Hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas. From a football standpoint, we were treated to an absolute classic on Christmas Eve in Hawai’i. The Rainbow Warriors erased a 21-point deficit, took the lead late, gave it right back, then delivered the final blow with under ten seconds remaining on a perfectly thrown dime from the backup quarterback. Not only was it an incredible finish, it also cashed a ticket for us, which never hurts.

The rest of bowl season so far has been a bit uneven. There have been some fun moments mixed in with more than a few snoozers. Today we move into Wave 3, which features eight games all played today (Saturday, December 27th). That is a lot of football for one day, even by bowl season standards, and there are some legitimately interesting matchups on the slate.

Hopefully the Christmas decorations are mostly down, the fridge is stocked, and you can carve out a full day to settle in and watch the action. And if you decide to place a few bets along the way, below are my thoughts on each game along with confidence levels.

We’ll be back soon for Wave 4, with games starting on Monday.

*Note: One football indicates the lowest confidence and five footballs indicates the highest.

Military Bowl (Annapolis, MD)

Saturday, December 27th at 11:00 am

Pittsburgh (-11) vs. East Carolina

This game is a great example of how the modern era of college football, with opt-outs and the transfer portal, has changed not only the quality of bowl games but also the betting landscape.

East Carolina has had a very solid season, finishing 8–4 and winning five of its last six games. The Pirates picked up quality wins over Memphis and Army, both bowl teams, and all four of their losses came against opponents playing in the postseason. On paper, this looks like a team capable of competing. Unfortunately, the version of East Carolina taking the field Saturday is a shell of the one that earned those eight wins.

The Pirates will be without both their offensive and defensive coordinators, who are headed to Ole Miss and South Florida, respectively. They are also missing one of their top running backs in London Montgomery, who rushed for 742 yards and seven touchdowns, along with a solid wide receiver, their top tight end, and an offensive lineman who started 11 games. And that is before getting to the biggest loss of all. Starting quarterback Katin Houser has entered the transfer portal. Houser ranks 14th nationally in passing yards, brings dual-threat ability, and is a major reason this offense finished 12th in the country in total yards. This unit will look dramatically different, and that is a serious concern against a good Pitt defense.

Pittsburgh also enters at 8–4. While their resume does not include many marquee wins, the Panthers largely lost to strong competition. The loss at West Virginia earlier in the season stands out, but rivalry games can be strange, and I am not putting much weight on that result. Led by freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, Pitt has developed into a dangerous passing team, ranking 22nd nationally through the air. They now get to face an East Carolina pass defense that ranks 88th, and they will certainly exploit that advantage.

While Pitt has a few minor opt-outs and injuries, nothing significantly alters their outlook. East Carolina fans simply will not see the same team that piled up eight wins this season. Pitt is healthier, more intact, and better positioned. Motivation is always worth noting in these types of bowl games, but it is hard to see a path where the Panthers do not control this one and win comfortably.

The Pick: Pittsburgh -11

Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, NY)

Saturday, December 27th at 12:00 pm

Penn State (+2.5) vs. Clemson

Welcome to the Total Disappointment Bowl! In the preseason AP Poll, Penn State opened at No. 2 and Clemson at No. 4. If you ever needed a reason to scrap preseason polls altogether, these two programs and the way they performed in 2025 make a pretty convincing case.

Penn State finished at 6-6, including a brutal six-game losing streak that ultimately cost longtime head coach James Franklin his job. Clemson did not fare much better, finishing 7–5 and spending most of the fall amplifying the noise around Dabo Swinney and the direction of the program.

There are still a few appealing aspects to this matchup. First, it is two massive brands, even if both are coming off down seasons. Second, motivation should not be an issue. Penn State is eager to turn the page and begin the Matt Campbell era on a positive note, knowing offseason momentum matters. Clemson, meanwhile, badly needs a win to quiet an increasingly restless fan base and create some optimism heading into the winter.

It also helps that both teams are playing their best football of the season. Clemson has won four straight, while Penn State enters on a three-game winning streak.

That said, neither side will be at full strength. Both teams are dealing with opt-outs, transfers, and injuries. Clemson is particularly affected on defense, losing three of its top defenders to the NFL Draft, including DL Peter Woods, DL TJ Parker, and CB Aevion Terrell. That is a significant hit to a unit that already showed cracks earlier in the season.

