Bierman’s Bowl Bets – CFP First Round Games
Last week, I shared our Bowl Bets for the first seven games of the season. Today, we’re diving into the first four CFP matchups with each one presenting a compelling showdown. Unlike many of the other bowl games, these matchups feel a bit easier to predict. We have more clarity on who will be playing or sitting out, and we can count on both teams bringing their best efforts with everything on the line.
In these games, we’re leaning toward the road underdogs in most matchups, with Penn State being the lone exception. This historic first round of CFP action promises to deliver some incredible football as we march closer to crowning this year’s National Champion. Sandman Nation, get ready for some thrilling games!
Please note that because I’m picking EVERY game during bowl season, I’ll assign confidence points to my picks, using football icons to represent my confidence level: fewer footballs for lower confidence and up to 5 footballs for my strongest picks. Let’s go!
CFP Playoff First Round – Game #1
Friday, December 20th at 8:00 PM
South Bend, Indiana
Indiana (+7.5) at Notre Dame
In our latest podcast, our Top 5 centered around bold predictions for bowl season, and my #3 pick was this: the Fighting Cigs, aka the Indiana Hoosiers, will not only cover the spread but win outright against Notre Dame. So yes, I’m more than happy to take the 7.5 points here.
It’s true that Indiana hasn’t faced the toughest schedule in the nation, but their only loss came on the road against another CFP team. They navigated a challenging Big 10 slate with remarkable success. On the flip side, Notre Dame has rebounded well after their shocking early-season home loss to Northern Illinois. But let’s not forget – they lost that game at home. I remain convinced that this Irish squad isn’t quite as strong as their record suggests.
Statistically, these teams are nearly mirror images of each other:
- Offense: Both rank #2 and #3 nationally in offense, each averaging around 40 points and 420 yards per game.
- Defense: Indiana boasts the #3 defense in the nation, allowing just 256 yards per game, while Notre Dame’s defense ranks #10, giving up 296 yards.
- Discipline: Both teams excel at protecting the ball and minimizing penalties, setting up a tight, competitive matchup.
This game is much closer than the line implies. I believe Coach Curt Cignetti will have his team motivated, determined, and ready to prove their worth on a national stage. He said it best last week: if this team wore a “Michigan” jersey instead of “Indiana,” they’d have a better seed. That chip on their shoulder will fuel their performance. I love Indiana here getting more than a touchdown and wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off the outright win.
The Pick: Indiana +7.5
CFP Playoff First Round – Game #2
Saturday, December 21st at 12:00 PM
State College, Pennsylvania
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
As mentioned in last week’s podcast, where we shared our Top 5 bold bowl predictions, my #1 pick was that Penn State will win the National Championship this year. So yes, I fully expect them to win this game. That said, I’m not in love with this betting line.
Penn State boasts a top-5 defense, allowing just 282 yards per game, and a top-10 offense, averaging nearly 450 yards per game. Their two losses this season were to other CFP teams, and they’ll be playing at home in cold weather with the full force of a hostile White Out crowd behind them. This will be a tall challenge for SMU.
However, let’s not dismiss SMU. They’ve had a very solid season and showed resilience in the ACC Championship, nearly rallying back after an early deficit against Clemson. With top-30 units on both sides of the ball, SMU is a disciplined and competitive team that won’t be intimidated. But traveling north in January for an outdoor game against a blue-blood powerhouse like Penn State is a tough ask.
While I believe Penn State will cover the spread, I also think bettors will be sweating it out late, as a backdoor cover for SMU is entirely possible. Still, I’ll take the Nittany Lions and give the points, knowing the spread’s final outcome could come down to the wire.
The Pick: Penn State -8.5
CFP Playoff First Round – Game #3
Saturday, December 21st at 4:00 PM
Austin, Texas
Clemson (+11.5) at Texas
This is my least confident pick of the four CFP playoff games. Texas looked uninspired in their SEC Championship loss to Georgia, while Clemson put together an impressive performance to beat SMU and secure their 8th ACC title in the last decade. Now, the Tigers head to Austin to face a motivated Longhorns team eager to bounce back, backed by a raucous home crowd.
Both teams feature top-15 offenses, capable of moving the ball effectively. However, Texas holds a significant edge defensively, ranking #2 in the nation and allowing fewer than 250 yards per game. Quarterback Quinn Ewers didn’t look sharp against Georgia, but he still threw for over 350 yards. It will be interesting to see how Coach Steve Sarkisian handles the situation if Ewers struggles early on.
For Clemson, the key will be getting QB Cade Klubnik comfortable early with short and mid-range passes to build confidence. The Tigers’ running game has been ineffective in their last two games against FBS opponents (South Carolina and Pittsburgh), and they’ll need to establish it early if they want a shot at pulling off the upset.
While Texas is the better team on paper, this feels like a lot of points for a playoff game. We’ll take Clemson to cover the spread, but with low confidence, as this one could truly go either way.
The Pick: Clemson +11.5
CFP Playoff First Round – Game #4
Saturday, December 21st at 8:00 PM
Columbus, Ohio
Tennessee (+7) at Ohio State
I’m really looking forward to this matchup, as I’m fascinated to see how Ryan Day’s Buckeyes respond after their shocking loss to Michigan to close out the regular season. This is an incredibly talented team featuring the nation’s #1 defense in yards allowed and a potent offense. However, QB Will Howard looked uncomfortable against Michigan, and the play-calling leaned far too conservative in critical moments.
On the other side, Coach Josh Heupel’s Tennessee Volunteers have been an enigma this season. Despite an impressive 11-2 record, with losses only to Georgia and, surprisingly, Arkansas, their offense, while averaging over 440 yards per game, has a tendency to go quiet for stretches. Their defense, however, is near elite and could pose significant challenges for Howard and the Buckeyes’ offense.
I believe the key to this game lies with Vols QB Nico Iamaleava. His poise, passing efficiency, and ability to extend plays with his legs will be critical in keeping Tennessee competitive. Discipline could also play a deciding role, as both teams are solid l in turnover margin, but Ohio State commits significantly fewer penalties (four less per game) giving them an edge in crucial situations.
That said, I like Tennessee getting the points here. They might not win outright, but a touchdown feels like a lot in what should be a tightly contested battle between two evenly matched teams, even in a hostile environment with cold weather. I’ll roll with the Orange and White to cover in this one.
The Pick: Tennessee +7
