Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 4
Alright Sandman Nation, we went 1-2 in our college football best bets last week, but we’re still sitting at a solid 8-5 for the season. This week, we’ve got TEN GAMES on deck—plenty of chances to bounce back and make some money!
Before we dive into this week’s picks, it’s worth noting that 14 teams are currently undefeated against the spread (ATS) this season. Those teams are: Arizona State, Baylor, Boston College, BYU, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, Memphis, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, San Jose State, South Florida, Tennessee, Texas, UNLV, and Washington State.
While I don’t have UNLV on my slate, it’s worth pointing out that they’ve been particularly strong ATS, going 13-4 in their last 17 games under head coach Barry Odom. That said, I am picking against one of these undefeated ATS teams and backing another one. Check out the details below for this week’s picks!
Arkansas State (+21) at Iowa State (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Red Wolves had their moments at Michigan’s Big House, managing to score twice late against a tough defense. Iowa State’s offense has struggled, currently ranked 87th in scoring. The last time the Cyclones hosted a Sun Belt team, they lost to Louisiana, and they have a history of underperforming in non-conference home games. With Arkansas State showing some resilience, I like them to cover the spread in this matchup.
The Pick: Arkansas State +21
Southern Miss at Jacksonville State (-6.5)
Both of these teams are off to rough starts, combining for just one win so far this season. Rich Rodriguez is working to implement his up-tempo offense at Jacksonville State, and they can score in bunches. Across the field, Southern Miss has been dreadful on both sides of the ball, averaging just 12 points per game and giving up 440 yards per game on defense. Jacksonville State had a close call against Eastern Michigan and kept it close for the first half against Louisville. I expect the Gamecocks to win by double digits at home, securing their first victory of the season.
The Pick: Jacksonville State -6.5
Miami (OH) (+27) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame bounced back in a big way from their embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, thrashing Purdue 66-7. Miami (OH), on the other hand, fell short against Cincinnati in the Victory Bell rivalry, failing to convert on a key fourth down late. The RedHawk offense, expected to be a strength, has only averaged 11 points per game, but signs of improvement are there. I expect Brett Gabbert and the offense to fall behind early but rally enough to keep it respectable. Notre Dame will still win comfortably, but Miami (OH) will cover the spread.
The Pick: Miami (OH) +27
UCLA at LSU (-23)
UCLA’s transition to the Big Ten hasn’t gone smoothly. The Bruins were crushed by Indiana in the Rose Bowl, losing 42-13, and showed a lack of discipline and talent. Deshaun Foster’s tenure as head coach looks shaky, and he is not the long-term answer at UCLA. Meanwhile, LSU pulled off a thrilling win in Columbia against South Carolina. While LSU’s offense ranks only 54th, I see it breaking out this weekend against a generous UCLA defense. The Tigers should dominate at home and cover the 23-point spread with ease.
The Pick: LSU -23
Arizona State at Texas Tech (-3)
Texas Tech has been strong in Big 12 home openers, going 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five. Unsurprisingly, the Red Raiders have an explosive offense, averaging 41 points per game, 13th in the nation. Arizona State remains undefeated, but they haven’t faced top competition. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton is coming off a five-touchdown performance against North Texas. I expect Texas Tech to handle business at home and cover the spread.
The Pick: Texas Tech -3
Rutgers (+4.5) at Virginia Tech
Surprisingly, Rutgers ranks 4th in points per game and 10th in total yards. Virginia Tech has been solid but not spectacular on both sides of the ball. While at Sandman Sports we all love the Hokies’ “Enter Sandman” entrance, Rutgers brings something special to the table this season. Transfer QB Athan Kaliakmanis has brought leadership, and their disciplined rushing offense will pose problems for Virginia Tech. Rutgers has a strong track record in road non-conference games, and I expect them to keep this one close, if not win outright. Take the Scarlet Knights and the points.
The Pick: Rutgers +4.5
Vanderbilt at Missouri (-20.5)
Missouri battled through a tough win against Boston College, showing resilience in the process. This weekend, they won’t face as much resistance with Vanderbilt coming to Columbia. While Vanderbilt surprised everyone with a win at Virginia Tech and boasts a talented dual-threat quarterback in Diego Pavia, they remain an inconsistent team. Missouri’s defense, ranked 11th in the nation, will stifle Vanderbilt’s offense, and their own offense will put up enough points to win comfortably and cover the spread.
The Pick: Missouri -20.5
Miami (FL) at South Florida (+17.5)
The Miami Hurricanes have been dominant this season, ranking 3rd in both scoring offense and defensive yards allowed. South Florida, however, won’t back down easily. The Bulls’ defense may give up yards, but their offense can score quickly, and they’ve already faced Alabama this season, so they won’t be intimidated. South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown looked sharp against Southern Miss, and I expect him to keep this game close. Miami wins, but South Florida covers the spread.
The Pick: South Florida +17.5
Northwestern (+10.5) at Washington
Washington is coming off a disappointing loss to rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, while Northwestern has shown flashes under head coach David Braun. The Wildcats will be energized to play their first true road game of the season, and I believe they’ll thrive in the environment. Similar to Indiana’s success at UCLA last week, I expect Northwestern’s defense to cause turnovers and keep this game close, with the potential to pull off an upset. Take the Wildcats and the points.
The Pick: Northwestern +10.5
Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5)
Michigan State may be undefeated, but they’ve been one of the more overrated teams so far. Their offense ranks 83rd overall, and that inconsistency will be a problem against a solid Boston College team. The Eagles nearly upset Missouri on the road, and under head coach Bill O’Brien, they’re returning to respectability. While Michigan State has made strides, I’m not sold on QB Aidan Chiles in critical moments. Boston College should cover the spread and hand the Spartans their first loss of the season.
The Pick: Boston College – 6.5