I do not love either side here, but I lean toward Penn State. Their defense is closer to full strength, and while many assume the offense took a major hit after Drew Allar’s injury a few weeks ago, it has actually performed as a top-30 unit nationally over the last three games. Against a depleted Clemson defense, that should be enough to keep this competitive.

The Pick: Penn State +2.5

Fenway Bowl (Boston, MA)

Saturday, December 27th at 2:15 pm

UConn vs. Army (-9.5)

UConn put together a very respectable 9–3 season, highlighted by a win over eventual ACC champion Duke. But that résumé does not matter much now. As I’ve mentioned in the first few bowl writeups, bowl season today looks very different than it once did, and the UConn team taking the field Saturday will look nothing like the one that earned those nine wins.

The Huskies are without head coach Jim Mora, who did an outstanding job in Storrs over the past few seasons before leaving for Colorado State. They have also been hit hard by the transfer portal, losing twelve players. Yes twelve. And that does not even include starting quarterback Joe Fagnano, who is opting out of the game. This is a severely depleted roster.

They now face an Army team that finished 6–6 and has been maddeningly inconsistent at times, but the Black Knights come into this game at full strength. As expected, Army’s rushing attack is elite, ranking fourth nationally and averaging 243 yards per game. That is a massive problem for UConn, which already ranked 113th in run defense before the wave of transfers. Slowing down Army on the ground will be an uphill battle all day for the Huskies.

Army’s defense also deserves credit. It has quietly been solid most of the season, allowing just 21 points per game. It is hard to envision this depleted UConn offense getting anywhere near that number.

I expect Army to control the tempo, dominate on the ground, and dictate this game from start to finish. With the line still sitting in single digits, we are happy to back Army and give the points. 

The Pick: Army -9.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, FL)

Saturday, December 27th at 3:30 pm

Georgia Tech vs. BYU (-3.5)

Finally, we get a Saturday bowl matchup featuring two teams that actually had strong seasons and arrive with rosters largely intact. Minimal opt-outs, few transfers, and no major injury concerns mean we should see something close to the “real” Cougars and Yellow Jackets on the field, which is always refreshing this time of year.

Georgia Tech opened the season 8–0 and looked like a legitimate ACC title and CFP contender. The finish was disappointing though, as the Yellow Jackets dropped three of their final four games, though all three losses came against solid bowl teams. Senior quarterback Haynes King will be playing in his final collegiate game, and that alone provides plenty of motivation. He has been the heart and soul of this offense for the past two seasons and remains one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the country.

BYU followed a similar arc. The Cougars stayed in the Big 12 title and CFP conversation deep into the season before back-to-back losses ended those hopes. It is worth noting, however, that both losses came against Texas Tech, the No. 4 seed in the CFP and one of the best teams in the country.

This BYU team is very good, led by QB Bear Bachmeier, and owns six wins against bowl teams, an impressive résumé by any standard. Georgia Tech’s offense ranked in the top 20 for much of the season, but it has sputtered down the stretch. Even with King under center, I have less confidence in this unit, particularly against a capable and disciplined BYU defense.

I do not love either side here, but BYU is the more balanced team with the stronger overall résumé. Georgia Tech will also be without offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, with Chris Weinke taking over play-calling duties, which adds another variable.

This one sits lower on the confidence scale, but we will side with the better team and lay the small number with BYU.

The Pick: BYU -3.5

Arizona Bowl (Tucson, AZ)

Saturday, December 27th at 4:30 pm

Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State (-5.5)

Full disclosure: I went to Miami, as did my wife, and my daughter, and my son currently goes there as well. He is a cheerleader and will actually be on the sidelines in Tucson cheering on the RedHawks. All that said, let’s break this one down objectively.

Miami reached the MAC Championship Game and put together a respectable season, but this became a very different team once ultra-talented dual-threat quarterback Dequan Finn left the program about six weeks ago. Since then, head coach Chuck Martin has rotated through backup options, and either Henry Hesson or Thomas Gotkowski is expected to start. Frankly, neither inspires much confidence. Miami is 2–2 since Finn’s departure, with both wins coming against struggling MAC teams in Ball State and Buffalo.

The RedHawks are also shorthanded due to the transfer portal, losing key contributors on both sides of the ball. The most notable absence is offensive tackle Drew Tarrell, who started all twelve games and leaves a real hole up front.

Fresno State, on the other hand, comes in mostly intact. The Bulldogs have minimal opt-outs and are dealing with only a few injuries. They own the better record, the more complete roster, and the edge in overall talent. Offensively, neither team is particularly strong, but both play solid defense. Fresno State’s unit has been slightly better and currently ranks 14th nationally in yards allowed.

