While we will most likely still make some playoff picks and predictions, we’ve reached the end of our weekly NFL Best Bets series for 2025. We didn’t perform nearly as well as last season, when we hit 64% of our picks, but at worst we’ll finish right at .500 and could end as high as 55.5%. So certainly not a terrible season of prognostication.

The final week is always tricky and has some parallels to college bowl season, because identifying where the motivation lies for each team becomes crucial. Every game selected this week features at least one team still fighting for something, and you’ll notice we’re going back to one of our favorite teams once again, counting on them to cash for us one more time.

Happy New Year to everyone, and may 2026 be the happiest and healthiest year yet for you and your loved ones. And may all your bets cash. Now let’s get into it.

Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 27-24

Seahawks @ 49ers (+1.5)

We’ve backed the 49ers the past two weeks, and both have paid off nicely. This team has now won six straight and seven of their last eight, with only one of those wins coming by single digits, last week’s four point win over Chicago.

The defense does give me some pause, as they’ve allowed an average of 30 points per game over their last three against Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Chicago. That said, I am extremely bullish on this offense. Brock Purdy has been excellent since returning from injury and now sits at 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season.

The biggest thing to monitor heading into this one is the injury report. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall have all been limited in recent practices, but I expect them to play. Trent Williams is the bigger concern and could miss this game, which would matter, so keep an eye on that.

San Francisco thrives through the air, and while Seattle’s defense is solid overall, it is more vulnerable against the pass. Seattle is hot as well, winning six straight, but this will be their second consecutive road game after traveling cross-country to Carolina last week. They have just two road wins all season against teams with winning records, and none since October 12.

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks should have some success offensively, and I expect this to be a tight game throughout. But San Francisco is at home, has flown a bit under the radar all season, and I have more confidence in Purdy making a play in crunch time. I think the Niners win this one and grab the overall number one seed. Getting points as the home dog is a gift, and we’ll happily take it.

The Pick: 49ers +1.5

Titans @ Jaguars (-12.5)

The next two games both feature teams fighting to win the AFC South, and we’ll start with Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season and will clinch the division with a win. They host the 3-13 Titans, who have shown some late-season fight by winning two of their last four, but this is still a highly overmatched roster basically playing out the string.

Jacksonville has won seven straight, outscoring opponents 228-109 during that stretch. They’ve allowed more than 20 points just once in those seven games. These teams met six weeks ago in Nashville, and the Jaguars dominated with a 25-3 win.

Tennessee owns the second-worst offense in the league, and while Cam Ward has shown some encouraging flashes that give Titans fans hope for the future, this is a tough spot. Asking him to go on the road and keep pace with this Jacksonville team won’t end well.

The Jaguars are playing for a division title. The Titans are just trying to get home for the offseason. Between the motivation gap, the talent edge, home field, and the recent head-to-head result, this sets up nicely. We’ll lay the points with Jacksonville here and feel very good about it.

Pick: Jaguars -12.5

Colts @ Texans (-10.5)

It’s a very similar story in the Texans vs. Colts game. Indianapolis was the darling of the league two months ago, but they’ve now lost six straight and are a team in complete disarray. The Philip Rivers experiment appears to be officially over, and they’ll once again turn to rookie Riley Leonard. Leonard enters this game with zero touchdown passes, two interceptions, and a 40.6 passer rating. Now he gets the daunting task of facing the #1 rated defense in the NFL, with Houston allowing just 16.6 points and 274.4 yards per game. Good luck, Mr. Leonard.

You’ll notice we’re backing several teams riding winning streaks, and Houston fits that narrative as well. The Texans have won eight straight. I don’t love their offense, but it has shown some improvement lately, especially through the air. That’s important here, because Indianapolis owns the second-worst pass defense in the league, and that weakness should be exploited. I also expect Houston’s defense to force multiple turnovers and consistently set the offense up with short fields.

Houston has everything to play for, they’re at home, and they bring a suffocating defense against a rookie quarterback making his first start and just his second appearance. 

The Texans roll comfortably.

The Pick: Texans -10.5

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