Bierman’s Best Bets – NFL Week 11
After a few strong weeks, we hit a bit of a bump, going 1-2, but we’re still above water for the season at 16-13. This week, there weren’t many standout games, but I’m leaning toward three small favorites that I feel confident about. Two of these matchups are not only great games but also crucial for playoff positioning. Enjoy another exciting weekend of games, Sandman Nation!
Ravens (-3) at Steelers (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
I continue to have doubts about the Steelers this season, even with their 7-2 record leading the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Ravens, despite a couple of hiccups, look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I like Baltimore giving only a field goal here, especially against a Pittsburgh team that barely escaped DC with a win over the Commanders. With the league’s top offense in yards per game, Baltimore should have no trouble finding ways to score, even against a solid Steeler defense. I fully expect Lamar Jackson and crew to roll here, notching a decisive victory in this critical divisional matchup.
The Pick: Ravens -3
Browns at Saints (-1.5)
Here’s the main reason I’m backing the Saints here: the Browns are bad – especially on offense. They rank 31st in the league in total yards, barely managing 270 yards per game. While the Saints are no juggernaut, having Derek Carr back under center is a stabilizing factor, and they’re riding a bit of momentum after a solid win over the Falcons. The Browns are a total mess right now, even with the change to Jameis Winston at QB, and I don’t trust them to keep this contest close. I’ll confidently take the Saints at home in the Superdome, giving up a line that feels way too small.
The Pick: Saints -1.5
Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)
Oh this is going to be a fun one! The Chiefs managed to escape with their unbeaten record intact after a last-second blocked field goal against a feisty Denver team. But as I’ve said in past picks, this isn’t quite the unstoppable Chiefs team we’re used to, despite the undefeated record and Travis Kelce starting to find his groove. On the other hand, I believe the Bills are currently the best team in the AFC. They’ve won five straight, with their only two losses coming on the road against Baltimore and Houston. Now, the Chiefs head into Orchard Park in what could easily be a preview of the AFC Championship. The line being under a field goal is all I need to see—give me the Bills and lay the points.
The Pick: Bills -2.5
