Well, we went 1–3 in the CFP opening round, but we’re sitting at 15–12 overall for bowl season as of 12/30, so we’ll take it. And this is a really interesting slate of quarterfinal games, with something compelling in all four matchups, including a great mix of bluebloods and “new bloods”.

There’s a 2002 national title game rematch, the best team this season facing the best program of this century, an SEC rematch, and an Oregon–Texas Tech game where the higher seed is the underdog.

One angle I’ll be watching closely across all four games is how the top four seeds respond after essentially being off for a month. Last year, all four teams that played in the opening round went on to win their quarterfinal matchups. Now, the seeding was different and the competition wasn’t quite as strong in some of those games, but the extended time off is still something worth monitoring.

Either way, this should be an awesome two days of football to ring in the new year so let’s get into the breakdowns.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX)

Miami FL (+9.5) vs. Ohio State 

Wednesday, December 31st at 8:30 PM

These two massive brands have only met five times, but one of those meetings produced one of the greatest national championship games in college football history. Back in the 2002 title game, the 13-0 Buckeyes entered the Fiesta Bowl as 11.5-point underdogs against the big, bad Hurricanes, who were loaded with stars like Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Kellen Winslow Jr., Vince Wilfork, Jonathan Vilma, and plenty more. That game went to double overtime and featured a controversial pass interference call in the end zone against Miami, but Ohio State ultimately pulled it out to win the national title, their first and only under Jim Tressel.

Now, the roles are completely reversed. Ohio State comes in as the heavy favorite with a loaded roster and as the defending national champions. They haven’t missed a beat under first-year quarterback Julian Sayin, who was a Heisman finalist, ranks third in the FBS with 31 touchdown passes, and leads the country with an elite 182.1 quarterback rating. Add in stars like wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, corner Caleb Downs, and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, and it’s easy to see why many believe this team is the favorite to repeat. While the offense can stall at times, the defense is absolutely suffocating, leading the nation by allowing just 217 yards and 9 points per game.

I’ve said it before, but Miami is the Rodney Dangerfield of this CFP field and simply isn’t getting much respect. They leaned into that chip on their shoulder ten days ago by going into College Station and grinding out a 10-3 win. Their defense is no joke either, ranking fourth in points allowed and tenth in yards allowed, so Ohio State will also struggle to move the ball freely.

Quarterback Carson Beck is a veteran and has been in these high pressure spots before. While sometimes plagued by inconsistency, Beck has been a respected leader and ranks inside the top 20 in most major quarterback categories this season. Both coaches can make questionable decisions from time to time, which could matter in a game like this, but Miami does a better job forcing turnovers, and I think that plays a key role here.

This is a big number. Ohio State will probably find a way to advance, but Miami is far better than the respect they’re getting. I’ll gladly take the points in this one.

The Pick: Miami +9.5

CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl (Miami, FL)

Oregon vs. Texas Tech (+2.5)

Thursday, January 1st at 1:00 pm

I’m not even going to pretend to build suspense here. I absolutely love Texas Tech in this spot, and I genuinely believe they have a real shot to win the whole thing. Because they play in Lubbock and reside in the Big 12, the Red Raiders don’t get nearly the attention they deserve, but sleeping on this team would be a massive mistake.

I just spent time gushing about Ohio State’s No. 1 ranked defense in points and yards allowed, but guess who sits right behind them at No. 2 in both categories? Yep, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are allowing just 267 yards and 11 points per game. Led by linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey, defensive tackle Lee Hunter, and plenty of other talented defenders, this is a unit that can shut down even the most explosive offenses. And the offense is pretty darn good too. Tech ranks inside the top 10 offensively and is led by quarterback Behren Morton, who pilots the 12th-best passing attack in the country.

Oregon is no slouch either though. They also rank top 10 on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Dante Moore is an electric playmaker who can keep the Ducks in any game. I’m just not fully sold when you dig into the résumé. Their best win was probably at home in Autzen against USC, a 15-point victory. They also beat bowl teams like Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State, but none of those really excite me. Their only true elite test came at home against Indiana, and they lost that game by ten.

Texas Tech doesn’t have a long list of marquee wins either, but they did beat BYU twice, and their only loss all season was a four-point road loss to a solid, if unspectacular, Arizona State team in Tempe. The difference is how Tech wins. In their 12 victories, they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 530-116, which comes out to roughly 44-10 per game. Their smallest margin of victory all season was 23 points, and six of their wins came by 30 or more.

