We are officially more than halfway through bowl season, and we’re coming off a very strong Saturday, finishing 7–1. That pushes our non-CFP record to 13-9 and our overall mark to 14-12, which we’ll absolutely take. As we move deeper into bowl season, the matchups improve and the stakes rise, especially with the CFP quarterfinals looming.

Today’s breakdown focuses on Wave 4, which includes eight non-CFP bowl games played between December 29 and December 31. We’ll have a separate article breaking down all four CFP quarterfinal games shortly, but for now, let’s dive into this next slate and see if we can keep the momentum rolling. And yes, you'll notice we're backing more favorites than usual. That's just how it shakes out in this wave and I feel fine with it so let's jump in!

*Note: One football indicates the lowest confidence and five footballs indicates the highest.

Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, AL)

Monday, December 29th at 2:00 pm

Georgia Southern (-8.5) vs. Appalachian State

This is one of the least anticipated games in this wave, and the two teams arrive with very different situations.

Georgia Southern is about as close to full strength as you will see this time of year. They have avoided major transfer losses, opt outs, and significant injuries, which is a big advantage in bowl season. Appalachian State is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Their top two quarterbacks from the season have entered the transfer portal, and several other key contributors will not be available for this game.

It is also worth noting that Appalachian State may be the weakest team in the bowl field this year. They enter at 5-7, have no wins against teams with winning records, and have dropped five of their last six games.

Georgia Southern has not been a juggernaut either, but all of their losses came against bowl teams, and they already proved they can handle App State. These two met in early November, when the Eagles went on the road and won by two points.

In a neutral-site setting, with Georgia Southern close to full strength and Appalachian State dealing with heavy roster attrition and their late season collapse, this sets up well for the Eagles. I like Georgia Southern to cover the number comfortably here.

The Pick: Georgia Southern -8.5

Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)

Tuesday, December 30th at 2:00 pm

Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-9.5)

This is another one we have to grind through before we get to the bigger brands and better matchups, and it comes with a hefty line.

Louisiana Tech enters at 7-5 and will be without one of its top running backs, Omiri Wiggins, along with a handful of defensive contributors. They have also dealt with quarterback injuries throughout the season, but the emergence of backup Trey Kukuk has been encouraging. Since taking over as the full-time starter, Kukuk has led the Bulldogs to two straight wins. His passing numbers have been modest, but his impact as a runner has stood out, rushing for 315 yards over those two games and giving the offense a needed spark.

Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, limps into this game on a three-game losing streak with zero wins against teams that finished with winning records. The Chanticleers recently fired head coach Tim Beck, with defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson stepping in as interim. The problems go well beyond the sideline, though. Coastal Carolina owns one of the worst defenses in the country by yards allowed and ranks in the bottom 20 offensively as well.

Louisiana Tech is not elite on either side of the ball, but they are far more stable and complete than Coastal Carolina right now. I could see the Chanticleers hanging around briefly early, but into the second half this matchup tilts heavily toward the Bulldogs. I am comfortable laying the points and fully expect Louisiana Tech to pull away.

The Pick: Louisiana Tech -9.5

Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN)

Tuesday, December 30th at 5:30 pm

Tennessee vs. Illinois (+2.5)

This one should be a fun watch. An SEC vs Big Ten matchup always carries a little extra juice, and while neither team is elite, both spent time in the Top 25 this season and have talented rosters.

Tennessee comes in with a few notable absences. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is out, and wide receiver Chris Brazzell II and cornerback Colton Hood have declared for the NFL Draft. Illinois has a key loss as well, with defensive lineman Gabe Jacas heading to the draft. Outside of those departures, both teams should have most of their core players available.

Motivation is always tricky in games like this, especially when both programs fell short of preseason expectations. Still, beating an above-average opponent from another power conference is a meaningful incentive, and both Josh Heupel and Bret Bielema are experienced enough to have their teams ready.

Tennessee’s résumé is interesting. All four losses came against Top 15 teams, including three CFP participants, but they did not record a single win against a bowl team. Illinois does not blow you away either, though they do own wins over USC and Duke and have won three of their last four games.

The Volunteers clearly have the edge offensively, ranking inside the top 10 and led by quarterback Joey Aguilar. Losing Brazzell hurts, but Tennessee should still be able to move the ball through the air. Illinois, however, holds the advantage defensively. The Illini should be able to limit the run and apply enough pressure to make things uncomfortable for Aguilar without his top target.

Illinois also has a steady, veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer, which matters in a game that could come down to a few key possessions. This is one of my lower-confidence picks on the slate, but I lean toward the Illini getting the points in what feels like a tight, competitive game.

The Pick: Illinois +2.5

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX)

Tuesday, December 30th at 9:00 pm

USC (-6.5) vs. TCU

Lincoln Riley had his best season out west, guiding USC to a 9-3 record with quality wins over bowl teams Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa. Their three losses came against strong opponents in Notre Dame, Illinois, and Oregon. Led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, the Trojans boast the sixth most explosive offense in the nation based on yards gained.

That said, USC will not be at full strength. They are likely without their top two wide receivers, Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, both of whom have declared for the NFL Draft. That is a meaningful hit to an offense that thrives on big plays.

TCU enters at 8-4 after a wildly inconsistent season. The Horned Frogs own wins over bowl teams Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU, but also suffered a puzzling loss to Kansas State and were blown out by 31 points at BYU six weeks ago. TCU comes in with a top 10 passing offense, but there is a major asterisk attached. Starting quarterback Josh Hoover announced last week that he is entering the transfer portal and will not play in this game. 

