The Detroit Pistons averaged 18.8 wins over the last five seasons. They have 22 wins before the All-Star break in 2024/25, which is their second-highest total in any season since a 40-40 record in 2018/19 ended with a first-round playoff exit.

Residing ninth in the Eastern Conference standings, Detroit is +164 to make the postseason at FanDuel. They are -205 to not make the playoffs. Bet365 prices the Pistons at -900 to participate in the play-in tournament (which indicates they have a 90% implied probability of finishing seventh, eighth, ninth, or 10^th in the East).

The Pistons are 17^th in net rating and eighth among Eastern Conference teams. Since dropping six games below .500 on Dec. 12, J.B. Bickerstaff’s team have gone on a 12-6 run. They have beaten the New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves during that spell.

What’s Changed?

A calamitous first season under Monty Williams meant a coaching change was inevitable. Bickerstaff has clearly had an impact on both ends of the floor, but the front office deserves praise for giving their new coach a balanced roster to work with.

Detroit was 29^th in three-point frequency last season. After adding Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr., they are 17^th in that category. As a team, they have leapt from 24^th in three-point efficiency to 12^th.

Unclogging the court has brought the offense into the 21^st century. It has given Cade Cunningham more space to operate and brought important spacing around non-shooters Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. They are scoring 3.9 points more per 100 halfcourt plays than in 2023/24.

On the defensive end, the Pistons are third in opponent field goal frequency in the restricted area. It’s the first time they’ve been above 19^th in that category since 2018/19. When opponents do get to the rim, they are often met by a contest from Thompson, Duren, or Isaiah Stewart, which contributes to Detroit’s improvement from 26^th to 15^th in opponent field goal percentage at the basket.

The difference in clutch games is significant, too. Detroit went 8-27 in clutch games last season with a brutal 91.7 net rating. Only two teams have played more clutch games so far in 2024/25 – testament to the team’s competitiveness – with Detroit going 14-10 in those contests.

Their offensive rating in clutch minutes is up to 105.3. A high turnover rate and a 63.5% defensive rebounding rate show their clutch minutes are a work in progress, but the improvement has been a huge part of their success so far this season.

All-Star Cade

Cunningham, the first overall pick in 2021, has had to overcome poor coaching and woeful roster construction through his first few years in the league. Averaging 20 points, 6.5 assists, and five rebounds per game coming into this season, a maximum contract raised some eyebrows.

His talent, though, has been evident even in difficult circumstances. Surrounded by shooting and an ideal pick-and-roll partner in Duren, Cunningham has excelled this season, scoring 24.5 points per game with 9.5 dimes. He’s making over 37% of his threes.

With space to drive, Cunningham is taking fewer mid-range shots, getting to the rim at a career-high rate, and frequently picking out open teammates. Only four players have a higher assist rate this season, plus he ranks fifth in usage rate behind LaMelo Ball, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Dončić.

All of the major sportsbooks have Cunningham as the clear favorite for Most Improved Player. Detroit’s ‘gamble’ with his contract extension is already a success. This is the player the Pistons can build around long-term, which is what was expected when Cunningham was drafted almost four years ago.

Ivey’s Injury

Like Cunningham, Jaden Ivey was enjoying an excellent year. Unfortunately, Ivey’s season is likely over due to a broken fibula. His absence is a factor for bettors to be wary of when looking at the Pistons’ futures odds, given how reliant they now are on Cunningham’s ball handling.

With career-highs in true shooting, usage, scoring, and threes made per game, Ivey was looking like the perfect backcourt partner for Cunningham. His athleticism gave Detroit another weapon in transition, while his ball-handling diversified an offense which can become heliocentric.

The Pistons have a -5.6 net rating in non-Cunningham minutes. Their offense slumps to a rating of 107.8, which would rank 28^th. Ivey was available for many of the struggles when Cunningham rested, but his absence leaves the Pistons alarmingly short on shot creation.

Detroit might look to pick up another bench guard before the trade deadline to fill some of Ivey’s minutes going forward.

Pistons Playoff Odds

Only one game behind the sixth-placed Atlanta Hawks in the loss column, the Pistons are firmly in the playoff race. With the Orlando Magic getting healthy and the Philadelphia 76ers looming, forcing their way into the top six seems unlikely unless Trajan Langdon makes a splash at the trade deadline.

Philadelphia could be facing a lost season with Paul George’s underperformance and Joel Embiid’s persistent injury issues. The Miami Heat want to compete but that doesn’t look realistic, given Jimmy Butler’s desire to be traded. The Chicago Bulls are looking to sell at the trade deadline with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević available.

Sixth and seventh might be out of reach. The eight seed is not. Detroit, as the odds indicate, is destined for the play-in tournament, but the difference between eighth and ninth is huge.

With Cunningham surrounded by several shooters who could get hot in a winner-takes-all game, no team will relish facing the Pistons in the play-in. Finish eighth and Bickerstaff only has to win one out of two for Detroit to end the second-longest postseason drought in the Association.