Bierman’s Best Bets – NFL Week 14
Well, Sandman Nation, our all-Thanksgiving Day slate last week delivered in a big way, as we went a perfect 3-0! That pushes us to 22-16 on the season. This week, we’ve got three more picks we love, including two underdogs, with one of them at home. Let’s keep the momentum rolling!
Falcons (+4.5) at Vikings (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Falcons have been a frustrating enigma this season, stumbling to a 6-6 record. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are sitting pretty at 10-2, firing on all cylinders as they push toward the playoffs. While Kirk Cousins has been inconsistent recently, he’s still steering a top-10 offense. That said, Minnesota’s impressive record doesn’t fully align with their statistical performance – they’re fairly average in most offensive and defensive metrics.
Though December games in the North are typically tough for southern teams, the indoor setting neutralizes the weather factor. With these teams being more evenly matched than their records suggest, getting this many points with the Falcons feels like a gift. Take Atlanta, grab the points, and let’s fly high with the Dirty Birds!
The Pick: Falcons +4.5
Bills at Rams (+4.5)
The Bills have been nothing short of dominant this season, riding a seven-game winning streak and fresh off a dismantling of the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Rams have been the definition of mediocre at 6-6, but they’re finally getting healthy and still have a shot at the NFC West, which keeps their playoff hopes alive.
Statistically, the Bills hold the edge in most categories, but a cross-country trip to Los Angeles levels the playing field a bit. The Rams are at home, fighting for their season, and getting this many points as a home underdog is hard to pass up. I’ll roll with Stafford and the Rams to cover at SoFi.
The Pick: Rams +4.5
Bears at 49ers (-5.5)
I haven’t checked officially, but it feels like I’ve included more Bears games in my NFL Best Bets this season than any other team. Sometimes we back them, like last week when they covered against the Lions, but more often, we fade them. And we’re fading them here again.
Yes, they fired head coach Matt Eberflus after his Thanksgiving clock management disaster, but that doesn’t fix the mess on the field. The Bears rank in the bottom ten in both offense and defense, and a cross-country trip to face a 49ers team hungry for redemption doesn’t bode well.
San Francisco may be a disappointing 5-7 after last year’s Super Bowl run, but they still boast a top-10 offense and defense in key metrics. Even if McCaffrey doesn’t suit up (currently doubtful), I like the Niners to roll. We’ll gladly give the points here.
The Pick: 49ers -5.5
