Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 14
Well, Sandman Nation, our winning streak came to an end with a 2-3 record last week. But no worries – we’re still solid for the season, and I couldn’t be more excited about this week’s picks. Honestly, this might be my favorite lineup of the year when looking at the slate as a whole.
In fact, I’m so pumped about these games that we’re upping the usual five-game slate to seven as there are just too many enticing matchups to pass up. And with it being rivalry week, you know it’s going to be packed with drama and excitement.
Happy Thanksgiving, Sandman Nation! All of us at Sandman Sports are grateful for your support, and we hope you have an incredible holiday filled with food, family, and football! Let’s cash those tickets!
Memphis (+14) at Tulane
I’ve said it before on our podcast and here: sometimes there are lines that seem too good to be true, and usually, it’s best to avoid them. But after digging into this one, I can’t find a reason to steer clear of the Tigers. Memphis boasts a top-10 offense, averaging 450 yards per game, and their defense, while not elite, is solid enough to handle Tulane. The Green Wave is a strong team with both a top-30 offense and defense, and they have the home-field advantage. But two touchdowns? That feels like way too many. I’ll take Memphis and the points all day.
The Pick: Memphis +14
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-26.5)
This one feels pretty straightforward. Ole Miss, fresh off a disappointing loss to Florida, will come out fired up and ready to dominate their rivals. Unfortunately for Mississippi State, they just don’t have the firepower to keep up. The Rebels boast the #2 offense in the nation, averaging 35 points and 510 yards per game, and they’re facing one of the worst defenses around – Mississippi State is allowing nearly 500 yards per game. On the flip side, Ole Miss’s defense is solid enough to stifle the Bulldogs’ pedestrian offense. This is a classic matchup of a powerhouse team against an overmatched opponent, and we’ve been cashing in on these all season. Lay the points and ride with the Rebels.
The Pick: Ole Miss -26.5
Michigan at Ohio State (-20.5)
This one hurts to write and might leave me needing therapy, but my loyalty to Sandman Nation and the pursuit of profit demands honesty. Even in the most heated rivalry in college football, I just don’t see Michigan keeping pace here. Ohio State brings the #5 scoring offense, averaging 38 points per game, paired with the #1 overall defense, allowing just 11 points and 240 yards per contest. If you’ve watched even a few minutes of Michigan football this year, it’s clear they’ll struggle to move the ball against a defense this elite.
Sure, Michigan lit up Northwestern for 50 points last week, but let’s be real – this isn’t Northwestern. While Michigan’s defense remains solid, the Buckeyes, playing at home with three years of pent-up frustration, are going to make a statement. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, that statement won’t be close. Take Ohio State and lay the points – they’ll be rolling in the Shoe.
The Pick: Ohio State -20.5
Tennessee (-10.5) at Vanderbilt
Last week, I mentioned that Louisiana giving just 11.5 points to Troy felt like an early Christmas gift – and it seems the holiday spirit is still alive because I absolutely love this game too. Yes, Vanderbilt was the early Cinderella story of the season with their shocking upset of Alabama, and they’re headed to a bowl game which is nice, but this matchup feels like a runaway for Tennessee.
The Vols still have a legitimate shot at the CFP and a convincing win here will help their chances. They have a massive advantage on both sides of the ball, boasting a top-30 offense and a top-10 defense. Vandy, despite their feel-good story, has one of the weaker offenses in the country and a below-average defense. While the Commodores excel at ball security with only six turnovers all season, and Tennessee’s discipline issues (8 penalties per game) are a slight concern, the bottom line is clear: the shine has worn off Vanderbilt, the Vols are fighting for their postseason lives, and they’re going to dominate this game by multiple touchdowns. Lay the points with Tennessee.
The Pick: Tennessee -10.5
California (+13.5) at SMU
While I was born and have my roots in Michigan, I spent a few years in Dallas and vividly remember the days of the Pony Express with Craig James and Eric Dickerson – and, unfortunately, the infamous Death Penalty that shut down SMU’s program for two years. That’s why it’s been incredible to see the Mustangs thriving this season, with a real chance to win out and make the CFP in their first year as a member of the ACC.
That said, the Cal Golden Bears have quietly put together a solid season of their own and are bowl-bound. While SMU’s record is far superior, their offensive and defensive stats are surprisingly close to Cal’s. With the ACC Championship game looming, I could see SMU looking ahead just enough to keep this game tighter than expected. I think the Mustangs win, but the spread feels too big. I’ll confidently take the Bears and the points.
The Pick: California +13.5
Oklahoma at LSU (-6.5)
Oklahoma deserves credit for their big win against Alabama so hats off to the Sooners. That said, they still field one of the worst offenses in the nation, and I can’t see them generating enough production in Death Valley to keep this game competitive. LSU has been wildly inconsistent this season, making them hard to predict, but their offense remains potent, and their defense should smother Oklahoma’s struggling attack. This feels like an easy spot for the Tigers to win by more than a touchdown, so I’ll gladly lay the points.
The Pick: LSU -6.5
Houston at BYU (-12)
It’s a Cougar showdown! We’ve had plenty of success betting against Houston this season, and we’re sticking with that trend. While I’m not fully sold on BYU – they’ve shown some cracks with back-to-back losses – they’re clearly the better team in this matchup, and this line feels too small. Houston’s offense is abysmal and will struggle mightily against BYU’s strong defense. While Houston’s defense is respectable, BYU is playing with a chip on their shoulder and will be eager to bounce back. Expect the Mormon Cougars to dominate in Provo and cover comfortably.
The Pick: BYU -12
