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Week 1 is officially in the books, and wow, it felt amazing to watch football all weekend long. Now, with the NFL kicking off, we’re in for non-stop action from Thursday through Monday, including a rare Friday night NFL game (looks like even high school football Fridays aren’t sacred anymore!). We couldn’t have asked for a better start—going 5-0 in Week 1, with four comfortable wins (shoutout to Elon for that garbage-time field goal!). This week, I like five college and three NFL games in my weekly best bets. Let’s keep the hot streak going!
Arkansas (+7.5) at Oklahoma State
After a roller-coaster 2022, Sam Pittman’s Arkansas Razorbacks are looking to bounce back in 2024. Their Week 1 performance was nothing short of dominant, crushing Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70-0. While the competition wasn’t fierce, the Razorbacks showcased their potential, particularly with quarterback Taylen Green, the transfer from Boise State. Green looked comfortable and explosive, leading an offense that passed for over 400 yards and nearly hit 300 yards on the ground. The offense was notably balanced, with 14 different players catching passes, indicating a diverse and unpredictable attack.
On the other side, Oklahoma State started their season with a 44-20 win over South Dakota State. While the scoreline might suggest a comfortable win, there are concerns about their ability to maintain that dominance against tougher opponents. Quarterback Alan Bowman had a solid game, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns, but his consistency remains a question mark. Additionally, while Ollie Gordon Jr. is one of the top running backs in the nation, he managed only 104 yards on 27 carries—solid, but not the kind of dominance you’d expect against a weaker opponent.
Oklahoma State is expected to be a contender in the Big 12, and while Arkansas might not challenge the top of the SEC, this matchup feels much closer than the spread suggests. The Razorbacks’ dynamic offense and the added confidence from their Week 1 performance make them a strong pick to cover the +7.5 spread, especially with that nice hook. This game has all the makings of a close contest, and I’m leaning towards Arkansas keeping it within a touchdown.
Michigan State at Maryland (-9)
Mike Locksley’s Maryland squad is poised to make some noise in the Big Ten this year. Their Week 1 performance, albeit against UConn, was impressive, as they racked up over 370 passing yards and 250 rushing yards in a dominant 50-7 victory. QB Billy Edwards, who threw for 311 yards and added 39 on the ground, looked electrifying, easing concerns after Taulia Tagovailoa’s departure.
On the other hand, to say that Michigan State looked shaky in their 16-10 win over lowly Florida Atlantic is being very kind. The Spartans struggled offensively, with quarterback Aidan Chiles managing just 114 passing yards and looking uncomfortable throughout. While their run game showed some promise, their passing attack and overall offensive output were lackluster.
With Maryland’s explosive offense and Michigan State’s struggles, it’s hard to see how the Spartans can keep up. I expect the Terrapins to cruise to a comfortable double-digit victory in College Park.
Western Michigan at Ohio State (-38)
Ohio State had a bit of a slow start against Akron, finding themselves down 3-0 early and leading just 17-3 at halftime. But once they kicked into gear, they showcased their immense talent, pulling away to a 52-6 victory. This team might not fully live up to their “all-world” hype, but they have firepower across the board, and Jeremiah Smith is quickly becoming must-see TV. Will Howard, while still finding his rhythm, looked more comfortable as the game progressed, steering the offense effectively.
On the other hand, Western Michigan gave Wisconsin a bit of a scare, performing admirably against a Big Ten opponent. However, Wisconsin’s roster doesn’t stack up to Ohio State’s, and it’s hard to imagine the Broncos being able to keep pace for four quarters. Historically, Western Michigan has struggled mightily against Big Ten teams, going 0-6 straight up and against the spread since 2016.
That trend is likely to continue as the Buckeyes gear up for an easy Saturday night game at the Shoe. Expect Ohio State to flex their muscles and cover the spread in dominant fashion.