While USC technically has more opt outs, losing Hoover is a massive blow to TCU’s offensive identity. Sonny Dykes is an excellent coach, but this is a tough spot for his team against a more talented roster. With the spread sitting under a touchdown, I like USC to take control and cover here.

The Pick: USC -6.5

Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL)

Wednesday, December 31st at 3:00 pm

Michigan vs. Texas (-7.5)

Putting the bowl game aside for a moment, Michigan fans should be ecstatic about the recent announcement that longtime Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham will be taking over in Ann Arbor. After several years of dark clouds hanging over the program, despite a national championship just two seasons ago, and capped off by the Sherrone Moore mess a few weeks back, Whittingham is exactly what Michigan needs right now. The future feels steady again.

That said, those dividends will not pay off immediately, and this bowl matchup against an ultra-talented, albeit inconsistent, Texas team could present real problems. Both sides are dealing with opt outs and injuries, but two of the biggest quarterback names entering the season, Arch Manning for Texas and Bryce Underwood for Michigan, will still be under center.

Michigan appears to be the more shorthanded team. They are dealing with key injuries along the offensive line, at running back, and on the defensive side of the ball, and this was not an especially strong team during the regular season to begin with. Their best win likely came against Washington, and all three of their losses came by double digits to quality opponents in Oklahoma, USC, and Ohio State.

Texas, meanwhile, falls into the category of one of the more disappointing teams relative to preseason expectations, though not to the level of Penn State, Clemson, or LSU. Losses to Georgia and Ohio State are understandable, but the defeat against Florida was puzzling. Still, what stands out is how the Longhorns have closed the season. They have won six of their last seven games, including a huge rivalry win over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend.

Both teams bring strong defenses and inconsistent offenses into this matchup, but I trust Texas more in this spot. They have more talent available, more stability heading into the game, and better momentum. I expect the Longhorns to pull away and win by double digits, making them the side to lay the points with here.

The Pick: Texas -7.5

ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, FL)

Saturday, December 27th at 5:45 pm

Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-4)

Vanderbilt has put together one of the best seasons in school history, boasts a Heisman finalist at quarterback in Diego Pavia, and recently locked up head coach Clark Lea for the foreseeable future. It has been a terrific 2025 for Vandy fans. The Commodores enter this game at 10–2 with only one major opt out, though it is a significant one, as Mackey Award winner and the nation’s top tight end Eli Stowers will not play.

Even without Stowers, Vanderbilt still brings a top-10 total offense into this matchup and should be able to move the ball. That said, Iowa’s strength lies squarely on the defensive side, where they rank top 10 nationally and allow fewer than 16 points per game. That unit will make life difficult for Pavia and company.

The key question in this game is Iowa’s offense. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has flashed at times, but this remains a bottom-10 passing attack, meaning the Hawkeyes will lean heavily on the run. Unfortunately for Iowa, Vanderbilt’s run defense is very good.

I think Pavia comes into this game with a chip on his shoulder after the perceived Heisman snub and looks to make a statement in what could be his final college game. Iowa has lost three of its last four bowl games, all against SEC opponents. While this one likely goes deep into the fourth quarter, I like the Commodores to cover and put a bow on a truly storybook season.

The Pick: Vanderbilt -4

Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX)

Wednesday, December 31st at 2:00 pm

Arizona State vs. Duke (-3)

This is a strange line to me and one that definitely gives me pause. Arizona State had a solid season and enters at 8–4, but they are dealing with a slew of injuries, opt outs, and transfer losses totaling more than a dozen players. That group includes their best player in starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. Duke, meanwhile, won the ACC Championship and despite an up and down season, enters this bowl game nearly at full strength. I also think the Blue Devils are motivated after being left out of the CFP despite winning their conference.

Arizona State has won three of its last four games and owns one of the most impressive wins of the entire college football season, handing No. 4 seeded CFP participant Texas Tech its only loss back in October. That said, as mentioned earlier, this roster is now dealing with major holes on both sides of the ball due to attrition, and I have a hard time seeing them sustain that level of play for a full 60 minutes.

Duke, on the other hand, has starting quarterback Darian Mensah available, and he has been excellent for much of the season. He ranks fifth nationally in passing yards and rarely looks rattled. The Blue Devils’ five losses all came against bowl teams, including one to CFP participant Tulane. They enter this game on a three-game winning streak and are coming off an ACC Championship win over 11–3 Virginia.

I expect this game to be competitive late, but Arizona State simply has too many question marks right now. We’ll take Duke and lay the small number.

The Pick: Duke -3

Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV)

Wednesday, December 31st at 3:30 pm

Nebraska vs. Utah (-14.5)

Despite losing long-time head coach Kyle Whittingham to Michigan and not having him on the sidelines for this game, Utah enters on a five-game winning streak and with one of the highest-scoring, most explosive offenses in the country. The Utes are led by dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier and a dominant rushing attack that ranks second in all of FBS, trailing only Navy, at 267 rushing yards per game.

Nebraska limps in having lost three of its last four games and will be without super stud quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is injured and very likely could transfer during the offseason. I do like the Cornhuskers’ defense, and head coach Matt Rhule will have this team mentally prepared, but I just do not see how Nebraska keeps this game close. They have lost their last two games by a combined 51 points, and that was against Iowa and Penn State, two below-average offenses, and that is being generous.

Utah still has Whittingham’s stamp all over this program, and the Utes went 11–6 in bowl games under him, even though they have strangely lost their last five. While I could see a backdoor cover scenario, I am not sold on Nebraska’s ability to score enough points to stay competitive. Utah should be able to move the ball at will, and that ultimately decides this one.

The Pick: Utah -14.5

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