We’ve still got the CFP semifinals and national title game ahead, but this wave officially wraps up the regular bowl season slate. We’ve held our own so far at 21-16-1, and even if this final card is a little meh, let’s close it out strong and roll into 2026 on a high note. Alright Sandman Nation, let’s get to it.

*Note: One football indicates the lowest confidence and five footballs indicates the highest.

Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX)

Friday, January 2nd at 2:00 pm

Rice vs. Texas State (-16.5)

What an ugly game, and a bit of an indictment of what bowl season has become. I’ve shared before how much I love having bowl games and bonus football during the holidays, but I admit that this one tests that theory. Rice enters at 5-7 and only made a bowl because of their academic rating. Texas State is 6-6 and finished fifth in their division in the Sun Belt. It’s safe to say neither of these teams is very good. Still, it’s football to watch and bet on, so let’s break it down.

Rice has lost three of its last four and will be without starting quarterback Chase Jenkins and his backup Drew Deviller. That’s a massive problem, because the third-string option is a freshman with no playing experience, and this offense already ranked 126th out of 136 FBS teams in total offense. Even against a below-average Texas State defense, the Owls are going to have a very difficult time moving the ball.

Texas State, on the other hand, brings an explosive offense into this game, averaging more than 482 yards and 36 points per game, both near the top of the FBS. The Bobcats are mostly at full strength, though I don’t love the loss of center Brock Riker, who started all 12 games and is opting out. Even so, this offense should be just fine against a depleted Rice roster. Beyond the quarterback situation, the Owls are also dealing with additional transfers and injuries.

This is a big number, but I like the Bobcats here. They’ve won three straight games, all by 17 points or more, and they’re essentially at full strength. It’s a lower-confidence play, but I’m backing Texas State to cover.

The Pick: Texas State -16.5

Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN)

Friday, January 2nd at 5:30 pm

Navy vs. Cincinnati (+7.5)

Cincinnati has had a strange season. They entered the year with whispers that head coach Scott Satterfield needed a turnaround, and things actually looked promising early. Despite an opening-week three-point loss to Nebraska, the Bearcats looked impressive and went on to win their next seven games behind quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Then they hit a complete wall, losing four straight games, though all four losses came against solid bowl teams.

The bigger concern is that Cincinnati will not only be without Sorsby in this game due to his transfer, but also without 12 other players who contributed in varying degrees during the season. It’s safe to say they’ll be missing a decent amount of talent when they take the field on Friday.

Navy, on the other hand, and unsurprisingly, has no opt-outs and is coming off a very strong season at 10-2. Their two losses were respectable, coming against Notre Dame and North Texas, and they picked up several quality wins over bowl teams, including South Florida, Memphis, and Army. Shocking no one, Navy enters this game leading the nation in rushing at 273 yards per game, and Cincinnati’s run defense has been poor all season, so the Midshipmen should have plenty of success on the ground.

Navy quarterback Blake Horvath is special, a senior, and will be looking to go out with an emphatic bowl win. Cincinnati is in a tough spot, with no proven starting quarterback and several defensive starters missing from a unit that already struggled at times.

All of that said, and I realize I just made a strong case for Navy, but I just have a sneaky feeling that Cincinnati hangs around in this one and ultimately covers. Satterfield, despite the challenges and the hot seat, is 4-1 in bowl games, and Navy has yet to beat a Power 4 program this season. Even nowhere near full strength, the Bearcats still have enough talent to show up and compete.

This could come down to the very end, and my confidence level is low here, but we’re backing Cincinnati and taking the points.

The Pick: Cincinnati +7.5

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, NC)

Friday, January 2nd at 9:00 pm

Wake Forest (+3.5) vs. Mississippi State

This is an extremely strange line to me. Mississippi State is 5-7, enters this game having lost seven of its last eight, and their last win against a team with a winning record came back on September 6.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, comes in at 8-4 and have won three of their last four. They do have some opt-outs and transfers that could matter, most notably star RB Demond Claiborne, who rushed for 909 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. They are also missing several of their top wide receivers. Even so, I really like what QB Robby Ashford has done this year, as he has put together several strong performances through the air.

Mississippi State’s defense is atrocious, ranking 112th out of 136 FBS teams. Their offense is average at best, and now they have to face Wake Forest’s strength, a very solid defense that ranks 26th nationally in yards allowed and gives up fewer than 23 points per game.

Mississippi State is without its defensive coordinator and has a few transfers out, but otherwise enters mostly intact. I don’t think that matters much here. Wake Forest has been the better team all season, and even with some starters missing, they have enough depth to win this game outright. Getting more than a field goal with the team I believe is clearly better overall and playing in their home state is good news, so we’ll take the Demon Deacons.

The Pick: Wake Forest +3.5

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)

Friday, January 2nd at 9:00 pm

Arizona (-1.5) vs. SMU

The Holiday Bowl always seems to provide great entertainment, and with these two teams refreshingly entering this game basically at full strength, with virtually no opt-outs or significant injuries, this should be a really fun contest to watch on Friday evening.

SMU entered the ACC last season and promptly made the ACC Championship Game and ultimately the first-ever 12-team CFP playoff. Thus, with stud QB Kevin Jennings and a talented roster returning this season, expectations were once again high. By most accounts, however, the Mustangs underachieved. They finished 8-4 and fifth in the ACC, though they do own a very impressive win over CFP semifinalist Miami (FL) back in early November. SMU has won three of its last four games, but outside of Miami, their other wins against bowl teams came against Clemson and Louisville, while losses to average bowl teams like California, Wake Forest, and TCU stand out.

Arizona enters this game at 9-3, with all three losses coming in the middle of the season against solid bowl teams in BYU, Houston, and Iowa State. Since then, the Wildcats have won five straight, including a dominant 23-7 win over rival Arizona State to close out the regular season. QB Noah Fifita has been solid, if not spectacular, and the Arizona offense has improved nicely during this winning streak.

The real story in this matchup, though, will be when SMU has the ball. Jennings is still an ultra-talented quarterback and leads the nation’s tenth-ranked passing offense. But he now faces the fifth-best pass defense in the country, and this Wildcat unit can be downright ferocious.

This is easily the best game on the Friday slate and one I personally can’t wait to watch. I think Arizona is the better team, has more momentum, and wants to prove this season was no fluke by securing a double-digit win total. I don’t love that Arizona head coach Brent Brennan went 0-3 in bowl games at San Jose State, but something tells me that streak ends here in his second season in Tucson. We’ll take the small favorite Wildcats and lay the point and a half.

The Pick: Arizona -1.5

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