decide the tournament.
One more wrinkle: twenty PGA Professionals are in the field, including Michael Block, who made a magical run in 2023. My guess is under three of them make the cut, and I would not mind betting that.
Sandman Top Bets
The cut format this week is Top 70 plus ties. I will be avoiding cut line props due to the strength of the field and focusing more on top-tier players with real Sunday upside.
I love Rory. I love JT. I love Bryson. It feels like a throwback week when the stars are actually playing the same event again. However, the odds are not great for backing all three. Instead, I am locking in a few favorites and jumping aboard the Jon Rahm train, who feels overdue for a breakout.
Rory McIlroy to Win +475
Rory’s history at Quail Hollow is elite. Even with some holes being lengthened to level the playing field, he remains the best course fit in the field. His game is sharp, and I cannot pass on him this week.
Justin Thomas to Win +1600 | Top 10 +210
JT is peaking at the right time. His irons have been dialed, and he is converting on greens in regulation with confident putting. He has already won this major twice and is locked in right now.
Jon Rahm to Win +2000 | Top 10 +190
Rahm has been hot on LIV and feels due for a strong PGA showing. His results since switching tours have been inconsistent, but his game suits this track well. I believe he contends this week.
CRUSH Plays
- Rory McIlroy WIN +475
- Justin Thomas WIN +1600
- Jon Rahm WIN +2000
Fade of the Week
Picking fades is always trickier since you are betting against a top name. This week, I am focusing on Ludvig Aberg.
He has only played in one PGA Championship, missing the cut in 2024. He has never teed it up at Quail Hollow, and while that is not a deal breaker, I am just not liking what I have seen from his game lately. His tee-to-green consistency has dropped, and this course will not allow for much margin.
FADE: Ludvig Aberg
- To Win +2200
- Top 10 +260
- Top 20 +130
Good luck this week and enjoy what should be an incredible major at one of golf’s best venues. – The Sandman
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