We’re having another strong bowl season. We went 3-1 in the CFP quarterfinals and now sit at 23-18-1 overall during bowl season.

The quarterfinals didn’t feature many close games, but Ole Miss vs. Georgia was an instant classic. Oregon reminded everyone why the Big 12 still isn’t a true big-boy conference. Miami knocked off the defending national champions behind a suffocating defensive performance. And in what might be the strangest changing of the guard college football has ever seen, once-downtrodden Indiana handed Alabama its worst bowl loss ever, cruising to a 38-3 win in the Rose Bowl and emerging as the Vegas favorite to win it all.

Strange times in college football, for sure.

We’ve got two semifinal games left and then the national title, so let’s dive into the semis this week.

CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl (Tempe, AZ)

Miami FL vs. Ole Miss (+3.5)

Thursday, January 8th at 7:30 PM

I’ve been impressed with both of these teams throughout the playoffs. First, I’ve been enamored with Miami’s defense all season long, so I’m not necessarily surprised by how dominant it has been. Still, holding their first two CFP opponents to a combined 17 points is incredibly impressive.

And Ole Miss deserves just as much credit. Enduring the strange Lane Kiffin saga, rallying around new head coach Pete Golding, taking care of business against Tulane as expected, and then looking like the better team against Georgia for most of that game is equally impressive. This is a fascinating matchup because it pits an elite defense against an elite offense.

Miami’s defense hasn’t just been great in the playoffs. They’ve allowed fewer than 14 points per game this season and haven’t given up more than 26 points in any contest. It is worth noting that while shutting down Texas A&M and Ohio State is no small feat, neither of those offenses is on the same level as Ole Miss.

Ole Miss comes in with the No. 2 ranked offense in the country, scoring nearly 37 points per game and averaging close to 500 yards of offense. Everything runs through super-transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who came from Division II Ferris State where he won two national titles. He was incredible last week, making play after electrifying play against Georgia. Assuming Chambliss returns to college football next season, he’ll undoubtedly be a preseason Heisman favorite.

But Ole Miss is not one-dimensional. They also have a dangerous run game led by Kewan Lacy, and that balance will be critical against the Canes.

Here’s the key thing to remember. Miami’s defense is lights out against the run, but they are more vulnerable through the air. That plays directly into Ole Miss’ strength. I’ve got a sneaky feeling we’re going to see the Rebels set the pace early, put points on the board, and force Carson Beck and company to keep up.

Beck is a seasoned veteran and won’t necessarily succumb to the pressure of the moment, but I’m not convinced he can consistently engineer enough offense to match Ole Miss score for score. He’s also prone to the turnover bug, and I see that coming into play here. Ole Miss’ defense isn’t anywhere near as dominant as Miami’s, but it’s good enough to apply pressure and create mistakes.

While it wouldn’t shock me to see the Canes win and cover, getting more than a field goal with a team that feels destined to at least reach the national title game, if not win it all, is too good to pass up.

Give us the Rebs and the points.

The Pick: Ole Miss +3.5

CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA)

Oregon vs. Indiana (-3.5)

Friday, January 9th at 7:30 pm

Watching Indiana crush the greatest program of the 21st century was one of the most surreal sports moments I can remember in a long time. I kept asking myself, “Is this actually happening? Are the Indiana Hoosiers really taking the Alabama Crimson Tide to the woodshed? In a football game?!” The answer was an emphatic yes.

Now we get a rematch from a great regular-season Big Ten matchup. Back in early October, Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 in Autzen. But don’t forget, that game was tied 20-20 with six and a half minutes left, so it truly came down to the wire.

Oregon comes into this game fresh off a dominant blowout of Texas Tech, producing the first shutout we’ve seen in the CFP playoffs since 2017, and only the third in history. Many people think of the Ducks as an offensive juggernaut, but their defense often gets overlooked. Oregon ranks fourth nationally in yards allowed, and they can be just as dangerous as any elite defense left in the field, including Miami’s and Indiana’s. They deserve credit for what they’ve done on that side of the ball.

And then there’s the offense, led by ultra-talented quarterback Dante Moore, who could very well be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. If it isn’t Moore, it may be the quarterback standing across from him on Friday night, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.

Mendoza leads the nation with 36 passing touchdowns, while Moore isn’t far behind with 28. Both quarterbacks rank inside the top seven in QB rating, and both will be the primary reason their teams have a chance to win this game.

While I’m impressed with Oregon and expect them to keep this close throughout, Indiana just feels destined. They can win games in so many different ways, and I’m not sure there’s a team in the country with more impressive victories this season than Indiana’s wins over fellow CFP teams Ohio State, Alabama, and this same Oregon squad.

They beat Ohio State 13-10 in a defensive slugfest. They beat Oregon 30-20 by making plays when they needed to. And they’ve scored 55 or more points six different times this season, proving they can absolutely light up the scoreboard when required.

Dan Lanning and Curt Cignetti are both elite coaches, so there’s no real edge there. But Indiana just has the look and feel of a champion this season.

I think they win this one by a touchdown.

The Pick: Indiana -3.5

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