Bierman’s Bowl Bets – Wave 2 (Dec 23 – 26)
We’re off to a strong start this Bowl Season, Sandman Nation, opening with an 8-3 record in our first 11 games! As we head into the Christmas holiday, we’re eyeing a mix of larger favorites and a few live underdogs to keep the momentum going.
Please note that since we’re predicting every bowl game, I’ll assign confidence points to each pick using football icons: fewer footballs for lower confidence and up to 5 footballs for my top picks. Wishing you a Merry Christmas, Sandman Nation, and the best of luck with all the bowl action!
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, December 23rd at 11:00 AM
Conway, South Carolina
Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA (-11)
Neither of these teams boasts a strong defense, but two key factors will likely determine the outcome of this game. First, Coastal Carolina’s quarterback situation is in shambles, with both their starter and backup declaring for the transfer portal. This leaves an already mediocre offense in a tough sport, making it hard for them to keep pace.
Second, UTSA has stability at quarterback with Owen McCown, who is not in the portal and will continue to lead the Roadrunners’ top-20 offense, which averages over 440 yards per game. While I’d prefer the line to be in single digits, and these are still two 6-6 teams facing off, I believe UTSA’s firepower will simply be too much for the Chanticleers to handle. I’m taking the Roadrunners and giving the points.
The Pick: UTSA -11
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Monday, December 23rd at 2:30 PM
Boise, Idaho
Northern Illinois (-3.5) vs. Fresno State
With the lowest over-under of the entire bowl season set at 39, this game isn’t likely to deliver many fireworks, and laying more than a field goal always feels risky in low-scoring matchups. That said, Northern Illinois brings a top-5 defense to the table, and with Fresno State’s starting QB, Mikey Keene, entering the transfer portal and skipping this game, it’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs generating much offense against such a strong unit.
Fresno State’s defense is solid, but Northern Illinois should have enough offensive firepower to grind out a win and cover in what’s likely to be a low-scoring contest. The Huskies have been consistent all year, with their only real misstep being a baffling loss to Ball State. Every other loss came against bowl-bound teams, and let’s not forget their impressive win over Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this season. I’m confident in the Huskies and comfortable giving the points in this matchup.
The Pick: Northern Illinois -3.5
Hawaii Bowl
Tuesday, December 24th at 8:00 PM
Honolulu, Hawaii
South Florida (+3.5) vs. San Jose State
This matchup is a rare and refreshing sight in today’s bowl season, with minimal transfer portal activity or opt-outs. Both teams are close to full strength, and both head coaches will be on the sidelines. Neither defense is particularly strong, but South Florida’s is among the bottom 15 in the nation. On the flip side, the Bulls boast a potent offense, averaging over 420 yards and 30 points per game.
One of the most interesting quirks of this game is that neither team has a single win against a bowl-bound opponent this season. Calling them powerhouses would be a stretch, to say the least. In a game like this, I’ll side with the team getting more than a field goal. Go Bulls!
The Pick: South Florida +3.5
Game Above Sports Bowl
Thursday, December 26th at 2:00 PM
Detroit, Michigan
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo (+6.5)
I’m not a huge fan of this game, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the health of Pittsburgh QB Eli Holstein. Even if Holstein suits up, Toledo is no pushover. They bring above-average units on both sides of the ball and have proven they can compete, including an early-season win over SEC opponent Mississippi State. While not a marquee victory, it’s still notable, and their only loss to a non-bowl team is an outlier in an otherwise solid season.
On the other hand, the Panthers limp into this matchup on a five-game losing streak, struggling to find consistency. While I think Pitt might squeak out a win, I like Toledo getting nearly a touchdown. I’ll take the Rockets and the points.
The Pick: Toledo +6.5
Rate Bowl
Thursday, December 26th at 5:30 PM
Phoenix, Arizona
Rutgers vs. Kansas State (-7)
Rutgers has very few players in the transfer portal, and Kansas State has a handful, but the Wildcats will still have their dynamic QB Avery Johnson, who I expect to put up big numbers against a struggling Rutgers defense. While Rutgers earned 7 wins this season, it was largely due to a weak schedule, with only two victories coming against bowl-bound teams.
I had them pegged to hit the over on 6.5 wins before the season started, but that was more about their schedule than their talent. Motivation is always a concern in games like this, which keeps it lower on the confidence scale. That said, Kansas State is the better team across the board, and assuming they show up ready to play, I’m confidently backing the Wildcats to cover the touchdown spread.
The Pick: Kansas State -7
68 Ventures Bowl
Thursday, December 26th at 9:00 PM
Mobile, Alabama
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (-7.5)
Arkansas State finished the season at 7-5, with four of their losses coming against bowl-bound teams. However, only one of their wins came against a team with a winning record, which doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Bowling Green, on the other hand, comes in on a five-game winning streak and boasts a top-20 defense. While their offense isn’t particularly explosive, facing one of the worst defenses in the nation should give the Falcons plenty of opportunities to move the ball effectively.
Although I’m not a fan of the hook here, Bowling Green is the better team, with minimal transfer portal losses and clear motivation to secure the win. This is my least confident pick of the slate, but I’m still comfortable taking Bowling Green and laying the points.
The Pick: Bowling Green -7.5