This team is legitimately special. I don’t expect them to blow Oregon out, but on paper, Texas Tech checks every box. I don’t see how they don’t win this game outright. Getting points here feels like a New Year’s gift, and I’m more than happy to take it.

The Pick: Texas Tech +2.5

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)

Alabama vs. Indiana (-7)

Thursday, January 1st at 5:00 pm

Now it’s on to the Granddaddy of them all, and nobody would have predicted this matchup in the Rose Bowl as a CFP quarterfinal two years ago. And if they did, they certainly would not have predicted Indiana to be favored by more than a touchdown. Yet here we are.

Curt Cignetti has done a masterful job in just two seasons in Bloomington, and this team is very similar to Texas Tech in a lot of ways. Even though they play in the Big Ten, there are still plenty of people hesitant to fully buy into the Hoosiers. Believe it or not, they are still being overlooked and underestimated. This despite having the No. 3 rated defense in the country in both yards and points allowed, just slightly behind Tech and Ohio State in those categories.

While Indiana hasn’t dominated its entire schedule quite like Texas Tech has, they do have several lopsided wins and, more importantly, two very impressive victories against teams still alive in the CFP: Oregon and Ohio State. Both of those came away from home or on neutral fields, which tells you this team can beat quality opponents regardless of venue.

Now they face the greatest college football program of this century. Alabama may look a little more mortal these days, especially without the intimidating scowl of Nick Saban stalking the sideline, but this is still a massive blue blood loaded with five-star talent. Many complained about Alabama making the field with three losses, but two of those came against fellow CFP teams in Oklahoma and Georgia, and the odd loss to Florida State happened way back on opening weekend. The Tide also boast arguably the best collection of quality wins in the field, with victories over bowl teams Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma in the first round rematch.

That said, Alabama does have real flaws, most notably in the running game. While Ty Simpson can be excellent when he is on, he has had his ups and downs, and for the Crimson Tide to win this game they will need to establish the run. That is easier said than done. Alabama ranks 125th in rushing out of 136 FBS teams, while Indiana sits third nationally against the run. That is a brutal matchup. Alabama does have a top 25 passing offense, but Indiana also owns a top 25 pass defense, making that battle one of the defining elements of this game.

I don’t love that it is a full touchdown, and Alabama is absolutely capable of rising to the occasion. But Indiana is very real, and assuming there is no Heisman letdown for Fernando Mendoza, I like the Hoosiers to cover here, albeit with slightly less confidence than some other spots.

The Pick: Indiana -7

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA)

Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-6.5)

Thursday, January 1st at 9:00 pm

I came into my research for this game thinking it would be one of the tougher quarterfinal games to handicap, but I actually like one side with a decent amount of confidence.

Georgia comes in riding a nine-game winning streak, and their only loss all season was a three-point setback to Alabama back in late September, a loss they emphatically avenged by beating the Tide by 21 in the SEC Championship. They also beat this same Ole Miss team by eight in mid-October, but that game was in Athens and required 17 unanswered fourth-quarter points to pull it out.

Georgia’s offense is solid, but far from spectacular. Quarterback Gunner Stockton deserves credit for steady leadership and consistently winning games, but the numbers are pretty pedestrian. He ranks 52nd nationally in passing yards and 24th in overall quarterback rating. The Bulldogs’ true strength is the run game, somewhat by committee, with Nate Frazier leading the way at 868 rushing yards. That actually sets up well here, as Ole Miss has been below average against the run. If Georgia can move the chains on the ground, it should open things up for Stockton, and to his credit, he does take care of the football, as he has only 5 interceptions on the season.

For me, the more fascinating side of this matchup is when Ole Miss has the ball.

The Rebels boast the No. 2 offense in the country, led by the ultra-talented, dual threat Trindidad Chambliss, who took over a few games into the season and hasn’t looked back. They average over 300 passing yards per game, and while Georgia is not bad against the pass, it certainly isn’t their strength. And while Chambliss gets most of the attention, running back Kewan Lacy is eighth nationally in rushing yards and gives Ole Miss needed balance. 

In the October meeting, Georgia held Lacy to just 31 rushing yards, and Stockton threw four touchdowns without an interception. I don’t see that narrative replaying itself here. Admittedly, I get a little nervous backing Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin on the sideline. That said, this feels like an angry team with something to prove. 

I’ll take the 6.5 points with Ole Miss here, and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rebels pull off the outright upset in the Sugar Bowl.

The Pick: Ole Miss +6.5

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