The 2025 NBA Finals might not be the big market matchup Adam Silver dreamed of when the playoffs began a few weeks ago, but this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers promises to be fascinating.
Sportsbooks make the Thunder an overwhelming favorite (minus 750 to win the series). Neither team has made it this far before, and it is guaranteed that a fanbase will lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in history.
The Thunder were a historically dominant regular season team, and they have backed that up with a stellar postseason. Indiana surged late in the regular season before defeating the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks behind a string of impressive wins.
Here are our best bets for the 2025 NBA Finals:
Pascal Siakam to Win Finals MVP (+1900)
Voters controversially selected Pascal Siakam as Eastern Conference Finals MVP. The fact he won this award in the last round makes him a strong bet for Finals MVP, just as Jaylen Brown edged out Jayson Tatum for the honor last year.
It is a foregone conclusion that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins Finals MVP if the Thunder claim the title. He is everything for Oklahoma City offensively, their lead creator and lead scorer.
Tyrese Haliburton is more of a traditional point guard, setting up his teammates and keeping the ball moving. Siakam is averaging 21.1 points per game while hitting 46.3 percent of his deep shots this postseason. He had three 30-point games in the Eastern Conference Finals and will have a big role to play defensively if Indiana pulls off an upset.
Indiana Pacers to Win Game 1 and Oklahoma City Thunder to Win the Series (+500)
Indiana has won Game 1 in all three of their Eastern Conference series, including a clutch performance at Madison Square Garden in the Conference Finals. Oklahoma City started strong in the first and third rounds but stumbled late in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals.
The pressure is on the Thunder coming into this series. Indiana has been fearless throughout the playoffs, thriving as underdogs against the Knicks and Cavaliers.
It would not be surprising if a young, inexperienced Thunder team starts cautiously in Game 1 before their superior talent takes over later in the series. The long layoff has also given them more time to think about the enormity of their potential achievement.
Indiana Pacers plus 2.5 Series Spread (+105)
If we like the Pacers to take Game 1, the plus 2.5 series spread (meaning Indiana must win at least two games) is strong value at plus 105. This Pacers offense, especially with how they have shot the ball in the playoffs, can surely take at least one more game and push the series to six or seven.
In Rick Carlisle, Indiana has a coach capable of designing a game plan to slow the Thunder’s offense, particularly with defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander.
Indiana’s fast pace could also expose weaknesses in the Thunder defense that teams like Denver and Minnesota could not exploit.
Over 5.5 Total Games (+120)
Following the same logic as the series spread, over 5.5 games is excellent value at plus 120. It is rare to get a number like this in the Finals unless an underdog is trying to topple a dynasty.
The Thunder might be heading toward that status with the league MVP, a deep roster, and plenty of trade assets, but they are not there yet. This is uncharted territory with massive expectations. A Thunder sweep is as short as plus 290, but it would be an outlier.
The last two Finals ending in five games broke a run of four consecutive Finals going to six. Those quick finishes are more the exception than the rule. Most titles are earned in deeper series.
Aaron Nesmith Most Made Threes (+390)
Nesmith has taken more threes per game than every player in this series aside from Haliburton, and he is hitting 50 percent of them. No Thunder player averaging more than eight minutes is making more than 1.9 threes per game.
For the Pacers to win, they need high volume shooting from Nesmith, Nembhard, and their other perimeter threats. Haliburton is taking more attempts at 7.1 per game, but his efficiency is lower, hovering around 33 percent.
Isaiah Hartenstein Most Rebounds (+480)
Hartenstein’s rebounding rate was nearly five points higher than Chet Holmgren’s during the regular season. Even if his minutes decline against Indiana’s spread offense, there is value in backing him here.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault may still trust his bigs to control the glass. Hartenstein is a physical presence who could punish Indiana’s frontcourt, especially with Myles Turner’s reputation as a below average rebounder.
Tyrese Haliburton to Make 2 or More Threes in Every Game (+350)
Haliburton has hit two or more threes in 14 of Indiana’s 16 playoff games.
The Thunder have the personnel to play him straight up, which could lower his field goal percentage, but it also might force more shot attempts. If Haliburton takes nine or ten threes per game as Indiana’s lead guard, this prop becomes very realistic.
One or More Game Winning Field Goals as Time Expires in the Series (+1200)
This has been the playoffs of the comeback. Haliburton and Indiana have delivered multiple times, including their iconic Game 1 win over the Knicks in the Conference Finals.
It is unlikely Indiana wins any game by a blowout, so their best chance might be more clutch magic from Siakam or Haliburton. This is a fun longshot bet to keep in your back pocket, especially during tight fourth quarters when every final second is drawn out by timeouts and replays.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
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