We had a solid 2–1 week, but I’m still annoyed by the Rams game. Not only were they in control deep in the fourth quarter, but we played them at -1.5 and the line actually closed at +1.5, which would have flipped that into a win. It’s a frustrating reminder of how important every single point, and even half-point, can be over the long run.

I was comfortable laying the -1.5 at the time, and you never know how a number will move. But if your gut tells you there’s a chance it shifts in your favor and you’re comfortable waiting, sometimes it’s worth taking that risk to grab an extra edge. Those little advantages add up over a season.

With that out of the way, let’s get into this week’s slate. We’re officially in crunch time, with playoff spots, positioning, and seeding all hanging in the balance. All three of our games this week feature teams either already in the postseason or fighting to get there, which is exactly the kind of board I love to bet this time of year.

Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 26-22

Seahawks @ Panthers (+7.5)

I faded the Seahawks last week against the Rams, and in what might end up being the game of the year, they proved me wrong. Seattle rallied from a 16-point deficit late, pulled out an overtime win, and now sits at 12-3 with control of its own destiny for the NFC’s top seed.

That said, that game took a lot out of them. Sam Darnold was excellent when it mattered most, but he also looked shaky for stretches, and now Seattle has to turn around and travel cross-country to face a feisty Panthers team that is also sitting atop its division and knows it has to keep winning to hold off Tampa Bay.

While the Seahawks deserve credit for beating the Rams and their defense is unquestionably legit, I am still not fully sold on this roster from top to bottom. They barely squeaked by the Colts two weeks ago, needed a miracle against the Rams, and simply do not have an impressive list of wins against teams with winning records this season.

Carolina is not a juggernaut, but they play better at home and are coming off their own big comeback win against the Buccaneers. The offense has been inconsistent, but they have improved in the past few weeks. Bryce Young may never be a superstar, but he is getting better each game and has shown he can competently lead this team. The Panthers also boast a top-ten rushing attack, which could be tested by Seattle’s strong run defense, but it could open up the passing game and we just saw what Matthew Stafford was able to do through the air. Young and rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan will not replicate that level of production, but they do not need to. They just need to score enough to stay within striking distance.

Getting a full seven points at home with a quality playoff-caliber Panthers team, against a Seattle squad coming off an emotional overtime win and facing a brutal travel spot, is simply too much. This is a tough number for the Seahawks to cover, and we love Carolina getting the touchdown and a hook here.

The Pick: Panthers +7.5

Patriots @ Jets (+13.5) 

Yes, the Jets are bad. They’ve lost five of their last six games, and every one of those losses came by double digits. But context matters. Four of those five losses were on the road, and this is simply a big number for a home underdog in the NFL.

I also like that rookie quarterback Brady Cook now has another start under his belt. We’ve seen plenty of young quarterbacks struggle early, then settle in enough to be functional, Tyler Shough in New Orleans being a recent example. The Jets also quietly own a top-10 rushing offense, and defensively their strength is actually against the pass, which matters against a Patriots team that thrives through Drake Maye.

New England is clearly the better team. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games and should win this one as well, powered by Maye, TreyVeon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, and a seventh-ranked defense. But this is their second straight road game, coming off a gritty, emotional comeback win in Baltimore. Divisional road games like this rarely come easy.

This is a classic NFL spot I’ve leaned into in the past with success. Double-digit home underdogs in division games are often undervalued. The Jets don’t need to be good here, they just need to compete.

We fully expect the Patriots to win, but we like the Jets to keep this closer than the number suggests and cover at home.

Pick: Jets +13.5

Bears @ 49ers (-3)

Sometimes we like to go back to the well, and this week we’re doing exactly that with the 49ers.

Last week we had San Francisco at -6 in Indianapolis, calling out the Colts’ awful pass defense. Brock Purdy made that look easy, throwing for 295 yards and five touchdowns. Cash.

Chicago is not quite as bad through the air as Indy, but they are still below average, ranking 19th against the pass. Meanwhile, the 49ers have won five of their last six games, and every one of those wins has come by double digits.

I actually wrote in this week’s Six Pack that the Bears, under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, have been one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL. Johnson has been excellent, the Bears have already clinched a playoff spot, and incredibly they are still in the mix for the NFC’s top seed. Caleb Williams has taken a clear step forward in Year 2, and Chicago now owns the fifth-ranked offense in the league by total yards.

That said, the defense is still a problem. Chicago remains a bottom-ten unit on that side of the ball, and that is not a great recipe against a San Francisco team that feels like a legitimate Super Bowl threat. Even sitting third in what is arguably the league’s toughest division, the 49ers are rounding into form at the right time.

Now they return home, still fighting for playoff positioning, with momentum clearly on their side. The Bears are a great story, but six of their wins this season have come after trailing with two minutes or less remaining. That is living on the edge, and eventually that magic runs out. Add in a long trip west, and asking them to stay within three points here feels like a tall order.

We’ll lay the small number and ride San Francisco again.

The Pick: 49ers -3

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