Bierman’s Best Bets: CFP Championship & Divisional Round NFL Playoffs
This week, we’re rolling our college and pro picks into one since there are only five games on the board. It’s Divisional Round weekend in the NFL Playoffs, and we’re also breaking down and predicting the CFP National Championship.
Our picks have been strong across the board this season as we’re sitting at 36-20-1 in the NFL and 27-18 during bowl season.
Soak it all in, Sandman Nation – football season is winding down, but there’s still time to enjoy the action and make the most of it. Let’s finish strong!
Texans (+7.5) at Chiefs (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
On last week’s podcast, I confidently predicted that the Chiefs would not make it back to the Super Bowl this year. I still stand by that prediction, though I expected them to be facing the Chargers in this game, which would have made an upset feel more plausible. That said, the Texans impressed me on Saturday, particularly with how their defense stepped up. They confused Chargers QB Justin Herbert, forcing him into four interceptions. WR Nico Collins continues to emerge as a superstar, and while QB C.J. Stroud hasn’t matched his stellar rookie year, this is still an extremely talented signal caller, and he gets much needed help from RB Joe Mixon who continues to grind out tough yards on the ground.
I’ve been skeptical of the Chiefs all season, and it’s still a mystery how this team managed to finish 15-2. Their defense, ranked in the top 10, has been solid, but their offense is shockingly average. Sitting at 16th in the league, they average just 22 points and 328 yards per game. While future Hall of Famers Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain elite, the Chiefs are hampered by injuries and a lackluster running game, plus they no longer have a true standout wide receiver.
Adding to my doubts, the Chiefs’ starters haven’t played meaningful minutes in nearly three weeks. While the rest might help them heal, it could also lead to rust. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense, ranked third in the league, has been dominant, and I expect them to bring the pressure this weekend. While the Texans might not pull off the upset, I love them to keep it close. We’re rolling with Houston and the points.
The Pick: Texans +7.5
Commanders (+10) at Lions
This matchup is a tough call for me because I’ve been singing the praises of both teams all season. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is putting together one of the most spectacular rookie campaigns by a quarterback in recent memory. He’s electric, exciting to watch, and seems to bring a touch of magic to this team. After their dramatic last-second field goal win in Tampa Bay, the Commanders have momentum on their side, while the Lions come in fresh off a bye. While the extra rest is great for healing, it can sometimes lead to a bit of rust.
That said, the Lions are arguably the most talented team in the NFL, especially on offense. Head coach Dan Campbell hinted that RB David Montgomery could return this week, which would make this already-dangerous offense even more formidable. Even if Montgomery isn’t ready, Jamyr Gibbs has firmly established himself as a top-5 running back, consistently keeping the chains moving. Through the air, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta form a lethal trio, and QB Jared Goff has been delivering at a high level all season. While their defense is below average in terms of yardage allowed, they’ve shown a knack for stepping up in key moments.
I expect Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to keep it competitive early, and this is certainly a lot of points to lay in a playoff game. While I believe there’s something special about this Lions team and have predicted them to win the Lombardi Trophy this year, this is one of my least confident picks of the season. I could see it going either way. Ultimately, I think the Lions will prevail, but a late backdoor cover by the Commanders could keep the final score within the spread. So, we’ll take the Commanders plus the points, but we don’t love it.
The Pick: Commanders +10
Ravens at Bills (+1)
Man, I wish this was the Conference Championship game – what a matchup this is going to be! Let’s start with Baltimore, home to the NFL’s #1 offense and the likely 2024 MVP, Lamar Jackson. Jackson has taken his game to new heights this season, evolving into a more poised and efficient passer, which is a terrifying complement to his elite running ability. RB Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time, and while WR Zay Flowers’ health is a question mark, this team still boasts plenty of weapons. TE Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are key contributors in the passing game, and Baltimore’s defense, ranked in the top 10, remains a nightmare to face, as they showed Saturday by sacking Steelers QB Russell Wilson four times and keeping him under constant pressure.
But this Buffalo offense is on another level compared to Pittsburgh. Josh Allen is right up there with Lamar in the MVP conversation, and his ability to dominate through the air or with his legs makes him one of the league’s most dangerous players. What sets this offense apart, though, is RB James Cook. He’s relentless, rarely goes down on first contact, and can explode for huge gains if given even the slightest opening. Meanwhile, WR Khalil Shakir has blossomed into a legitimate #1 receiver, coming up with several clutch catches on Sunday.
This game is going to be an absolute blast to watch and feels like it could go either way. That said, I like Buffalo’s chances at home. This feels like the year the Bills make their long-awaited Super Bowl run. So, give me Josh Allen and the Bills to get it done.
The Pick: Bills +1
Rams at Eagles (-6)
Despite facing tough circumstances – playing a home playoff game 400 miles away and dealing with the emotional weight of wildfires affecting their city – the Rams delivered a commanding win over the Vikings on Monday night. Now, they head across the country to face Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Rams have exceeded all expectations this season, earning the NFC West crown despite being overlooked in the preseason. Matthew Stafford continues to defy age, leading an offense that can score quickly with a deep arsenal of weapons. However, their defense remains a concern. While they held the Vikings to just nine points, this is the same unit that ranked near the bottom of the league during the regular season, allowing an average of 350 yards per game. That level of play won’t cut it against the Eagles.
Philadelphia boasts one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, led by Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and AJ Brown. Combine that firepower with the league’s top-ranked defense, and the Eagles are a complete team primed for a deep postseason run.
I can’t shake the feeling that we’re heading toward an Eagles vs. Lions NFC Championship showdown. As impressive as the Rams have been, I’m confident the Eagles will hold serve at home and cover the spread, winning by at least a touchdown.
The Pick: Eagles -6
CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
Monday, January 20th at 7:30 PM
Atlanta, GA
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame (+8.5)
I barely missed on both semifinal predictions, and it still stings! I had Penn State covering against Notre Dame, but the Irish pulled off a dramatic 27-24 win. The comeback was led by quarterback Riley Leonard, who returned from concussion protocol to deliver some late-game heroics. Meanwhile, a critical interception thrown by Penn State’s Drew Allar sealed their fate. With the win, Notre Dame now has a chance to claim their first national championship since 1988.
In the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State continued their dominant postseason run, edging out a scrappy Texas team. Texas seemed poised to tie the game late, but a game-clinching pick-six by defensive end Jack Sawyer shut the door, giving Ohio State a 28-14 victory. Once again, the Buckeyes’ elite red zone defense proved to be the difference-maker.
Now, these two historic programs, Ohio State and Notre Dame, are set to meet in the national championship. It’s only the seventh matchup between them, and shockingly, the Irish are 0-6 in their previous meetings with the Buckeyes. That streak looks like it will stay intact.
Ohio State has been nothing short of phenomenal this postseason. Against Tennessee and Oregon, their offense was unstoppable, putting up more than 40 points in each game. On the other hand, they proved they can win defensively too, holding Texas to just 14 points. Quarterback Will Howard looks completely in control of the offense, shaking off the struggles from the Michigan game weeks ago.
But don’t count out Notre Dame. Despite trailing 10-0 and looking outmatched early against Penn State, they clawed their way back and capitalized on every opportunity. Riley Leonard has shown tremendous growth as a leader this season, and head coach Marcus Freeman has firmly established himself as one of the best in the nation.
This championship showdown features two teams with top-10 offenses and defenses – what more could you ask for? While I think Ohio State is the more complete team and will ultimately win, this game should come down to the fourth quarter. With the spread as it is, I like Notre Dame to keep it close and cover. Let’s roll with the Irish and the points.
The Pick: Notre Dame +8.5
