Bierman’s Best Bets – Week 3
Last Week’s Record (ATS): 3-5
Season Record (ATS): 8-5
After kicking off the season with a hot 5-0 start, we cooled off a bit last week, finishing 3-5. While there were a couple of tough losses, we also had some close wins, so no complaints here. It’s all about moving forward, and I’m ready to bounce back in Week 3. Not a lot of games stood out to me this week, but I’ve got my eye on three intriguing college matchups and two NFL games to highlight. Let’s dive in and get back on track.
Arizona (+7.5) at Kansas State
Both teams come into this matchup with defenses that rank poorly, sitting in the lower quartiles of the FBS. The key stat that jumps out is Kansas State’s ranking of 117th in passing yards allowed, which plays into Arizona’s strength as they rank second in the nation with an average of 422 passing yards per game and are third in total offense with 627 yards per game. Throw in the fact that Arizona has also covered the past five games where they have been underdogs of 7 points or more.
Kansas State struggled last week against Tulane and was close to losing. While quarterback Avery Johnson is a dynamic player capable of putting up points, he has had a slow start to the season. On the other hand, Arizona showed some rust against Northern Arizona but has the offensive firepower to exploit Kansas State’s leaky defense.
Expect a high-scoring affair, with Kansas State lighting up the scoreboard as well, but Arizona’s ability to move the ball through the air will keep them competitive. The Desert Cats have the offensive weapons to cover the +7.5 spread and challenge the Farm Cats in what could turn into a shootout.
West Virgina at Pittsburgh (+2.5)
Pittsburgh overcame a slow start last week to pull off a thrilling 28-27 victory over Cincinnati, improving their record to 2-0. The Panthers’ offense has quietly been explosive, ranking 11th in the nation while averaging over 527 yards per game.
Quarterback Eli Holstein has been impressive, throwing for over 300 yards in the comeback against the Bearcats. Running back Desmond Reid has also been a standout, racking up 148 rushing yards and 106 receiving yards, including a touchdown. Reid’s versatility makes him a dynamic player to watch.
West Virginia rebounded from a tough loss to Penn State by defeating Albany 49-14. Quarterback Graham Greene had a standout performance, and if he can bring that same level of play against Pittsburgh, it will be a close game. Running back CJ Donaldson adds balance to their offense, but the real concern for the Mountaineers is their defense, which has struggled mightily in giving up a boatload of yardage and now faces a high-powered Pitt offense.
With the game at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, the home crowd will be loud for the Backyard Brawl. While this game could be tight, Pitt’s potent offense, combined with West Virginia’s defensive struggles, makes the Panthers a good bet to cover the 2.5-point spread.
South Florida at Southern Mississippi (Under 58.5)
I had to double-check the numbers on this one because it looked so go good to me – the under is a strong play. While neither defense is elite, both are more than capable, with Southern Miss ranking in the top 60 defensively. What really stands out, though, is the offensive struggles of both teams.
Starting with South Florida, their offense has been underwhelming, averaging only 309 total yards per game, placing them 83rd in the nation. Even with an easier opponent in Bethune Cookman, they haven’t been able to consistently move the ball.
On the other side, Southern Miss has also had significant offensive issues. Despite a 35-10 win over Southeastern Louisiana, they were shut out 31-0 by Kentucky and are only averaging 131 total yards per game, ranking close to dead last at 130th in the FBS.
Given both teams’ offensive inefficiency and serviceable defenses, this game is shaping up to comfortably stay under the total. Neither team has shown they can move the ball consistently, which should keep the score low.
Bears at Texans (-6.5)
Caleb Williams’ debut was far from stellar, going 14 for 29 with just 93 passing yards as the Bears offense struggled to generate momentum, totaling less than 200 yards. Despite their poor offensive showing, Chicago managed to edge out a 24-17 win over the Titans, largely thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns.
On the other hand, the Texans looked sharp. C.J. Stroud excelled with 234 passing yards and two touchdowns to Stefon Diggs, while Joe Mixon dominated the ground game with 159 rushing yards and a touchdown. Nico Collins also continued to prove he is a rising star while notching 117 yards.
Even though the Texans’ defense showed some vulnerability against the Colts, they appear to be in a different league compared to the Bears. Williams may improve in Week 2, but Houston’s offense, led by Stroud and Mixon, should outmatch Chicago, resulting in a comfortable Texans victory.
Colts (-3) at Packers
This matchup would look much different if Jordan Love were healthy and playing. But with Malik Willis under center, I’m confident betting against a team with a shaky backup quarterback being called up to start. Willis has struggled in his limited NFL experience, losing 3 fumbles and throwing 3 interceptions in just 67 pass attempts. The Colts’ defense had a rough time against Houston’s explosive offense last week, but the Packers won’t pose nearly as much of a challenge.
Anthony Richardson flashed his potential on Sunday but also showed some inexperience. If he can make smart throws and use his legs when needed, the Colts should have no trouble moving the ball against a Packers defense that just allowed 410 yards and 34 points to the Eagles. I expect Willis to get rattled and turn the ball over at least twice.
While Indianapolis isn’t a powerhouse, they’re good enough to capitalize on Green Bay’s quarterback situation. I’m picking the Colts to win and cover the spread at Lambeau.
