Bierman’s Bowl Bets – Wave 1 (Dec 14 – 20)
Bowl Season has arrived, and it’s time for the best part of college football! During the regular season, I pick a handful of games each week that I feel strongly about and share them here as my “Best Bets.” For Bowl Season, however, I’m taking it up a notch. I’ll provide thoughts, commentary, and a pick for every single bowl game.
That said, I won’t have the same level of confidence in every pick. To help you gauge my confidence, I’m using a football rating system—more footballs mean more confidence.
Please note, this first wave of picks is being published early (on December 9th), so keep in mind that news like transfer portal moves, injuries, and coaching changes could still affect some games. Be sure to stay updated as things develop. I’ll release a new wave of picks every few days until all the games are previewed and selected.
Enjoy Bowl Season, and good luck cashing those tickets, Sandman Nation!
Note: Lower confidence will be one football, highest confidence will be 5
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Saturday, December 14th at 9:00 PM
Montgomery, Alabama
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan (+10.5)
This matchup features two evenly mediocre teams, both sitting at 6-6 on the season. Neither has been impressive, with just one win each over teams with a winning record – Western Michigan beat 8-4 Buffalo, while South Alabama took down 10-3 Louisiana. Both defenses rank near the bottom nationally, at 101st and 102nd, respectively.
The Jaguars hold an edge offensively, but laying 10.5 points feels steep in a game between two struggling teams. Western Michigan’s discipline could prove crucial here—they are the third-least penalized team in the nation, averaging just 3.7 penalties per game, while South Alabama ranks among the worst, with over 8 penalties per game.
With two teams that appear evenly matched overall, I’ll take the points and back the Broncos to keep it close.
The Pick: Western Michigan +10.5
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, December 17th at 9:00 PM
Frisco, Texas
Memphis (-2) vs. West Virginia
This matchup presents an interesting twist, as the line initially opened with West Virginia favored by 3.5 points but has since swung to Memphis as a 2-point favorite. Memphis comes in at 10-2, enjoying a strong season by any standard, while West Virginia, at 6-6, is dealing with significant turbulence. The Mountaineers just fired head coach Neal Brown, leaving offensive coordinator Chad Scott as the interim, and have also lost a few players to the transfer portal.
Statistically, Memphis holds clear advantages. They boast a top-10 offense in total yardage, compared to West Virginia’s 101st-ranked unit, and their defense is also superior. However, the sharp movement in the line is noteworthy and gives some reason for pause. Additionally, Memphis has only one win this season against a team with a winning record (Tulane, two weeks ago), raising questions about how well they perform against good teams.
Despite these concerns, Memphis is still the better team in this matchup, and I expect them to cover the spread. However, my confidence in this pick is tempered by the line movement and Memphis’s resume.
The Pick: Memphis -2
Boca Raton Bowl
Wednesday, December 18th at 5:30 PM
Boca Raton, Florida
Western Kentucky vs James Madison (-7)
We’ve often highlighted on our podcast the remarkable job Curt Cignetti has done since taking over at Indiana this year, transitioning from James Madison and even bringing some key players with him. But now it’s time to give the Dukes their due credit. Despite losing their head coach and several contributors, James Madison still delivered an impressive season, finishing 8-4. Among their wins was a standout performance against North Carolina back in September.
While they ended the regular season with two straight losses, their bowl opponent, Western Kentucky, has been even less consistent. The Hilltoppers come in at 8-5 but were dismantled 52-12 by Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship.
James Madison brings a significant edge into this matchup. They boast a Top 25 defense, a Top 35 offense, and lead the nation in turnover margin at +1.4 per game. While a full touchdown is a sizable spread for a bowl game between two smaller conference teams, James Madison’s overall talent and defensive strength give them a clear advantage. Expect the Dukes to play with a chip on their shoulder and cover the number comfortably.
The Pick: James Madison -7
Art of Sport LA Bowl
Wednesday, December 18th at 9:00 PM
Inglewood, California
California vs. UNLV (+2.5)
This matchup features two teams that are fairly evenly matched across most offensive and defensive metrics, which explains the tight line and why I don’t have a strong lean either way. Cal’s first season in the ACC was unspectacular, but they did notch an early win over Auburn and were competitive in most of their losses. Justin Wilcox remains one of the nation’s most underrated coaches and will have the Golden Bears motivated and prepared for this game.
UNLV, on the other hand, is coming off an impressive 10-3 season that included a trip to the Mountain West Championship, where they fell to Boise State for the second time this season. Their only other loss was a thrilling 44-41 game against Syracuse. While betting on teams that lose their head coach is always tricky – Barry Odom has recently been named the head coach at Purdue – this is still a talented Rebels team with something to prove.
Given how evenly matched these teams are, I’ll side with UNLV getting points in what should be a competitive contest.
The Pick: UNLV +2.5
R&L Carrier New Orleans Bowl
Thursday, December 19th at 9:00 PM
New Orleans, Louisiana
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston St (+5.5)
This matchup features two solid but unspectacular teams from smaller conferences, both eager to secure a rare bowl victory. Let’s get straight to the point: while both offenses are fairly average, the real difference lies on the defensive side. Sam Houston State boasts a top-15 defense, while Georgia Southern struggles mightily, ranking among the bottom 15 in the nation and allowing over 450 yards per game.
Sam Houston should have little trouble moving the ball against such a porous defense, and getting 5.5 points makes this an appealing play. The Bobcats’ strong defensive edge gives them a great chance to keep this game close—or even win outright.
The Pick: Sam Houston State +5.5
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Friday, December 20th at Noon
Orlando, Florida
Ohio (-2) vs Jacksonville St
On paper, this matchup looks like one to back with confidence. The Ohio Bobcats are coming off a dominant 38-3 victory in the MAC Championship, an impressive performance against a strong Miami (OH) team. Ohio looked elite on both sides of the ball and, upon further analysis, ranks in the top 12 nationally in total offense and total defense—an impressive and rare feat.
However, their opponent, Jacksonville State, is no pushover. The Gamecocks are coming off an even larger blowout, dismantling Western Kentucky 52-12 to claim their conference championship. This is a team that started the season 0-3 but has gone 9-1 since, showing remarkable resilience. There are also rumors swirling about head coach Rich Rodriguez potentially leaving for the West Virginia job, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to their preparation.
Although the stats clearly favor Ohio, Jacksonville State’s recent momentum and the questions surrounding their potential coaching change make this matchup difficult to gauge. I’m taking the Bobcats to cover the small spread, but this ranks as one of my least confident picks of the season.
The Pick: Ohio -2
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, December 20th at 3:30 PM
Tampa, Florida
Tulane vs Florida (-12)
This is the first bowl game of the season featuring a true powerhouse program, as the Florida Gators take on the Tulane Green Wave. The key question here is motivation. Smaller schools often relish the opportunity to play in bowl games, while a program like Florida, coming from the SEC, might not bring the same intensity. How much will the Gators care about this matchup?
Tulane enters with concerns of their own. They’ve dropped their last two games and will be without QB Darian Mensah, who entered the transfer portal and won’t suit up for the bowl. Despite this, Tulane still boasts a top-15 defense and a solid offense, though those strengths will be tested without their leader under center.
Florida, on the other hand, has looked sharp since QB DJ Lagway returned from injury, adding much-needed stability to their offense. Makin matters more confusing, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall recently turned down overtures from North Carolina and signed an extension, signaling his commitment to keeping his team focused and prepared.
Despite the large spread, Tulane’s unsettled offensive situation makes it hard to trust them. I’ll take the Gators to cover, but this is another pick with lower confidence.
The Pick: Florida -12
