Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 11
It was a middling week for Bierman’s College Football Best Bets, finishing 3-3, but we’re still above .500 for the season and feeling good about this week’s trends. We’re backing solid teams against weaker opponents, giving points in most cases where the lines look very manageable. In our lone underdog pick, we’re going with a home team in a heated rivalry matchup. It’s hard to believe we’re already at Week 11, with the CFP and bowl season just around the corner. Enjoy the games and the action, Sandman Nation!
Liberty (-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Two weeks ago, the Flames were cruising at 5-0 and even had an outside shot at the CFP playoffs. But since then, they’ve dropped back-to-back games to an 0-7 Kennesaw State and Rich Rodriguez’s Jacksonville State. Jamey Chadwell’s team has looked off recently, but despite these setbacks, I like the Flames to rebound this week with a decisive win over a struggling Middle Tennessee squad. The Blue Raiders sit at 3-6, with their only wins against Kennesaw State, a 1-7 UTEP, and FCS Tennessee Tech in week 1. They’re ranked 129th in points scored and 97th in yards gained, while their defense ranks a dismal 123rd, giving up 463 yards per game. Liberty still boasts a top 40 offense and a top 45 defense, so they should have no problem containing Middle Tennessee. This line looks too light for the matchup, so give me the Flames and the points and I’ll gladly lay the points with confidence.
The Pick: Liberty -10.5
UCONN (-6) at UAB
On last week’s Enter Sandman Sports podcast, I highlighted some well-known coaches who are finding success at smaller schools. One standout is former UCLA coach Jim Mora, who’s starting to turn things around in Storrs. After a 3-9 season last year, he now has the Huskies sitting at 6-3 and already eligible for a bowl game. UConn’s offense is solid, but it’s their defense—ranked in the top 40 and allowing just 335 yards per game—that’s driving this team forward. They’re up against a struggling 3-6 UAB squad with a mediocre offense, a poor defense that gives up 425 yards per game, and discipline issues, averaging almost nine penalties per game and over a -1 turnover differential. Mora’s Huskies are sneakily good, and with this line under a touchdown, I’m all in on giving the points.
The Pick: UCONN -6
Georgia State at James Madison (-17)
We’re staying outside the Power 4 conferences and backing another strong team against a struggling one. This week, it’s the 6-2 James Madison Dukes, who bring a top 10 scoring offense and a top 30 defense to the table. They’ve been impressively disciplined, committing less than one turnover per game while forcing over three from their opponents. The Dukes face a 2-6 Georgia State team that, despite their surprising win over Vanderbilt in Week 3, has spiraled with five straight losses since. The Panthers average just 22 points per game, and their defense leaks over 425 yards per contest. Expect the Dukes to dominate at home—give the points with confidence.
The Pick: James Madison -17
Duke at NC State (-3)
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Blue Devils have dropped their last two games and three of their last four, while the Wolfpack come in with back-to-back wins. Despite a modest 5-4 record, NC State hasn’t lost to any team with a losing record, and their opponents’ combined record sits at an impressive 23-9. Both teams are evenly matched in offensive and defensive efficiency, making this under-the-radar rivalry game even more intriguing. In the last three matchups, the home team has covered, so I’m taking the Wolfpack, riding the momentum, to win and cover with this small spread.
The Pick: NC State -3
Mississippi State at Tennessee (-23.5)
Despite Tennessee’s stumble on the road at Arkansas a few weeks back and an offense that’s cooled slightly since outscoring their first three opponents 191-13, this 7-1 team is still on track for a CFP spot. I’m not concerned about their offense, particularly against a Bulldogs defense allowing a whopping 483 yards per game. What really stands out, though, is Tennessee’s defense, currently ranked #1 in the nation for fewest yards allowed. Facing a so-so Bulldogs offense, the Vols should coast comfortably in Neyland. The spread may be large, but I expect Tennessee to cover it with ease.
The Pick: Tennessee -23.5
BYU at Utah (+4.5)
This might seem like an unusual pick given Utah’s recent struggles on offense without Cam Rising, averaging under 20 points and dropping their last four games. Meanwhile, BYU has shocked the college football world, sitting undefeated at 8-0 atop the Big 12 and pushing for a CFP spot as the #4 seed. However, Utah still boasts a solid defense, and let’s not forget – this is the “Holy War.” Kyle Whittingham will have his team fired up, ready to rise to the challenge despite recent setbacks. A home underdog in a heated rivalry, with a wild crowd behind them? I’ll take the Utes and the points.
The Pick: Utah +4.5
