Bierman’s Best Bets – Week 1 (all lines come from DraftKings)
Football is back, and so are my best bets of the weekend. As we dive into Week 1, let’s start with an intriguing matchup in Boulder.
North Dakota State (+9.5) at Colorado
If you’ve been following my season predictions, you know I’m not buying into the Colorado hype this year, and that skepticism certainly carries into this game.
NDSU comes into this season with a storied history, having claimed nine FCS championships in the past 13 years. Currently ranked #2 in the FCS, the Bison are once again expected to be in the thick of the title hunt. Coach Tim Polasek steps in to replace Matt Entz, who left to take a position on USC’s staff, and he will keep this program at an elite level.
This year, NDSU boasts what might be the best defense in the FCS, and they also bring back Cam Miller at quarterback, a seasoned five-year starter who’s unlikely to be rattled by the FBS-level Buffaloes. Miller’s experience will be crucial as NDSU seeks to continue its impressive track record against FBS teams, having won six straight games against them dating back to 2010, including a notable victory over a #13-ranked Iowa team in 2016.
While the elevation in Colorado and the Buffaloes’ speed and athleticism pose concerns, the 9.5-point spread in favor of Colorado feels excessive. NDSU has consistently proven it can compete with—and beat—FBS competition. Given the caliber of this Bison team, taking NDSU +9.5 is one of my top bets of the weekend.
Elon (+23.5) at Duke
Staying with the FCS, I’m also keeping an eye on the matchup between Elon and Duke, where I believe the Phoenix will keep the game much closer than the line suggests. Elon has been a strong team in the Colonial Athletic Association, finishing 8-4 last season and making it to the FCS playoffs. They return 15 starters from that squad, bringing experience and stability to both sides of the ball.
While their offense might not be flashy, it’s reliable and capable of moving the ball effectively. Their defense is particularly strong and should be able to contain Duke’s offense, especially this early in the season.
While Mike Elko did wonders in Durham and helped transform the program, he is now at Texas A&M and in steps Manny Diaz for Duke. I have been vocal that Riley Leonard will not fix all of Notre Dame’s issues, but he did bring leadership and confidence to the Blue Devils, and his loss will be felt. Henry Belin IV is stepping in as the new quarterback, but with limited playing time last season, I expect him to be a bit nervous and rusty, which could limit Duke’s offensive productivity.
Duke should still win this game, but I expect it to be much closer than the spread indicates. I’m leaning heavily toward the Phoenix to keep it competitive.
Bonus Tip: While I’m not confident enough to make it one of my Best Bets of the weekend, I also really like the under in this game, currently set at 49.5. Elon brings back 8 defensive starters, Duke is breaking in a new qb, and both teams will rely heavily on their running games.
Penn State -8.5 at West Virginia
If you checked out my top Over-Under bets for the college football season, you know I’m high on Penn State. This team is stacked on both sides of the ball and could very well be James Franklin’s best squad yet. They’re gritty, well-prepared, and have a favorable schedule that they’re poised to exploit. However, they open with a tricky road game against rival West Virginia, where the atmosphere at Milan Puskar Stadium is sure to be intense.
The Mountaineers are expected to improve from their 6-7 record last year, but they’ll face a tough challenge against this powerhouse Penn State team. Dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene flashed potential late last season and is a threat with his legs, but West Virginia’s offense leans heavily on the run and struggles with consistent passing. Penn State’s defensive front is a formidable unit, which will make it tough for Neal Brown’s team to run against them.
On the offensive side, Penn State features key playmakers like Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen. While the first half might be close, I’m confident that Penn State’s explosive offensive firepower will allow them to pull away in the second half, leading to a comfortable double-digit victory.
Nebraska -27.5 vs UTEP
I have gulped the Cornhusker Kool-Aid and am fully on board with Nebraska this season under Matt Rhule. Despite their 5-7 record last year, Nebraska was just a few plays away from a much better outcome, losing four games by three points and one by seven. Rhule has a proven track record of turning things around in his second year, as seen during his time at Temple and Baylor. This year, he welcomes highly-touted quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is expected to start immediately and provide a much-needed boost to the offense. The team has toughened up under Rhule’s disciplined approach, and they’re eager to prove they’re back on the right track.
On the other side, UTEP is coming off a rough 3-9 season and enters this game with low expectations. New head coach Scotty Walden steps into a tough situation, especially facing Nebraska in Lincoln. While UTEP returns quarterback Gavin Hardison, their offense struggled mightily last season, finishing 117th out of 131 FBS teams. Their defense wasn’t much better and will likely struggle against Nebraska’s bigger, stronger lineup.
Nebraska is set to kick off their comeback season in style, and I expect them to delight their fans with a dominant performance. Lay the points and rest easy as the Cornhuskers cruise to a comfortable victory.
Under 63.5 LSU vs USC (in Las Vegas)
Yes, both teams boasted explosive offenses last year—USC finished third, and LSU sixth in total offensive rankings. While both programs are expected to remain strong offensively, it’s important to note that they each lost their star quarterbacks. Caleb Williams, who was drafted first overall, and Jayden Daniels, who went second, were pivotal to their teams’ success. As a result, these offenses might look different and could face challenges in finding their rhythm and establishing their identity early in the season.
Additionally, both teams made significant efforts to shore up their defenses, which were problematic last season. At USC, Lincoln Riley brought in a new defensive coordinator, added talent through the transfer portal, and secured a strong recruiting class, especially at linebacker and in the secondary. Similarly, in Baton Rouge, Coach Brian Kelly focused on improving LSU’s defense, particularly through the transfer portal, adding key players like standout cornerback Denver Harris from Texas A&M.
Expect a close, competitive game with some explosive plays, but it’s likely to be lower-scoring than last year’s matchups. A 28-24 final score seems realistic, offering a comfortable cushion for the under.
