We’re continuing to trend in the right direction, going 2-0-1 last week. We were just one late Rutgers touchdown away from a perfect sweep. We now sit at a nice 18-13-1 for the season. This weekend, we’ve got 5 games on the slate, and interestingly enough, all five are favorites. I usually avoid picking this many favorites, but these matchups really stood out to me. After digging into even more research than usual (because too many favorites does make me cautious), I’m feeling very confident about these picks.
As for our ATS (Against the Spread) weekly alerts, five teams remain perfect ATS this season: BYU, Pitt, Army, Eastern Michigan, and Marshall. Meanwhile, five teams still haven’t covered the spread this season: North Carolina State, Kent State, Kansas, North Carolina, and Air Force. We’re banking on one of these streaks continuing—read below to find out which team we’re backing!
Northwestern at Maryland (-10) (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Every season, there are always a few teams that catch my eye for betting, and this year the Terrapins are one of them. While Maryland has had its ups and downs for us, I really like the spot they’re in this weekend. For starters, Maryland leads the NCAA in turnover margin, averaging 3.3 turnovers per game, which is a huge advantage. Their offense is also top 30, and I continue to be impressed with quarterback Billy Edwards’ consistency.
But the real reason I’m backing Maryland is Northwestern’s struggles. The Wildcats have only two wins—one against a 1-4 Miami (OH) team and another over FCS Eastern Illinois. They rank 123rd in yards per game and have a subpar defense. Heading to College Park for a Friday night showdown against a well-rested Maryland team coming off a bye won’t be an easy task. I expect the Terrapins to control the game and win comfortably.
The Pick: Maryland -10
Utah (-4) at Arizona State
This game poses a bit of uncertainty due to the status of Cam Rising. Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson put up a solid effort against Arizona two weeks ago, throwing for 280 yards, but came up short. He’s capable of leading Utah’s offense if necessary. That said, all signs point to Rising recovering from his dislocated finger, and the bye week likely helped his healing process. If he plays, Utah should comfortably cover the spread. Even if Rising doesn’t suit up, I still trust Utah’s top-20 defense to handle the Sun Devils, who may be 4-1, but their record is misleading. Their four victories have come against teams with a combined 6-15 record, three of which only have one win each. Under Kyle Whittingham, Utah is a disciplined squad, ranking 4th in the nation with under 4 penalties per game. They’ll play smart, control the tempo, and cover in this Friday night Big 12 showdown.
The Pick: Utah -4
Missouri (-27.5) at UMass
This game is pretty straightforward. While UMass has made some improvements, they are still a very bad team. Offensively, they rank near the bottom, averaging only 16 points per game. Missouri, meanwhile, comes into this game angry after being embarrassed in College Station last weekend. While they may not have been deserving of their previous top-10 ranking, they are clearly the more talented team in this matchup. They could cover the spread by halftime. Missouri’s top 25 defense, should easily stifle UMass, who will struggle to move the ball. Expect Missouri to win big as they bounce back from last week’s disappointment.
The Pick: Missouri -27.5
California at Pittsburgh (-3)
Pitt QB Eli Holstein is quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch. He’s gritty, highly skilled, and has complete control of this explosive Panther offense. Pitt ranks 9th in total yards and is putting up nearly 40 points per game. They’re hosting a California team that just blew a big lead at home to Miami in a heartbreaking loss. Now, the Golden Bears have to travel across the country for this ACC showdown, likely feeling the effects of last week’s collapse. To make matters worse for Cal, they rank near the bottom in the nation in penalties, committing almost 10 per game. Pitt, undefeated both on the field and against the spread, is in a great position to keep both streaks alive on Saturday.
The Pick: Pittsburgh -3
Florida at Tennessee (-15.5)
I’m not sure what team showed up in Fayetteville last Saturday, but it certainly wasn’t the top 5 Tennessee Volunteers we’ve seen all season. Their offense looked downright awful, which is shocking given they still rank 15th in total yards and 11th in points per game. While I did predict that upset—it was a tough spot for Tennessee against a fired-up home crowd and a determined Razorback team—the Volunteers are back in the comfort of Neyland Stadium this week, and I expect a strong rebound. They face a struggling Florida Gators team that ranks 84th in total yards and 109th in yards allowed. With Tennessee’s offense recharged and their defense still ranked second in the nation, the Gators don’t stand a chance. Expect Tennessee to win in a blowout—give the points.
The Pick: Tennessee -15.5