Houston at Oklahoma (-29)
This pick is driven as much by my belief in Oklahoma as it is by my lack of faith in Houston. The Cougars struggled mightily in a 27-7 loss to UNLV. While the Rebels are a solid Mountain West contender, Oklahoma presents a far more formidable challenge. Willie Fritz is a respected coach, but he’s facing an uphill battle with this squad. Houston’s offensive imbalance, highlighted by a mere 40 rushing yards, is a significant weakness that Oklahoma is sure to exploit.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma looked every bit the playoff contender in their 51-3 dismantling of Temple. Quarterback Jackson Arnold was electric, both through the air and on the ground, leading a Sooners team that appears well-rounded on both sides of the ball. Their offense looks to already be in mid-season form, and their defense looks much improved.
With the game in Norman, I fully expect the Sooners to dominate from start to finish. Lay the points with confidence—Oklahoma should have no trouble covering the spread and delivering a decisive victory.
Tennessee at NC State (in Charlotte) (Over 60.5)
This line started at 58.5 and has been climbing, but I’m still all in on the over. Both Tennessee and NC State bring potent offenses to the table, while neither defense is particularly strong. Tennessee’s defense lacks returning starters in key positions, and NC State’s unit is rebuilding as well.
Offensively, it’s a different story. Nico Iamaleava was electric last week, throwing for 314 yards in Tennessee’s 69-3 blowout win. Grayson McCall, though shaky in his Wolfpack debut, is a veteran QB with the ability to air it out—he attempted 40 passes last week and should do more of the same here.
This matchup in Charlotte has all the makings of a high-scoring, action-packed Saturday night showdown. Expect plenty of fireworks on the scoreboard, so sit back, munch on some popcorn, and enjoy the show!
Steelers at Falcons (-3.5)
If you caught my NFL preseason O/U locks, you already know how high I am on the Falcons this season. Kirk Cousins brings the leadership and skill that Atlanta desperately needed at quarterback, and he’s set to maximize the potential of rising stars like Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
The Steelers were middling on defense and struggled offensively in 2023. While Russell Wilson is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett and the Jaylen Warren-Najee Harris duo is solid, there’s little else that excites me about Pittsburgh.
The Falcons made key defensive upgrades with LB Matthew Judon and Safety Justin Simmons, and with new coach Raheem Morris implementing a fresh offense with Cousins at the helm, I’m confident in the Falcons winning this game by a touchdown.
Cardinals (+6.5) at Buffalo
While I’m not predicting the complete downfall of the Buffalo Bills, I do think they’ll need a few games to adjust to some offseason changes. Josh Allen and James Cook should still perform well, though behind a somewhat average offensive line. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Allen’s new receiving corps will take some getting used to. The Bills’ defense remains strong but faces age and injury concerns.
On the other hand, I’m optimistic about Kyler Murray, now fully healthy, paired with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and James Conner. While Arizona’s defense remains a concern after ranking near the bottom last year, their offense should keep them competitive. This won’t be a low-scoring slugfest and the Bills were certainly put some points on the board, but the Cardinals should keep it close. Getting nearly a touchdown is significant in the NFL, and I like Arizona to cover.
Titans (+4) at Bears
In my preseason picks, I was bullish on the Titans, and this Week 1 matchup only strengthens my confidence. Will Levis is poised to turn heads this season, especially with a healthy De’Andre Hopkins and the addition of Calvin Ridley, not to mention fresh legs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears stepping in for Derrick Henry. Tennessee’s offense looks ready to score points in bunches.
On the flip side, while Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze might be future stars, it’s their first NFL game. Expect some growing pains and conservative play-calling as they adjust to the pro level. Chicago’s offensive line, which struggled last season, has seen some improvements, but I’m not expecting them to suddenly transform into an elite unit right out of the gate. Their defense, one of the league’s weakest in 2023, also doesn’t inspire confidence that a massive turnaround will happen in the season opener.
Neither the Titans nor the Bears are likely headed to the Super Bowl this year, but both teams are on the upswing. Given how evenly matched they appear, I actually like the Titans to win outright. So, getting four points is a bonus that I’m more than happy to take advantage of.