As much as I hope I am wrong given my Miami ties, this sets up well for Fresno State. Miami’s defense should keep things competitive early, but asking the Bulldogs to win by a touchdown or so feels very reasonable. That is where we will lean.

The Pick: Fresno State -5.5

New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM)

Saturday, December 27th at 5:45 pm

North Texas vs. San Diego State (+6.5)

This would have been a really fun regular-season matchup, but it should still be a solid bowl game. It is a bummer that North Texas lost head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State and is dealing with several key injuries and transfers. The good news for Mean Green fans is that while quarterback Drew Mestemaker has entered the transfer portal, all indications are that he will still play in this game. That is a big reason this line has climbed to 6.5.

North Texas owns the No. 1 scoring offense in the country, and much of that success runs through Mestemaker and his playmaking ability. If he is on the field, this offense will move the ball.

On the San Diego State side, the biggest news is the loss of starting quarterback Jayden Denegal, who is out after finally undergoing surgery for a nagging injury that bothered him most of the season. That puts backup Bert Emanuel Jr. under center. Emanuel transferred from Central Michigan in the offseason and lost the preseason quarterback battle, but he did appear in ten games with mixed results. He is athletic, can run when needed, and will have support from a strong ground game.

That run game should be a major factor, as the Aztecs will face one of the weakest run defenses in the country. And while North Texas will score points, San Diego State’s defense is very real, ranking inside the top 10 nationally.

This game likely comes down to Bert Emanuel Jr. If he can limit mistakes and make a few timely throws, San Diego State is well positioned. He will essentially be auditioning for next season, and I expect him to rise to the moment. With a strong defense and a reliable run game behind him, I like the Aztecs here getting nearly a touchdown.

The Pick: San Diego State (+6.5)

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL)

Saturday, December 27th at 7:30 pm

Virginia (+4) vs. Missouri 

This is another matchup that would have been fascinating during the regular season. Virginia put together one of its best seasons in recent memory, only to see it unravel in the ACC Championship Game against Duke, blowing a potential CFP bid. That kind of loss can cut two ways. It can lead to a letdown and apathy, or it can fuel a team eager to prove it still belonged on that stage.

Virginia’s offense is above average, but the real strength of this team is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cavaliers rank inside the top 20 nationally in both yards and points allowed, and just as importantly, they are also top 20 against the run.

That matters because Missouri’s offensive identity revolves around star running back Ahmad Hardy. With starting quarterback Beau Pribula opting out due to the transfer portal, the Tigers will almost certainly lean heavily on Hardy and the ground game.

Missouri is battle tested after grinding through a tough SEC schedule, but a deeper look reveals some cracks. Despite solid metrics on both offense and defense, the Tigers did not record a single win this season against a team that finished with a winning record.

This also feels like more of a letdown spot for Missouri than for Virginia. The Cavaliers appear proud of what they accomplished this season and see this game as a chance to build momentum heading into next year in a wide-open ACC. Getting points in this spot, we like Virginia to keep it close and potentially pull the upset.

The Pick: Virginia +4

Texas Bowl (Houston, TX)

Saturday, December 27th at 9:15 pm

LSU vs. Houston (-1.5)

The nightcap features two teams that had very surprising seasons, though for completely different reasons.

Let’s start with the Bayou Bengals. LSU entered the year ranked in the top 10 and led by Heisman-caliber quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Fast forward a few months and the Tigers are 7–5, head coach Brian Kelly has been fired, and incoming coach Lane Kiffin continues his reign as one of the most polarizing figures in the football South. LSU has lost four of its last six games, and its best win probably came back in August against Clemson.

They now face a Houston team that went just 4-8 last season but turned things around in a big way, finishing 9–3 this year. Their only truly head-scratching loss came at West Virginia in early November. The other two losses were against bowl teams TCU and Texas Tech. Houston is not flashy, but they are balanced, ranking inside the top 50 nationally in both total offense and total defense. Just as importantly, they come into this game with most of their key players available.

LSU is clearly the more talented roster, but it is also a program in disarray. Houston, on the other hand, should be highly motivated for the opportunity to knock off a name-brand SEC opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz is one of the more underrated coaches in the sport and owns a strong 4-1 record in bowl games. He will have his team ready.

In a spot where motivation and stability matter, we like the Cougars to take advantage and win this one along with the cover.

The Pick: Houston -1.5

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