Bierman’s Best Bets – College Football Week 9
First, how are we already to week 9? Wow! Well, we had a solid 4-2 record last week, bringing our season total to 23-19-1. Interestingly, there’s a unique trend this week: six of my seven picks are road teams, and five of them are underdogs. But the common thread? I feel confident in every one of these selections! Enjoy the action, Sandman Nation!
Syracuse (+5.5) at Pittsburgh (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Outside of Indiana, Pittsburgh has quickly become one of my favorite teams to watch this season. QB Eli Holstein continues to fly under the radar, leading the 20th-ranked offense that’s churning out nearly 450 yards per game. Meanwhile, Syracuse has been impressive in their own right, boasting a top-15 offense and growing in confidence each week under Ohio State transfer QB Kyle McCord. Defensively, neither team stands out, making this matchup feel like a true toss-up. With two evenly matched squads, I love getting the 5.5 points—give me the Orange to cover.
The Pick: Syracuse +5.5
Notre Dame (-12.5) at Navy
It’s been a joy to watch Army and Navy shine this season, collectively boasting an impressive 13-0 record. The last time both teams had such stellar seasons was back in 1996, when Army finished 10-2 and Navy went 9-3. Both teams could surpass those marks this year. However, I see Navy facing a tough challenge this week against Notre Dame, and I expect the Fighting Irish to win decisively.
Despite one of the most remarkable stats of the season—Navy has yet to commit a turnover—and an offense that ranks in the top 30, racking up 436 yards and 44 points per game, I think Notre Dame will be too much for them. Notre Dame’s offense has been inconsistent, but QB Riley Leonard seems to be finding his rhythm, as seen in their recent win over Georgia Tech. However, it’s their top-10 defense that should really make the difference. Once they adjust to Navy’s unique offense, I anticipate Notre Dame pulling away, and I don’t think Navy will be able to mount a serious comeback. While it would be great to see Navy win, I just can’t see them keeping it within two touchdowns. Take the Irish and give the points.
The Pick: Notre Dame -12.5
Texas Tech (+6.5) at TCU
This matchup features two teams that have been frustratingly inconsistent this season, yet are quite evenly matched. Texas Tech is coming off a brutal blowout loss at home to an average Baylor team, but their offense still packs a punch, averaging nearly 450 yards per game. On the other side, TCU is fresh off a solid road win against Utah, though that victory came right after a rough loss to Houston. Nothing really stands out about TCU except their knack for turning the ball over, averaging 2.5 giveaways per game.
While neither team is particularly strong, I’m leaning toward the side getting the points. Texas Tech should be able to keep it close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off the upset. Give me the Red Raiders and the points.
The Pick: Texas Tech +6.5
New Mexico (+6.5) at Colorado State
The New Mexico Lobos are a team with extreme highs and lows. Offensively, they shine, ranking 6th in the nation with nearly 500 yards per game. But defensively, it’s a different story—they’re giving up a staggering 488 yards per game. Even more troubling, they rank last in penalties, averaging over 11 per contest. Colorado State isn’t exactly a powerhouse either, with three of their four wins coming against 1-6 teams like Northern Colorado, UTEP, and Air Force.
New Mexico is on a 3-game winning streak, and new coach Bronco Mendenhall has injected fresh energy into the team. Though both teams are fairly evenly matched, neither stands out as exceptional, but I like the Lobos getting points in this one.
BONUS TIP: I’m not making it an official best bet because I’m not a big over-under guy, but I don’t know how the over 65.5 doesn’t hit in this game.
The Pick: New Mexico +6.5
Louisiana-Monroe (+8.5) at South Alabama
Last week, I highlighted the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns as one of my best bets, and they didn’t disappoint, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. This week, I’m turning my attention to the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe. Sitting at 5-1 overall (and also 5-1 ATS), their only loss came against Texas in Week 3. Their offense has struggled, ranking near the bottom, but their top-40 defense keeps them competitive in games. On the other side, South Alabama has one of the nation’s worst defenses, allowing 433 yards per game, which should give the Warhawks some opportunities to move the ball. The Jaguars, coming off a win over a weak Troy team, do protect the ball well with only 3 turnovers all season, but I believe the Warhawks are getting too many points here. Once again, I’m sticking with a team from the Pelican State, so give me Louisiana-Monroe plus the points!
The Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +8.5
Utah (-3) at Houston
Utah has been one of the more underwhelming teams this season, coming off a lackluster home loss to TCU and officially losing QB Cam Rising for the year. However, if you’ve been following my picks, you know how much I love betting against the Houston Cougars. Houston’s offense has been abysmal, managing just 302 yards and 14 points per game. Despite Utah’s setbacks, they still boast a top-30 defense and play with great discipline under Kyle Whittingham, committing only 4.2 penalties per game. On the other hand, Houston continues to shoot themselves in the foot, averaging two turnovers per game. All signs point to another tough day for the Cougars, so I’m confidently taking the Utes as a small road favorite.
The Pick: Utah -3
Penn State at Wisconsin (+6.5)
Coach Luke Fickell’s tenure at Wisconsin hasn’t been as smooth as expected in his first two years, but he’s quietly building the team he envisions. The Badgers are 5-2 and riding a 3-game winning streak, where they’ve outscored opponents 122-16. Their offense is sneakily explosive, and their defense remains rock-solid, ranking in the top 15. Enter the powerhouse Penn State Nittany Lions, who may just be the best team in the country. With a top-5 defense and a top-10 offense, Penn State has handled every opponent they’ve faced. However, this feels like too many points to lay against a disciplined Wisconsin team at home, especially with Penn State potentially looking ahead to their huge matchup against Ohio State next week. In this tricky spot, I like the Badgers to cover in front of a raucous home crowd.
The Pick: Wisconsin +6.5
