Bierman’s Best Bets – NFL Week 18
Sandman Nation, we did it again – another 3-0 week, bringing our season record to an impressive 32-18-1. This week is notoriously the hardest to predict in the NFL, with so many teams playing in games that don’t impact their standings. But don’t worry as we’ve found a few matchups we feel great about and are ready to keep the momentum rolling into the postseason. Enjoy the final week of the regular season and gear up for what promises to be a wild, unpredictable playoff run. Let’s finish strong!
Bengals (-3) at Steelers (*All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook)
For the third straight week, I’m backing my hometown Bengals, and once again, I feel great about it. Like last week against the Broncos, they’re laying just a field goal—this time on the road in Pittsburgh. Honestly, that could work in their favor, as the Bengals have thrived on the road this season.
This game is do-or-die for Cincinnati’s playoff hopes, and I fully expect them to rise to the occasion. Joe Burrow is delivering an MVP-caliber season, and while their defense, criticized heavily earlier in the year, still isn’t elite, it’s doing enough to secure wins.
Pittsburgh is also fighting for the AFC crown so they aren’t going to roll over in this game. With that said, the Bengals are the team no one wants to face in the postseason, and while I don’t think the Broncos will lose (which would keep Cincy out of the playoffs), I’m confident Burrow and this explosive offense will roll to a convincing victory in the Steel City.
The Pick: Bengals -3
Bears (+9.5) at Packers
I can’t believe I’m backing the Bears here, but this is one of the few games this week that seems to offer any value. The Packers were flat-out awful against the Vikings last week, and while they’re already locked into the playoffs, Matt LaFleur has said he plans to play his starters. I expect that’ll last for a half before he pulls the key players to avoid unnecessary risks.
The Bears, meanwhile, have been a train wreck since their 4-2 start, but they haven’t completely folded. With young players like QB Caleb Williams and WR Rome Odunze looking to prove themselves, I think they’ll show enough fight to keep this game close. Green Bay has nothing to gain, and Chicago should take advantage of that, covering the spread in what could be an ugly but competitive game.
The Pick: Bears +9.5
Vikings at Lions (-3)
As impressive as the Vikings have been this season, the Lions remain my pick to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. This game carries massive implications, as it will decide the NFC title and the #1 overall seed. Win, and you secure a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Lose, and you drop to the #5 seed and face a road game in the Wild Card round.
With so much on the line, I can’t see the Lions letting this slip away. Not only do I think they’ll win, but I expect them to cover comfortably. Detroit boasts the league’s #2 offense, and while the Vikings’ defense has been respectable, I see Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the rest of this explosive unit putting on a clinic.
Defensively, the Lions may not be elite, but they’ve shown they can pressure opposing quarterbacks and create turnovers. I expect Sam Darnold to struggle against their schemes, leading to some critical mistakes. Coach Dan Campbell has done an outstanding job with this team, and you can bet he’ll have them prepared and fired up.
At home in the electric atmosphere of Ford Field, I love the Lions in this spot. We’ll confidently lay the field goal and back Detroit to take care of business.
The Pick: Lions -3
